NFL Wild Card Round Picks: Spread, Straight and Over/Under

The NFL’s regular season finished with a flourish as some teams’ hopes were smothered while others rose to the occasion. We are seeing a historical shift in the quarterback position, as not only do we have three rookie QBs, but three second-year signal-callers who also led their teams to the postseason  in 2012. 

The Vikings and Redskins both sealed playoff berths with wins last week, shutting the door on teams such as Chicago and New York, which were both hoping for some late-season miracles.

With a third-straight solid week to close out the season, including a respectable 12-4 straight up mark, my final regular-season totals came out like this:

Straight: 172-83 (67 percent)

Spread: 131-124 (51 percent)

Over/Under: 132-123 (52 percent)

Coming in just under 57 percent for the year, I had hoped for better but easily could have finished worse after sitting right at .500 overall through Week 6. Although the regular season of picks is through, the real excitement begins now when everything is on the line. Sure, it’s tougher to pick playoff games, but that makes it even sweeter when you pick them right.

Here’s my take on how this week’s Wild Card matchups will play out.

Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) at Houston Texans (O/U = 43.5)

The week opens up in Houston as the AFC South champions host the six seed Bengals. This team looked for all the world to have home-field advantage locked up four weeks ago, but with an unexpected 1-3 finish to the year, they squandered even a first-round bye. They must instead wake up quickly to face one of the league’s hottest teams in the Wild Card round. 

The league’s leading sacker J.J Watt, who finished with 20.5 on the year, should be licking his chops preparing to face the offensive line that allowed the third most sacks this season.

The Bengals have pulled out wins in seven of their last eight, with their only loss coming by a single point against a Dallas team that defined desperate at the time. Sophomore QB Andy Dalton showed improvement in every major statistical category in his second season in the league and has now led his team to the postseason in each of those two years.

Cincinnati was actually better on the road this year (6-2) than at home (4-4), so they shouldn’t be too worried about playing in front of the opposing crowd.

Playoff games often come down to momentum, and there’s no question that the Bengals have the edge there.  I’m taking them to upset this reeling Houston team and move on to Mile High.

Straight: Cincinnati

Spread: Cincinnati

O/U: Over

 

Minnesota Vikings (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers (O/U = 46)

With their backs against the wall and history on the line, the Vikings and Adrian Peterson showed up big last week. Facing these same Packers, they solidified their playoff spot behind 199 rushing yards by Peterson, who finished the regular season with 2,097 yards on the ground, just eight short of the all-time single season mark. 

After starting 4-1, they took a lot of folks by surprise, but their offense stalled a bit after losing all-purpose weapon Percy Harvin. They closed out the year with a flourish, however, winning their final four and hope to make back-to-back victories against their division foe.

The Packers’ loss to Minny was their first since November, and with much less to play for, it was not a complete shocker to see them drop that contest. Despite the loss, they won the division by a game, and Aaron Rodgers finished ahead of all other QBs with a 108.0 QB Rating to make it four straight years over the century mark in that category for him.

This Green Bay team has rarely been healthy this season, but despite some nicks and bruises, it appears they will have their entire offensive unit at Rodgers’ disposal in this one, a fact that should scare the Vikings who ranked 24th against the pass this year. I don’t see the Pack losing back to back, especially coming back home.

Straight: Green Bay

Spread: Minnesota

O/U: Over

 

Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens (O/U = 47)

The battle in Baltimore features major storylines for both teams: the second game in the return of Chuck Pagano for Indianapolis and the recently declared impending retirement for the Ravens’ Ray Lewis. 

The Chuckstrong story has captivated the league all season, rightfully so, and there will surely be a lot of people pulling for this Cinderella team to pull the upset here and continue their dream season. 

Along with the love for Coach Chuck, there has also been a revitalization of the Indy fanbase around star rookie Andrew Luck, who swiftly turned this team—which won just twice last season—into a playoff squad once again.

Ray Lewis shocked the football public this week by announcing that he will retire from the game of football following the 2012-13 season. Undeniably one of the best linebackers to ever play the game, this master motivator has yet again given his team a spark to win that they wouldn’t have felt without his announcement.

It’s tough to imagine Baltimore losing at home to end Lewis’ career, and something tells me that his declaration will give them at least enough gusto to squeak past the darling Colts and into the Divisional round next week.

Straight: Baltimore

Spread: Baltimore

O/U: Under

 

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Washington Redskins (O/U = 46)

The weekend will close out with arguably its most intriguing matchup as opposing rookie QBs RGIII and Russell Wilson face off in the nation’s capital. The Redskins took care of business last week against Dallas to clinch the NFC East and the four seed in the Wild Card round.

Lost in the hype of Griffin’s season has been another ‘Skins rookie sensation in RB Alfred Morris. The undersized back out of FAU has quietly rushed for the third-most yards of all time by a first-year runner and was second behind only Adrian Peterson across the entire NFL this season. On any other team he would be a legitimate rookie of the year candidate, but ironically he’s only the runner-up in his own city.

Speaking of Rookie of the Year, the Seahawks have found a quiet superstar in their own rookie quarterback. After starting training camp with Russell Wilson basically out of the picture, it’s hard to believe this team could have made anywhere near the run they have without the creative young talent, and he has earned his way into the spotlight.

Seattle won their final five games of the year behind the efforts of that youngster, and also sport a top-three rusher in Marshawn Lynch who ended the year just 23 yards shy of Morris.

With so much discussion regarding which of these two young sensations has played better this year, I can think of no better way to find out then to pit them against each other in this win-or-go-home matchup. While I have no doubt that Russell Wilson will continue to succeed beyond this season, I have to give the edge to RGIII at home as it just feels like he is poised to do something special before it’s all said and done this year.

Straight: Washington

Spread: Washington

O/U: Under