Car Weights Declared and My Race Prediction

Pos. Driver                  Car weight

1.  Jenson Button           664.5kg
2.  Rubens Barrichello      666.5kg
3.  Sebastien Vettel        657kg
4.  Robert Kubica           650kg
5.  Nico Rosberg            657kg
6.  Felipe Massa            654kg
7.  Kimi Raikkonen          655.5kg
8.  Mark Webber             662kg
9.  Nick Heidfeld           691.5kg
10.  Fernando Alonso         680.7kg
11.  Kazuki Nakajima         685.3kg
12.  Heikki Kovalainen       690.6kg
13.  Sebastien Buemi         675.5kg
14.  Nelson Piquet           694.1kg
15.  Giancarlo Fisichella    689kg
16.  Adrian Sutil            684.5kg
17.  Sebastien Bourdais      662.5kg
18.  Lewis Hamilton          655kg
19.  Jarno Trulli            660kg
20.  Timo Glock              670kg

Each car's minimum weight including the driver is 605kg, so anything over that is fuel load. (That includes the cars with the KERs system)

Each lap around Albert Park uses around 2.5kg of fuel.

Therefore we can see that Brawn GP are heavier than the cars behind them. Their qualifying pace is real. They didn’t go on a lighter fuel load. As you can see Button has 2.0kg less fuel than Barrichello.

Button was 3 tenths faster than Barrichello, with one lap less of fuel on board. Fuel corrected Button was still the quicker Brawn driver today. Both Brawn GP cars should be able to run for at least 20 laps in the race. I would estimate they will come in about laps 21 and 22.

Kubica is the lightest on the grid, so therefore his lap wasn't as impressive as we might have first thought. He could be stopping on as low as lap 15. So that’s at least 5 or 6 laps before the Brawn GP drivers come in to pit.

Vettel and Rosberg are between Kubica and Brawn GP in terms of fuel load. I reckon they will probably come in around lap 18/19. So they will come in around three or four laps before the Brawn GPs.

We can see that Ferrari may feel the need to be a bit worried about their pace. They were around 0.8 seconds off the pace of Button, and with a lighter fuel load than Vettel and Rosberg. So Ferrari were over a 1.0 second off the ultimate pace today, when you take fuel loads into account. That is extremely bad news for them.

I am sure they will be more competitive when it comes to the race, but they will struggle if they continue to be that poor in qualifying.

The Mclaren drivers are doing different strategies. Hamilton looks like he is just going to go for it, and is going light and aggressive. Kovalainen on the other hand looks much heavier, so could well be going for a one stop race.

It needs to be remembered that any safety car period will change the laps drivers come in on, as fuel can be saved during a safety car period.

Predictions for the race

Brawn GP are a long way ahead. They were comfortably quickest today, with heavier fuel onboard. Their long run pace in testing was even stronger than their one lap pace. So as long as they get through turn one unscathed, and don’t have any reliability gremlins, then they should have the race well under control.

The race is a battle between Button and Barrichello. It will be quite close. Barrichello’s long runs have been very competitive throughout winter testing, and slightly ahead of Button. Therefore he will give Button a big challenge.

Button is race favourite as he is the man on pole. Rubens does have one more lap of fuel on board though. He would need to be very close to Button to pass in the pits though, with just 1 lap extra. He does at least have the tactical advantage. He can opt to run longer in his second stint than Jenson if he wants, or do a short stint to get ahead of him at the second stop.

I think it will be a decent race between them, but Button should hold on for the victory.

Behind could be an extremely good scrap for the podium between Kubica, Vettel, Rosberg, the two Ferraris and Webber. It will come down to who has the best start, and who can look after their slick tyres best over the long stints.

I think for third place I will be placing my bet on Rosberg, and that would be a fantastic result for Williams.

Mclaren will have an uphill afternoon, and I can’t see them making that much progress unless we get a race of attrition, which is always a possibility in Melbourne. Maybe one point at the very best.

Toyota could have got a great result tomorrow, but a flexi-wing infringement has put both cars at the back of the grid. The best they can hope for is 1 or 2 points.

So my top five prediction for tomorrow:

1.    Button

2.    Barrichello

3.    Rosberg

4.    Raikkonen

5.    Vettel

And what about the number of front wings that are left at turn one?

I think I will take a stab in the dark and go for three. I am sure the drivers will be fully aware that the new front wings are more vulnerable than last season. Therefore they won't take any stupid risks into turn one.

We could lose more front wings in failed overtaking moves during the race. The braking zones are extremely bumpy, so making a move stick won't be easy.