NFL Week 17 Picks: Underrated Divisional Matchups with Huge Playoff Implications
When division rivals square off for the second time in the NFL regular season, all bets should be off.
In Week 17's slate that features matchups between several playoff hopefuls going up against each other, there are several underrated, heated contests that may have bigger point spreads but foster huge playoff implications.
All three of the following showdowns should prove to be extremely physical, with the underdogs eager to spoil their opponents' ideal postseason plans.
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Chicago Bears (9-6) at Detroit Lions (4-11)
Two of the game's most explosive QB-WR combos will be on display in Detroit's Matthew Stafford-Calvin Johnson tandem and the revamped Jay Cutler-Brandon Marshall connection.
There are far more critical factors that will determine the outcome of this NFC North clash, though.
An injury to Bears RB Matt Forte that could limit him would be a big blow to the offense, especially with thin depth behind him after Michael Bush's injury.
The shoddy blocking Cutler consistently gets from his offensive line will allow Detroit's terrific defensive front to get pressure. If there is no running game to at least keep them somewhat honest, it would spell trouble for the Bears.
Forte, LB Brian Urlacher and Pro Bowl starting CB Charles Tillman are all listed as questionable for Sunday's must-win game (h/t ESPN), which will get Chicago to the playoffs if the Minnesota Vikings lose.
The Lions should also have a key edge on the ground against a banged up Bears D, where Mikel Leshoure has emerged as the featured workhorse back.
Better balance on offense and superior health should result in a victory for what has been a severely underachieving Detroit team that is far more talented than their record indicates.
Final Score: Lions 24, Bears 17
Miami Dolphins (7-8) at New England Patriots (11-4)
The impressive blowout victory over AFC-leading Houston could have easily been sandwiched by three losses for New England. The Patriots have shown vulnerability recently, and only beat the Dolphins by seven points in their last matchup in Week 13.
Surprisingly, it was the Pats who controlled the time of possession in the first game with nearly a seven-minute advantage. Miami's defense stood surprisingly stingy, limiting the high-powered, Tom Brady-led offense to just 23 points on the afternoon.
The Dolphins run the ball and stop the run effectively, but the obvious X-factor is No. 8 overall pick Ryan Tannehill. In his past two starts—albeit against competition like the Jaguars and the Bills—some exciting trends have emerged in the rookie signal-caller's play.
For one thing, Tannehill is being more aggressive, producing more big plays in the passing game despite the absence of trusty slot receiver Davone Bess.
Tannehill is also using his legs much more effectively. As a former wide receiver at Texas A&M—and a very good one at that—it's obvious that Tannehill has great speed at the QB position. Until recently, he hadn't utilized it to his advantage, but he has ripped off 30-yard runs in consecutive weeks.
That could give the Pats' defense a headache, and their lackluster secondary may not be as effective in limiting Tannehill as they were the first time due to his recent improvement.
It's nearly impossible to bet against Brady and Co. at home, though. The Patriots won't control the clock as effectively as they did before, but they will find a way to win to stay in the mix for a first-round bye.
Final Score: Patriots 31, Dolphins 27
Arizona Cardinals (5-10) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4-1)
This may sound silly, but this is a clash between NFC West foes with incredibly strong defenses. The problem, of course, is that the Cardinals don't have a quarterback.
Or do they?
It's always a bad sign when a team turns to its fourth starting QB in one season, but such has been the inevitable reality in Arizona. An injury to Kevin Kolb thrust both John Skelton and seventh-round pick Ryan Lindley into action.
A combination of putrid pass protection and general incompetence under center has been the Cardinals' downfall in 2012 after an astonishing 4-0 start. Now it's apparently Brian Hoyer's turn to take the reins, according to Mike Jurecki of Xtra910.com:
"Whiz announces Brian Hoyer as the starter for the 49ers game on Sunday,Hoyer will be the 4th different starting QB this year for the Cards
— Mike Jurecki (@mikejurecki) December 26, 2012"
There is at least a flicker of hope for Hoyer since he got to learn behind one of the best QBs to ever play for several seasons. The big question: Can he throw it in the vicinity of star WR Larry Fitzgerald and make enough plays to keep Arizona competitive on the road?
The likely answer is no, but he gives the Cardinals a better chance than Lindley or Skelton does.
It's going to be a nightmare for Arizona to stop the physical rushing attack of San Francisco if Hoyer can't make plays. The added dimension of dynamic QB Colin Kaepernick won't help the Cardinal cause either.
But if Hoyer steps up and surprises by distributing the ball well enough to the plethora of talented skills players around him, the Cardinals just may have a chance.
There is going to be immense pressure on Kaepernick and the Niners to bounce back from an embarrassing loss in Seattle in Week 16. If they don't win this one, they will be in danger of losing the NFC West title to the Seahawks.
I like San Francisco to pull this out, but it will be closer than expected.
Final Score: 49ers 20, Cardinals 16

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