Patrick Predicts (F1 2009)

The 2009 season will (hopefully) be my first full season of reporting for Bleacher.  I love Brawn GP and have in the past focused my articles on reviews and predictions surrounding the team I support.  Of course I hope to do much the same this year, however, I thought it might be quite fun to think about predictions across the grid.  Please bear in mind that my team is very much Brawn GP; whilst I support Fernando Alonso as well, my F1 knowledge is primarily Honda/Brawn.  I will of course welcome criticism, but as I say I am no expert in the whole grid (I’m not even a Brawn expert….more a fanatic!) so please not too harsh!

Ok, so I’ll start with McLaren.

1 Lewis Hamilton (GB)

2 Heikki Kovalainen (FIN)

Looking at 2006, you might well have come to the conclusion that McLaren was about to go the same way as Williams and slip into past glory legend status.  No wins in 2006 and Kimi off to Ferrari.  However, there was light at the end of the tunnel. The World Champion Fernando Alonso would be taking Kimi’s place and a young promising Brit. would fill the number two spot.

Let us ignore the whole Ferrari/Fernando saga and simply look at the results.  Both Nando and Lewis had extremely strong seasons and were only beaten on the last day.  I would strongly argue, (though I am a Fernando fan), that 2007 should have been Alonso’s year.  Then came 2008, and McLaren have their first World Champion since Mika Häkkinen in 1999.  So, on the face of it, going on the last couple of seasons, McLaren would seem to be in a strong position.

However, the last few tests have been very strange, leading to much speculation.  Eventually we all got the shock answer we had been looking for….. “McLaren are not fast enough”.  Apparently the team does know what the problem is and can therefore fix it in time for race one; but are McLaren on the back foot?

I believe that McLaren focused most of its resources on winning the 2008 season, and whilst it achieved that goal, it may well have cost their 2009 campaign.  I have no doubt that the excellent staff at McLaren will work their socks off to improve their car throughout the season.  The more important question is whether they can do so before their rivals get too far ahead.

I predict that McLaren will not win either title this year, but will finish amongst the top three teams.

Now to Ferrari, last years constructors’ champions and to my mind the only team that has been consistently strong since the beginning of the 21st Century.

3 Kimi Raikkonen (FIN)

4 Felipe Massa (BR)

There is certainly nothing wrong with the drivers’ individual talents.  Kimi is a proven world champ. and Felipe opened a lot of people’s eyes last year.  The problem at Ferrari will be the question of who is the number one driver? If Kimi drives like he did last year, he doesn’t deserve the title but I fear he’ll get it anyway.  Poor old Felipe I think still has a lot to prove and is perhaps only warming the seat for Fernando to take over very soon.

On to the car now.  Ferrari’s testing has been pretty good.  The only conclusion I can really come to is that the F60 looks to be encouraging.  It isn’t setting the world on fire, but neither is it struggling like the McLaren.

The only scary challenges so far for the Italian team have been the pace of Brawn GP and the ever- looming reliability threat.

I predict that a Ferrari driver will be World Champion and the team will probably win the Constructors’ again.

BMW Sauber, I like to think, are a lot like Honda.  A steady build up to an encouraging season (for Honda 2006 and that first win, for BMW last year).  However, much like Honda, I can also see BMW slipping back down again pretty sharpish!

5 Robert Kubica (PL)

6 Nick Heidfeld (D)

Regardless of my concerns, the new car looks reliable and fast and the team seems to believe it can challenge for the World Championship.

Last year was good and bad for Sauber; a promising start, a driver leading the World Championship and then a slump at the end of term.  I think this slump was probably due to scrapping 2008 in favour of 2009.  This, I believe would have been a good idea and could only be beneficial for this year’s championship.

This team may well surprise me but I can’t see it seriously challenging for the winner’s step.

I predict both the drivers and team will be strongly in the top five, but not as fast as the likes of Ferrari.

As Renault are my  second team, I was pretty depressed throughout 2007 and most of 2008; (bear in mind my first team is Honda!).  However, 2008 picked up for the French side and Fernando managed two strong wins in Asia.  So is it back to championship form for 2009?

7 Fernando Alonso (E)

8 Nelson Piquet (BR)

Unfortunately, a lot of people have seen the R29s performance as only decent with Nando at the wheel.

Apparently Piquet’s pace is a more reliable reflection.  I would argue though, that if the Spaniard can make the car impressive, surely this is more a reflection on Nelson than on the Renault?

Looking at the tests, Renault were the only team to topple the excellent form of Brawn GP, and like BMW, Renault say they are ready to go with KERS, which could be crucial in the opening rounds as other teams play catch-up.

Much as I would like to see Fernando a world champ again, I don’t see 2009 being his year.  I think Alonso will shine, Piquet will flounder and the team will be a strong contender for best of the mid-field.

Toyota seem pretty confident that a win is on the way in 2009 and I believe both drivers have the potential to provide it.  However, much like Renault, I can’t see the team breaking free of the mid field.

9 Jarno Trulli (I)

10 Timo Glock (D)

The Japanese team has had very positive tests and forgetting that ‘amazing’ film release, the car looks very encouraging. 

This is a critical year for Toyota; after Honda’s withdrawal I suspect Toyota’s days in F1 are numbered. The primary sponsor Panasonic were crucial for 2009 support, but aren’t they pulling out in 2010?

I think Toyota must race their socks off, and the economic climate must warm up before the team can confidently predict future glory.

I predict….not a lot from Toyota in 2009.  They may well get a race win but I think the real fight will be with the likes of Renault and, dare I say it Brawn GP.

Toro Rosso. Nothing to prove, nothing to lose.  I think the team will suffer without Vettel and will probably slip back down the grid for 2009.

11 Sebastien Bourdais (F)

12 Sebastien Buemi (CH)

I think 2009 will be a learning season for Buemi and a struggle for Bourdais.  A lot of the success last year was in no small part down to Vettel and I think the German’s exit will hit the team hard.

I predict that Toro Rosso’s fight will be with Force India

Red Bull Racing; another difficult one.  Always promising, never quite good enough and of course they have the most unlucky driver ever in poor old Mark Webber.

14 Mark Webber (AUS)

15 Sebastian Vettel (D)

I think both drivers are fantastic. Webber’s luck aside he is a mature fast racer and I think the team has two of the nicest blokes on the grid.

Quelle Surprise, The new car looks nice, but hasn’t sparkled too much in testing, and reliability issues may be a problem.  The team seems quietly confident but they have their work cut out for them.

I predict some strong performances from both drivers, maybe a shock pole position in qualifying, but again this car is one for the mid field battle.

Williams have struggled since their mid 90s glory and I’m not sure if this year will prove too exciting for the German genius, Rosberg.

16 Nico Rosberg (D)

17 Kazuki Nakajima (J)

2009 does offer the team  their best hope yet, with the widespread changes. Rosberg has been fast in testing and the car looks pretty nippy.  Whilst I question Nakajima’s skill, I think Nico is a wasted talent at Williams and despite his admirable loyalty I think it would be best for his career if he begins to look else where.

The car looks good but I think it will be the middle of the middle again.

Force India, I’m afraid the team that props up the rest from the back.

18 Adrian Sutil (D)

19 Giancarlo Fisichella (I)

Mercedes-Benz power may hold the key for the new VJM02 designed by Mark Smith and James Key. The drivers seem happy with the car but I can’t see it in Q3 much.

Unfortunately I can see the Force Indias as pretty regular back markers in 2009.

Finally! Brawn GP, to my mind the best team on the grid!  Of course it is very hard for me to write fairly about this team but I will try.

20 Jenson Button (GB)

21 Rubens Barrichello (BR)

Crap 2007 and 2008 seasons left me constantly looking forward to 2009.  Then just before Christmas, bang! Honda quit and I thought my days as an F1 fanatic where over.  However, the Brawn BGP001 literally exploded on to the tracks and left me feeling as if I was dreaming.

The clear decision to scrap the RA108 looks to have really been a good one and the team has long been confident in the development of their 2009 car.  Now, I don’t expect too much early on; the car was fast in testing but there is still a long way to go and reliability issues may be problematic. 

I think Jenson will truly give everything he has got and, (unfortunately), I think Rubens will yet again be driving for his career, (and we all know what that did to his 2008 season!).

I would love to say now that Jens will be world champion and Rubens runner up.  However, in reality, unless the team completely loses its head, I can see Brawn GP creeping up the grid and putting in regular points paying positions.  I predict 2009 will bring Brawn GP at least a podium finish, maybe a win and hopefully the monopoly of the mid-field.