How To Pick An NCAA Upset, And Seven Likely 2009 Tournament Upsets

Every year when the brackets come out for the NCAA Tournament, it’s never a question of if an upset will occur. The question is which upsets will they be?

This year's brackets don't seem to have a lot of difference between teams seeded fourth through 13th. After the first couple lines of each region, the disparity of the teams are not very big. A lot of experts aren’t calling for many upsets, but I disagree. I’m picking more than I ever have.

I look for a couple of different things when picking a first round upset:

1. I first look for any seeds 1-6 who are seeded higher than they should be. I also look at seeds 11-16 to see if any are seeded too low.

2. I look for any teams seeded 1-6 who are on cold streaks or are limping into the tournament. These could be prime candidates to get upset.

3. Is there any team seeded 1-6 who is inexperienced, or focus their offense all on one main guy? If they are playing a team who is full of seniors, a coach or team who has been to the tournament before, or a team who has played good competition throughout the year (played close or even won these games), this could be a strong indicator.

Based on that, here are my first round upsets (I classify an upset as 6 vs. 11 games and above).

Western Kentucky over Illinois: Classic 12 vs. 5 matchup. WKU has been here before and beat Louisville earlier in the year. Illinois might miss Chester Frazier. Although, I do question myself here because of the Illini defense.

VCU over UCLA: VCU has been in this situation, but UCLA has experience too. Coming into the tournament, I thought UCLA was an 8 or 9 seed. There are so many reasons why I like VCU at least one round, and here they are.

North Dakota State over Kansas: I’m crazy, right? A team full of fifth-year seniors, who all red-shirted so they could be part of the NCAA Tournament, is playing a team that is inexperienced, young, and struggling coming into the tournament.

I know it’s the defending champs, but check this out: ND State has eight players from the state of Minnesota. And where is the first round game being played? Minneapolis. You don’t think they will be fired up to pull an upset? They’ve got solid players...and, oh yeah, they can flat-out score too.

Temple over Arizona State: Temple is a team that beat Xavier, Tennessee, and Penn State this season. Dionte Christmas is one of the best scorers in the tournament. Temple has to win at least one game this year, and quite frankly, I don’t think Arizona State is that good.

Cleveland State over Wake Forest: I’ve heard experts take WF all the way to the Final Four. It’s very possible. However, this one just makes sense. Either way it goes, it should be a good one: Cleveland State has a defense in the Top 10 in the tournament and Wake has an explosive offense. They both have solid athletes.

But I see an upset because of the youth of Wake, and Cleveland State has tested themselves this year. They beat Syracuse on the road and beat Butler (also losing twice by last-second shots). Plus, I called them to be a Cinderella at the beginning of the season. I can’t not pick them now, can I?

Arizona over Utah: Not sure I’d call this an upset based on talent, but seed-wise it is. I’m really wary to pick this, though. Utah is very physical and plays really good defense. However, Utah is not a 5 seed in my eyes. They haven’t done enough to warrant it. If I had to pick one game, I would pick the talent of Arizona to beat the discipline of Utah.

Portland State over Xavier: Another one of those seeds that is way too high. I’ve seen Xavier in person on the road when they lost to Dayton and they looked like they couldn’t get anything going offensively.

I thought it could have been a fluke, and then I watched the Temple game in the A-10 tournament, and they looked miserable. They aren’t a 4-seed. Going to Boise to play an experienced and tested Portland State team (that won at Gonzaga, by the way) will be tough.

I know, it’s a lot of upsets. Most might not happen, but I’m taking a lot of chances and I’m not sorry about that. If I didn’t mention a team that’s seeded 1-6 above, then that means I have them winning Thursday or Friday. My picks for team seeded 7-10 are below.

8 LSU over 9 Butler

9 Texas A&M over 8 BYU

8 Ohio State over 9 Siena

9 Tennessee over 8 Oklahoma State

10 Maryland over 7 California

7 Boston College over 10 USC

7 Clemson over 10 Michigan

7 Texas over 10 Minnesota