NCAA Tournament Bubble: What Fringe Teams Must Do To Make the Dance

One week before Selection Sunday, and analysts all around the country are giving their opinion about who is in and who is not.

For the most part, a lot of the teams on the bubble still have work to do and time to prove themselves, since the margin between about 20 teams is so little. This is what I think each team on the bubble needs to do to get in:

Siena: Make the MAAC Final, and hope Niagara does also

With a lot of other bubble teams falling apart, Siena should be in if they lose to Niagara in the finals. If they lose to Rider, Siena will probably be sweating just a bit more.

San Diego St.: Beat UNLV in the Mountain West quarterfinal

That won't be an easy task considering the tournament is in Vegas. With San Diego St beating UNLV yesterday, and another win in the conference quarters, I think they get in no matter what happens in the semis.

New Mexico: Win one game in the Mountain West tournament

I think the Mountain West gets four teams. In a strong conference with a 12-4 conference record, I think they jump over a lot of other teams with mediocre records in stronger conferences.

Oklahoma State: Win one game in the Big 12 tournament, and play a competitive game against Oklahoma

The committee is going to be looking for reasons to eliminate teams (like Creighton getting blown out in the MVC semis), and Oklahoma State needs to at least show they can play as well as they did on Saturday against Oklahoma.

Providence: Win their first round Big East game, and play a competitive game against Louisville

Two very good home wins, and that's about it. Just because Providence was 10-8 in the Big East doesn't mean that the record states who they beat. Rhode Island falling out of at-large consideration hurts Providence the most.

Arizona: Beat Arizona State in the quarterfinals

If they lose three times to Arizona State, they aren't getting in. Too many losses late in the season and zero good road wins. They can beat very good teams, but the last time I checked the first two rounds are not in Arizona.

St. Mary's: Beat Portland

With Patty Mills back, they just need to prove that he is back and playing well, and they're in. They were 18-1 with him, he's a difference maker for a very good team.

Penn St., Ohio St., Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan: Don't lose the first game

If Northwestern, Iowa or Indiana win a game in the Big 10 tournament, that will mean one of the five teams on the bubble are out. Ohio St and Minnesota are probably in the worst shape, although Penn St losing to Iowa didn't help.

The Big 10 doesn't deserve eight teams, they might not even deserve seven, but probably will get seven, and provide for some great betting opportunities in the tournament. A 9-9 record in the Big 10 is not an achievement if most of the teams did it.

South Carolina, Tennessee, Auburn, Florida: Tennessee needs to win at least one game, Florida two; South Carolina and Auburn likely need to make the finals

I actually heard Hubert Davis say that Auburn has to be in because they went 10-6 in the SEC. The SEC stinks! Tennessee amazingly played themselves back onto the bubble with a home loss against Alabama. Florida, Auburn and South Carolina have almost no good wins on their resumes.

Western Kentucky has better wins. South Carolina's wins compare to Niagara and Davidson. I know the committee doesn't choose by conference. I just can't see more than three teams deserving of a bid in this league. LSU and Tennessee would also potentially meet in the semis.

Miami: Make the Finals of the ACC tournament and lose on a buzzer beater to North Carolina

Seriously, I keep hearing people talk about Miami as an at-large team. They went 7-9 in the conference. They are 5-8 in their last 13 games. They're best non-conference win was at Kentucky. Enjoy the NIT Miami. This just goes to show that so-called basketball experts have a big conference, mostly east coast bias. Siena would be in the NIT in their minds. Just stupid.

Virginia Tech: Win the automatic bid

Virginia Tech has some really good wins, but they are 3-7 in their last 10 (most likely 3-8 in their last 11 by the time you read this), and will probably be 7-9 in the ACC. I think the committee is better than to reward mediocrity.

Kentucky, Niagara, Utah State, Davidson, Western Kentucky, VCU, Mississippi St., Cincinnati, Kansas St., UNLV, Rhode Island, Temple, and Maryland might have a case, but probably will not be considered so they should win their tournament.