Updated Playoff Odds for Every NFL Team After Week 4

At this point we are starting to get a better feel of where certain teams around the NFL stand and which teams are true contenders. Despite what has to be considered parity, some teams just don't have a chance to make the second season. 

Meanwhile, a handful of teams appear to be in great positions as I publish this article. 

Let's take a gander at where each NFL team stands through four weeks in terms of playoff odds. 

The methodology is simple. I am going to assign each team a percentage in terms of their chances to make the postseason. As you will see, the numbers align perfectly with six teams making the second season from each conference.

Keep in mind that there is a historical precedent for some of the percentages. Example, a 4-0 team earning a postseason spot is nearly assured if history tells us anything. 

San Diego Chargers

Playoff Chances: 70 Percent 

Record: 3-1

What a mighty impressive win for the San Diego Chargers on Sunday. They absolutely dominated the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead. The game was never in doubt as San Diego compiled a 17-0 first quarter lead. 

That is three solid performances in four games. With that, San Diego now has a one-game lead in the AFC West through four games. 

San Diego will now take on the New Orleans Saints before hosting the Denver Broncos next Monday night in a game that will go a long way in determining the outcome of the division. If San Diego pulls off a win there, it will be the clear-cut favorite in the AFC West. 

It really is that simple. 

Denver Broncos

Playoff Chances: 40 Percent

Record: 2-2

The Oakland Raiders defense seemed to be the perfect tonic for Peyton Manning and company on Sunday. The Denver Broncos destroyed Oakland 37-6 in one of the most lopsided games of the season so far. 

Denver scored on all but two of its drives and didn't punt once in a statement win Sunday. 

Manning looked like his 2010 self, throwing for 338 yards and three touchdowns against an inept Oakland secondary. 

The road promises to get more difficult moving forward as Denver goes up against the New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers in its next two games prior to a Week 7 bye. 

Kansas City Chiefs

Playoff Chances: 15 Percent 

Record: 1-3

The Kansas City Chiefs appear to be a complete and utter mess right now. They have now given up 77 points in two home games and at least 24 points in all four games thus far in 2012. 

More importantly, Kansas City has now turned the ball over a whopping 15 times in four games. Matt Cassel has not progressed from the average quarterback we saw last season. In short, any chance that the Chiefs have for a postseason run seems to be coming unhinged at the quarter point of the season. 

I just don't see this team contending in what appears to be an improved AFC West. 

Oakland Raiders

Playoff Chances: 10 Percent 

Record: 1-3 

Any hope that the Oakland Raiders would continue their winning ways after a surprising victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers was ended relatively quickly in Denver on Sunday. 

Oakland doesn't appear to have an identity on offense and is a disaster waiting to happen defensively. Hell, they didn't even force Denver to punt a single time Sunday afternoon. 

It is becoming evident that Oakland and the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be challenging one another for the AFC West cellar.

Baltimore Ravens

Playoff Chances: 85 Percent

Record: 3-1

The Baltimore Ravens are winning in a much different manner than we have seen in previous seasons. They are doing it with a dynamic offense and improved passing game instead of a stifling defense. 

It seems that John Harbaugh and company have gotten the memo about the transition to a more pass-happy league. That being said, their offense must start to feature Ray Rice more if they are going to have a shot at winning the AFC Championship. You simply cannot go away from your strengths too much. 

Defensively, it has been somewhat of a struggle. Baltimore has allowed three consecutive 300-yard passing games as its secondary continues to struggle a great deal. The loss of Terrell Suggs to an Achilles injury seems to be hurting a lot. 

Either way, Baltimore will be there when it counts in January. 

Cincinnati Bengals

Playoff Chances: 70 Percent

Record: 3-1

The Cincinnati Bengals continue to prove they are serious contenders in the ultra-competitive AFC North. They have won three of their first four games. 

Cincinnati's offense continues to thrive with Andy Dalton at the helm. He threw for 244 yards and two more touchdowns in the Bengals' 27-10 dismantling of the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Dalton has now thrown for over 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns while compiling a quarterback rating in the triple digits one quarter of the way through the season. 

Their success late in the season and in the playoffs is going to depend on improved play of the secondary. Obviously, having all hands on deck will be an important factor moving forward. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Playoff Chances: 35 Percent 

Record: 1-2

While on a bye, the Pittsburgh Steelers dropped some ground to both the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens. This comes on the heels of a disastrous loss to the Oakland Raiders on the road last week. 

My preseason prediction of Pittsburgh missing the playoffs in 2012 is looking darn solid right now. This team has some major issues regarding pass protection. Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked nine times in three games. Any chance that Pittsburgh has of making the second season will depend on improved protection upfront. 

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has a grueling schedule with four games remaining against the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens. That being said, we are way too early in the season to count a team like Pittsburgh, one with a stellar defense, out of postseason contention. 

Cleveland Browns

Playoff Chances: Five Percent 

Record: 0-4

I cannot help but be surprised by the performance of Brandon Weeden over the course of the last three weeks. He has now thrown for 300 yards in each of his last two games with as many touchdowns (three) as interceptions. Continued progression from the Oklahoma State product is needed as a springboard for future seasons. 

With that in mind, the Cleveland Browns are, once again, looking to the future. At 0-4 they have nearly no chance of making the postseason and have to start taking looks at youngsters in an attempt to gauge where their core stands moving forward. 

This doesn't bode well for Pat Shurmur, who could see his short stint in Cleveland come to an end at some point in the not-so-distant future. A 4-16 record isn't going to cut it. 

Houston Texans

Playoff Chances: 95 Percent

Record: 4-0

One of the best defenses in the National Football League to go along with a dynamic offense, the Houston Texans are for real, people. Their smackdown of the Tennessee Titans yesterday is a perfect example of this. 

Their defense got to Tennessee quarterbacks a total of four times and knocked Jake Locker out of the game. More importantly, they forced three more turnovers and took full advantage of those mistakes in the process. J.J. Watt is quickly becoming one of the best pure defensive ends in the entire league. The second-year standout from Wisconsin accumulated two more sacks and now has an AFC-leading 7.5 through four weeks. 

Offensively, it was a bit more of a struggle than what we saw in the initial three games. Houston recorded just 16 first downs and under 300 yards against a defense that had been destroyed all season long up until Sunday. I guess every offense is entitled to a down game. 

At this point, Houston now possesses a 2.5 game lead over their closest competitor in the AFC South, the Indianapolis Colts. Get the bubbly ready; this division should be wrapped up in November. 

Indianapolis Colts

Playoff Chances: 15 Percent

Record: 1-2

The Indianapolis Colts were on a bye this week, but are now in second place in the AFC South after both the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars laid complete eggs on Sunday. 

By no means does this indicate that Indianapolis is anywhere near ready to compete against the Houston Texans in the division. As I mentioned last week, they are in the earliest stages of a rebuilding process. 

Success is going to be defined by the continued progression of Andrew Luck at quarterback and his young playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. 

Still, it is really nice to see this team much more competitive than last season. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Playoff Chances: 10 Percent 

Record: 1-3

What an uninspiring performance by the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Their offense struggled a great deal against what has to be considered a weak Cincinnati Bengals defense. Blaine Gabbert took a step back after looking like an improved quarterback during the first three games of his sophomore campaign. 

More disturbing than Gabbert's performance is the fact that Maurice Jones-Drew wasn't able to build off a spectacular performance against the Indianapolis Colts a week prior. He recorded just 38 rushing yards on 13 attempts. 

Jacksonville might be an improved football team, but it is nowhere near contention this season. It is going to take improvements across the board for this team to even sniff a .500 record. 

Tennessee Titans

Playoff Chances: 10 Percent

Record: 1-3

Another questionable performance across the board for the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Outside of a stunning overtime victory against a disappointing Detroit Lions team last week, Tennessee just has not been competitive this season. 

The Titans' three losses have come by a combined 73 points, indicating that Tennessee has a whole lot of work to do before anyone can even mention it as a possible playoff team. 

Adding insult to injury, Jake Locker separated his non-throwing shoulder once again and wasn't able to finish the game. 

Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean had the following to say about the injury. 

"

QB Jake Locker separated his left shoulder again on Sunday -- it popped out on sack. This time, however, Titans fear injury worse.

"

He should miss some time. 

Tennessee needs to get it straightened out in short order; otherwise, it will be looking at playing meaningless late-season games in 2012. 

"

"

New England Patriots

Playoff Chances: 75 Percent 

Record: 2-2

Great teams find a way to get through the difficult times. This is what the New England Patriots were able to do on Sunday. They were down by 14 points in the first half against the Buffalo Bills, facing the possibility of falling two games behind in the AFC East. 

What did the Pats do in the second half to answer? They scored a whopping 45 points, the most in a single half in the NFL in 40 years. In the process, New England dismantled the Buffalo Bills by a final score of 52-28. 

Needless to say, Tom Brady and company have righted the ship. More impressive is the fact that the Patriots racked up a whopping 247 yards on the ground.

If their offense shows that type of balance moving forward, it really doesn't matter how good the Pats' defense is. They are going to win the AFC. Now it is all about repeating that performance against better opponents. 

New York Jets

Playoff Chances: 25 Percent 

Record: 2-2 

Ouch, that was a disastrous performance by the New York Jets all the way around. While they were able to stay in the game against a vastly superior San Francisco 49ers team for a half, New York was blown away. 

By the time the final whistle was blown, an empty Meadowlands seemed to be in utter shock by the Jets' glaringly horrible performance. They recorded a total of nine first downs and 145 yards while turning the ball over four times in a 34-0 defeat. 

At some point in the not-so-distant future, the Jets have a decision to make at quarterback. Their Mark Sanchez-led offense just isn't getting it done at this point and a move toward Tim Tebow may become imminent soon. 

Either way, New York is a complete and utter mess right now. It doesn't help that it is without its best overall player in Darrelle Revis and lost its best offensive player, Santonio Holmes, to what appears to be a serious leg injury.

Rex Ryan and Sanchez could quickly be placed on the hot seat if things continue on this path. 

Buffalo Bills

Playoff Chances: 25 Percent

Record: 2-2 

Ryan Fitzpatrick appears to be back at it. The enigmatic starting quarterback of the Buffalo Bills threw another four interceptions on Sunday and now has a league-high seven picks through four games. 

Meanwhile, Buffalo's defense was a complete and utter mess on Sunday, bringing back memories of 2011. It yielded 33 first downs and 580 yards to New England, including a whopping 367 yards and 45 points in the second half. At a certain point during the game, it appeared that the Patriots were playing some sort of seven-on-seven drill against Buffalo. This is how bad it was.

Things are not going to get easier moving forward, either. Buffalo has to travel to California to take on a San Francisco 49ers team that shut out the New York Jets 34-0 yesterday. They then travel to the desert to take on the 4-0 Arizona Cardinals the following week.

It is becoming readily apparent that my preseason pick of Buffalo making the playoffs may go up in flames relatively soon, if it hasn't already.

Miami Dolphins

Playoff Chances: 15 Percent

Record: 1-3

What can I say about Ryan Tannehill? The Texas A&M product literally lit up one of the best defenses in the National Football League when he put up 431 yards against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. 

It was all for naught. 

The Miami Dolphins lost their second consecutive game in overtime and now sit in the cellar of the AFC East through the first quarter of the season. 

Still, this is a team that is much more competitive than most people thought it would be heading into the season. 

With games against the Cincinnati Bengals and St. Louis Rams before their bye week, the Dolphins could be looking at a 1-5 record heading into late October. That would end any hope of a surprising postseason run. 

Arizona Cardinals

Playoff Chances: 60 Percent 

Record: 4-0 

This Buffalo Springfield song keeps popping into my head every time I see a win on the Arizona Cardinals side of the ledger. Yes, "something is happening here." Is this team overachieving? Yes. Are they getting lucky more often than not? Definitely. Are they a good football team? Obviously. 

Arizona has now won 11 of its last 13 games, outscoring opponents by just over three points per game during that span. It is a hard-nosed football team that comes up big when it counts the most. 

Still, there are many that will still question whether the Cardinals are for real. After all, they have had the bounces go their way a great deal during this amazing stretch. I really want to see how this team handles adversity moving forward. 

With all that said, Arizona is still only one of three undefeated teams remaining in the National Football League and is one game ahead of the San Francisco 49ers in the suddenly improved NFC West.

A four-game stretch that includes the Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons starting in late October will go a long way in determining whether Arizona is for real. 

San Francisco 49ers

Playoff Chances: 75 Percent 

Record: 3-1 

Earlier reports of the San Francisco 49ers' demise ended up being grossly overestimated as shown by their 34-0 beatdown of the New York Jets on Sunday. Their defense dominated in every possible way as Mark Sanchez and company looked like nothing more than a JV offense. 

San Francisco also dominated the trenches in this game. It put up 245 yards on the ground with nine different players running the ball. 

The 49ers still do have some issues to get fixed before they can be considered favorites to win the NFC moving forward. Among these issues is what is quickly becoming a weak passing offense. Alex Smith just hasn't been able to connect on the deep passes, which could really put their offense in a box moving forward. A lot of that has to do with his inaccuracy on intermediate and deep throws, but his receivers aren't him any favors either. 

Still, San Francisco remains one of the best teams in the NFL through four weeks. 

St. Louis Rams

Playoff Chances: 15 Percent 

Record: 2-2

Jeff Fisher has done one damn good job with this St. Louis Rams team. Following a solid win against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, St. Louis has now matched its total win output from last season. 

Most of its success through the first quarter of the season is due to improved play on the defensive side of the ball. Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkings make up what has to be considered one of the better cornerback tandems in the entire league. Additionally, Chris Long and Robert Quinn represent a scary pass-rush duo. 

That being said, St. Louis just doesn't seem to be at the point of being able to contend with the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West. It still has a ton of holes on the offensive side of the ball. 

The Rams might not be a legit postseason contender, but they sure are ahead of the curve in their rebuilding process. Give this team another year and watch out. 

Seattle Seahawks

Playoff Chances: 20 Percent 

Record: 2-2

For the Seattle Seahawks to be considered a true contender in the NFC West, they actually need to play some decent football on the road. Pete Carroll and company have lost 10 of their last 13 away from home since 2010.  

More importantly, Seattle's offense seems to have taken a step backward as of late. Russell Wilson showed exactly how hard it is to win with a rookie quarterback by throwing three costly interceptions against the St. Louis Rams on Sunday. His receivers have been inconsistent at best as Seattle continues to rely on the run game. 

The one thing that will keep Seattle in the playoff picture is one of the most dominating defenses in the entire league. It has now given up fewer than 300 total yards in all four games this season. If Seattle's offense can show anything, this will be a dangerous team. Until then, the Seahawks are just going to be mediocre. 

Green Bay Packers

Playoff Chances 65 Percent 

Record: 2-2 

The Green Bay Packers still aren't right. They had to muster a late-game touchdown against the inept New Orleans Saints to come away with a win at home on Sunday. 

Green Bay's defense seemed to be up to its old tricks, allowing nearly 500 yards of offense against Drew Brees and company. 

Meanwhile, it does appear that its offense has righted the ship. Aaron Rodgers had his best game of the season, and Green Bay was able to muster more than 100 yards on the ground. 

Still, the Packers are nowhere near the team that we saw jump opponents on a consistent basis last season. 

I still consider the Packers to be one of the best teams in the NFC. They will get it going at some point in 2012, which ought to scare opposing defenses. 

Minnesota Vikings

Playoff Chances: 35 Percent

Record: 3-1

The Minnesota Vikings have now matched their entire 2011 win total through just the first four games of the season after defeating the Detroit Lions Sunday. The improvement we have seen from this team in 2012 is simply mind-boggling. 

Christian Ponder continues to play exceptional ball and has now thrown 123 passes this season without an interception. Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson appears to be back at full strength. This type of balance on the offensive side of the ball coupled with a solid defense has many thinking playoffs in Minnesota. 

While a 3-1 record indicates that Minnesota has a solid shot of earning a postseason berth, we have to see more from this team before drawing any conclusions. 

Minnesota finishes up the regular season with a tough latter half of the schedule. It will have to take on the Chicago Bears (twice), Green Bay Packers (twice) and Houston Texans in a six-game span to end the regular year. 

Chicago Bears

Playoff Chances: 55 Percent

Record: 3-1

The Chicago Bears have now been extremely impressive in three of their first four games thus far this season. They manhandled a talented Dallas cowboys team on the road last night, forcing five Tony Romo interceptions and running away with the game towards the end. 

While Chicago was extremely impressive on defense, Jay Cutler and company looked a lot better in the passing game than we had seen in the last two games. The enigmatic quarterback didn't throw an interception and found Brandon Marshall on the outside multiple time. 

If that connection can continue to progress moving forward, Chicago's offense will be in great shape. It just isn't going to get much easier in what promises to be one of the most competitive divisions in the entire NFL. 

Detroit Lions

Playoff Chances: 20 Percent 

Record: 1-3

Ouch, that was a deflating loss for the Detroit Lions on Sunday. They have now lost three consecutive games for the first time since November of 2010 and are 6-10 in their last 16 games. Not exactly what we expected for a team that came into 2012 with incredibly high expectations. 

Matthew Stafford continued his struggles against the Minnesota Vikings yesterday. He failed to throw a touchdown and put up a pedestrian 77.2 quarterback rating. He has now accumulated just three touchdowns compared to four interceptions this season. 

Meanwhile, Detroit's run defense was shredded apart by Minnesota, which racked up 127 yards on 28 attempts. 

Teams that start the season losing three of their first four games rarely make the postseason. This is only magnified for Detroit, which has an upward climb against the Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears and aforementioned Vikings. 

Atlanta Falcons

Playoff Chances: 95 Percent

Record: 4-0 

Have the Atlanta Falcons clinched the NFC South yet? They have two more wins than the rest of the division combined through four weeks. This kinda reminds me of the 2011 San Francisco 49ers, who ran away with the NFC West before Thanksgiving last season. 

It could get tricky if Atlanta eases up on the pedal with such a big cushion in the division. 

That being said, Atlanta is currently clicking in every possible way. After facing their first real test of the season Sunday against the Carolina Panthers, Matt Ryan and company now know that every game won't be as easy as the first three. 

If you want to talk about early season MVP candidates, no need to look any further than the aforementioned Ryan. He is on pace to throw for over 4,600 yards and 44 touchdowns this season. If Atlanta continues to click offensively, it will be looking at home-field advantage throughout the postseason. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Playoff Chances: 10 Percent 

Record: 1-3

Josh Freeman and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue to struggle when it counts the most. They have lost three games by a combined 15 points, losing all three by seven points or fewer.

If you want to contend for a postseason spot in the NFC, you need to show up when it counts the most. Thus far, Tampa Bay just hasn't been able to do that. 

Freeman continues his regression after a breakout 2010 campaign. He has thrown five touchdows and four interceptions through the first quarter of the season, pedestrian numbers of a marginal starting quarterback in the NFL. 

Carolina Panthers

Playoff Chances: 10 Percent

Record: 1-3

That was a deflating loss against the division-leading Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. The Carolina Panthers had a late-game lead and let it slip through their hands as Cam Newton wasn't able to kill the clock during their final drive. 

Instead, they gave the ball back to Matt Ryan and company. The rest is history. 

The good news here is that Newton seemed to rebound a great deal after a disastrous performance against the New York Giants a week prior. 

While Carolina still has time to get back into the postseason race, its loss to Atlanta yesterday pretty much ended any hopes of a surprising run in the division. 

I still think the Panthers are a year or two away from real contention. 

New Orleans Saints

Playoff Chances: Five Percent 

Record: 0-4

The New Orleans Saints played a damn good game against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, but weren't able to come away with their first victory of the season. 

Instead, New Orleans remains one of only two teams, joining the Cleveland Browns, without a win. Needless to say, their hopes for a postseason bid pretty much crumbled on the last day of September. 

Despite a disastrous offseason, I doubt anyone perceived New Orleans falling this far this quickly. 

The Titanic has sunk, and Leo isn't here to save Kate this time. 

Philadelphia Eagles

Playoff Chances: 50 Percent 

Record: 3-1

The Philadelphia Eagles played their most complete game of the season against the New York Giants last night. After turning the ball over a whopping 12 times in their first three games, Philadelphia didn't turn it over once in an impressive 19-17 win. 

Depending on tonight's outcome between the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears, we could be looking at Philadelphia holding sole possession of first place in the NFC East after four weeks. 

That being said, the Eagles are playing much closer to the ledge than I am sure most fans are comfortable with. Their three wins have come by a combined four points. This seems to indicate that Philadelphia's margin for error just isn't too great. 

Dallas Cowboys

Playoff Chances: 30 Percent

Record: 2-2

The Dallas Cowboys fell flat on their faces last night in a nationally televised loss to the Chicago Bears. While Tony Romo did struggle a great deal, he wasn't helped out by disastrous play from receivers.  

That is the third consecutive games that the Cowboys have struggled on the offensive side of the ball, mostly in the passing game.  

Tony Romo has thrown just two touchdowns compared to seven interceptions over the course of the last three games.

Defensively, it is a completely different story. Dallas is surrendering just 187 passing yards per game this season as Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne have proved to be major upgrades at cornerback. If Dallas continues this type of play on defense, they will should be in the thick of things come December. 

It is now up to the Dallas offense to right the ship. 

New York Giants

Playoff Chances: 40 Percent

Record: 2-2

While the score was close, it was readily apparent that the Philadelphia Eagles outplayed the New York Giants in nearly every category Sunday night. This is alarming considering how New York played the week prior in a rout of the Carolina Panthers. 

Inconsistency has long been an issue for the defending Super Bowl Champions during the regular season. 2012 appears to be no different. 

The one major difference here is that the NFC East is vastly improved from a year ago. New York is now tied with the Washington Redskins for the cellar in what promises to be a tight division race moving forward. 

Following what should be a win against the Cleveland Browns, The Giants have a tough haul ahead of themselves. They face the San Francisco 49ers, Washington Redskins, Dallas Cowboys, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals and Green Bay Packers consecutively. 

Washington Redskins

Playoff Chances: 15 Percent

Record: 2-2

Every single game the Washington Redskins have played this season has come down to the wire, and Sunday was no different. It took another late-game comeback from Robert Griffin III to lead Washington to a surprising .500 record at the quarter point in the season. 

On that note, who hasn't been impressed by the play of RGIII? He simply makes this team go on a consistent basis, week in and week out. 

While Washington might not be ready for contention quite yet, it has an extremely strong foundation with which to build.