NFL Week 4 Predictions: 5 Best Picks Against the Spread

It's not every day you find yourself competing for $447,000. But when that day comes, the best thing to do is sit at your computer, casually drink some water, and calmly announce...OH MY GOD I'M COMPETING FOR $447,000!!!

That, of course, is the position I presently find myself in. Three weeks into the LVH Supercontest (the rules of which I've outlined here), I've learned that maybe, just maybe, I am capable of betting with the big boys.

Coming off a 4-1 week, I'm now 9-6 on the season (my entry name is Bricajo), placing me square in the thick of the money race. The lone leader, 3POINTDOG, sits an esoteric four games ahead of me, but it's still early. As it stands, I'm in a 52-way tie for 68th place––a feat that may not sound impressive, but, considering the record 745 entrants, actually is. Two-time former champion Fezzik is 4-10-1 and reigning champion Sans Souci is 6-9.

So where do I go from here? As one of the, admittedly, least qualified entrants in the field, it'd be easy to see me regress toward the mean. After all, sports betting really is just one macrocosmic word problem from AP Statistics. But with enough research, instinct and––let's be honest––dumb luck, there's a chance I can hang around in this thing.

Here's a look at my five bests picks this weekend:

*Projected Winners are in Bold*

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-7)

I was sitting, waiting, wishing for this line to drop to -6.5, but I knew that was a pipe dream. Atlanta has probably been the league's most impressive team this year and Carolina is coming off one of the young season's biggest shellackings.

Normally, I'm opposed to picking games where teams have divergent momentums. It usually inflates the spread in one direction, leaving you to choose between a bad value and a bad team. Here, however, I think the value is relatively reasonable.

Atlanta's offense has moved with pinpoint precision since transitioning to a pass-heavy approach. And while it was the run that sliced Carolina apart against the Giants, they're susceptible through the air as well. Having to defend Cam Newton on turf is a daunting proposition, but the support of the Atlanta faithful––fulminating with excitement after last week's crushing performance––should be enough to counteract that.

I'm scared of the backdoor cover/push, but I've got faith in my Falcons. I think they could win this by double digits.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1)

Maybe I'm being bullheaded, but I'm sticking to my preseason guns: The Chiefs aren't as bad as everybody thinks they are.

Their first two games presented tough-to-win scenarios: home against the far-superior Falcons, and on the road at frisky Buffalo. They got over the hump with an overtime win at New Orleans and now return to the hostile confines of Arrowhead Stadium with a ton of momentum.

San Diego, on the other hand, also got pummeled at home by Atlanta, to the tune of 27-3. The Chargers looked far more hapless than Kansas City did in Week 1.

With Jamaal Charles finally starting to look, once again, like Jamaal Charles, and an underrated defense playing at home, I like KC improving to 2-2 on the season.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a weird one. Betting against the Jaguars yielded me my only loss last week (damn you MJD!), but betting for the Bengals yielded me a comfortable win. In truth, I suspect this will be one of the Consensus Picks this weekend, the Bengals only needing a last-second field goal to cover against the 1-2 Jags.

Am I supposed to be scared of playing on the road in Jacksonville, by the way? It's basically like playing on a neutral field. In their lone home contest this season, the Jaguars mustered an impressively bad 117 total yards of offense against the Texans. Cincinnati's defense isn't quite Houston's, but it's good enough to shut down an unbalanced attack.

By the way: A.J. Green is quickly ascending out of the Mike Wallace-Andre Johnson tier of receivers, and into the rarified Calvin Johnson-Larry Fitzgerald tier. Watch out for him in this one.

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

Last week was the first time I didn't bet on the Bucs, a mistake as they barely covered a seven-point spread in Dallas. That, by my count, makes them 3-0 against the spread this season.

That number has to regress at some point. I was banking on it being last week, which makes me reticent to put money on them this week; it's not very often a team wins four straight in Vegas.

But still, have you watched the Redskins' defense this year? Swiss-cheese porous. Josh Freeman and his motley crew of underrated pass catchers should be able to shred through them and put up something in the 28-35 point range.

On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay's defensive line continues to exceed expectations. Gerald McCoy is finally playing like a first-round pick, wreaking havoc in the middle of the field.

My gut tells me Tampa by six. I'm scared of the push but, in reality, that's not such a bad thing, is it?

Chicago Bears (+3.5) at Dallas Cowboys

I usually try to veer away from the Monday Night game––since I have class and can't watch the first half––but this one was too enticing to pass up.

When Vegas declares two teams even, the home team usually gets a line of -3. Like the game I just picked: Vegas thinks Washington and Tampa are even. I disagree, so I picked Tampa anyway.

Here, however, Chicago is getting an extra half-point, which indicates that Vegas thinks Dallas is slightly better. I vehemently disagree.

Chicago's stock has taken an unfair tumble, having played its worst game on national TV against the Packers. But even in that game, the Bears defense looked world class; the Packers needed a fake field goal to score points against them.

I don't know if Chicago will win, heck I don't know if the Bears will even cover. Maybe Dallas gets fired up and plays its best game of the season. But I do know that, on paper, this is what we call a value bet. At +3, I'd have to think about it. At +3.5, it's the easiest bet I made all week.

LAST WEEK: 4-1-0

SEASON TOTAL: 9-6-0

CONTEST LEADER: 13-2-0

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