30 Clubs in 30 Days: Toronto Blue Jays

We continue our tour of 30 clubs in 30 days. After making a pit stop in Baltimore, we move north of the border and take a look at the 2009 Toronto Blue Jays.

Believe it or not, the Jays finished fourth in the AL East last year with a record of 86-76. They competed fairly well, posting a 37-35 mark against their division. They were the only team with sub .500 record in interleague play (8-10). Had they won some of those games, this team could’ve been fighting even harder for a wild-card birth.

The Blue Jays' pitching staff was the best in baseball last year. Led by Roy Halladay (20-11, 2.78 ERA, 206 K’s, 1.05 WHIP) and A.J. Burnett (18-10, 4.07 ERA, 231 K’s), the Blue Jays gave up only 610 runs, the least in the majors.

They also posted the best team ERA in the bigs (3.49), and the league's second best batting average against (.242). B.J. Ryan (2.95 ERA, 32 Saves, 58 K’s in 58 innings) returned back to form to stabilize a bullpen that was dominant last year.

Toronto’s main problem was their inability to score runs.

The Jays had a below average offense, only scoring 714 runs last year. Hitting .264 as a team, The Blue Jays couldn’t score and lost power as well (126 HR’s).

Vernon Wells (.300 AVG, 20 HR, 78 RBI) returned from injury showing his star potential, while Alex Rios (.291 AVG, 91 Runs, 78 RBI, 32 SB) continued his development. The Scott Rolen experiment (.262 AVG, 11 HR, 50 RBI) hasn’t worked out the way the Jays had hoped.

So, what moves have the Jays made, lets take a look:

Key Additions

Kevin Millar, 1B/DH (.234 AVG, 20 HR, 72 RBI with Baltimore)
Matt Clement, SP (Minor League Deal, 13-6 with Boston in 05)

Key Losses

A.J. Burnett, SP (18-10, 4.07 ERA, 231 K’s)
Gregg Zaunn, C (.237 AVG, 6 HR, 30 RBI in 245 AB’s)
John Parrish, RP (4.04 ERA, 1.46 WHIP)

Well, the Blue Jays weren’t active this offseason. There were rumors that they may have been in on players like Orlando Cabrera, but to no avail.

The big loss here is obviously A.J. Burnett. He will be a big hole to fill, and Toronto hopes that someone within the organization can fill the void.

Speaking of pitching, lets look at the projected pitching staff:

Rotation

Roy Halladay (20-11, 2.78 ERA, 206 K’s, 1.05 WHIP)
Jesse Litch (13-9, 3.58 ERA, .261 BAA)
David Purcey (3-6, 5.54 ERA, 58 K’s in MLB/ 8-6, 2.69 ERA, 1.12 WHIP in AAA)
Casey Janssen (DNP 08, 2-3, 2.35 ERA in 72.2 IP in 07)
Scott Richmond (4.00 ERA, 20 K’s in 27 IP in MLB/ 6-11, 4.45 ERA, 1.28 WHIP in AAA, fifth starter)
Matt Clement (Minor League Deal, 13-6 with Boston in 05, possible spot/fifth starter)

Bullpen

B.J. Ryan, CL (2.95 ERA, 32 Saves, 58 K’s in 58 innings)
Jesse Carlson, SU (2.25 ERA, 55 K’s in 60 IP)
Brian Tallet, SU/RP (2.88 ERA, 47 K’s in 56.1 IP)
Brandon League, RP (2.18 ERA, 23 K’s in 33 IP)

Jeremy Accardo, RP (6.57 ERA in 12.1 IP, 2.14 ERA and 30 Saves in 07)
Scott Downs, RP/SU (1.78 ERA, 57 K’s in 70.2 IP)

This staff will not be as good as last year's.

With the loss of Burnett, and Shaun Marcum for the year to Tommy John's surgery, the Jays' staff has taken a hit. It will be interesting to see if the 3-5 starters can be consistent because, if they can, this team has a shot of being a .500 club.

Lets take a look at Toronto’s offense:

Lineup

Marco Scutaro, SS (.267 AVG, 78 Runs, 60 RBI)
Aaron Hill, 2B (.263 AVG, 20 RBI/ .291 AVG, 17 HR, 78 RBI, 87 Runs in 07)
Alex Rios, RF (.291 AVG, 91 Runs, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 32 SB)
Vernon Wells, CF (.300 AVG, 20 HR, 78 RBI)
Scott Rolen, 3B (.262 AVG, 11 HR, 50 RBI)
Lyle Overbay, 1B (.270 AVG, 15 HR, 32 Doubles, 69 RBI)
Travis Snider, LF (.301 AVG, 2 HR, 13 RBI in 73 AB’s/.295 AVG, 23 HR, 91 RBI in Minors)
Adam Lind, DH (.282 AVG, 9 HR, 16 Doubles, 40 RBI in 326 AB’s)
Rod Barajas, C (.249 AVG, 11 HR, 23 Doubles, 49 RBI in 349 AB’s)

Utility Bats

Jose Bautista, 1B/3B/OF (.238 AVG, 15 HR)
Kevin Millar, 1B/DH (.234 AVG, 20 HR, 72 RBI)
John McDonald, INF (.210 AVG, 18 RBI in 186 AB’s)
Joe Inglett, 2B/OF (.297 AVG, 45 Runs, 9 SB in 344 AB’s)
Michael Barrett, C (.202 AVG, in 94 AB’s)

This lineup includes Vernon Wells. Although he is injured right now, he should be back in time to start the season.

The Jays are hoping that Aaron Hill returns to '07 form, while Scott Rolen can tap back into his Cardinal days. If Rolen doesn’t produce, he may be a trade chip, along with Lyle Overbay.

Toronto is high on prospect Travis Snider, who is in only his 3rd season as a pro. He is part of the core the Jays would like to build around. He probably won’t be as good a hitter as Orioles' prospect C Matt Wieters, but he should be a force.

This could be it also for Kevin Millar. Millar took a minor league deal and looks to make the big league club. He could become the best bat of the bench, and may be trade bait for a team looking to add a bench bat.

Outlook

To be honest, I really hope the Blue Jays can keep up what they are doing.

Somehow over the past couple of seasons, they have been able to pull out wins and compete in the tough AL East.

There are two main things that have allowed them to compete in the last couple of years: good power hitting and good starting pitching.

Unfortunately, both may escape this team, and they could be on the brink of rebuilding mode.

If they get off to a poor start, expect the team to shop Roy Halladay, despite GM J.P. Ricciardi saying he is not on the market. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a CC Sabathia type of deal for Halladay.

Also to be shopped if the team struggles early: 3B Scott Rolen, 1B/DH Kevin Millar, 1B Lyle Overaby, and closer B.J. Ryan.

I expect this lineup also to score a little more than last year. It will be interesting to watch the continued development of Alex Rios, and to see if Travis Snider develops into a star.

I believe that we will see some shopping done by the Jays.

They have been a good club to watch but, with a tightening budget, the team wasn’t able to add as much talent as it would have liked in the off season.

Also, since the rotation is a relatively untested bunch (besides Halladay and Litch), this bullpen, although talented, could be taxed early.

Expect a down-slide this year, but not to the bottom of the division.

Finish - Fourth in the AL East

We travel back to the states in our next visit, taking a look at the Boston Red Sox on our next stop in 30 Clubs in 30 days.