NFL Week 1 Picks: Home Teams You Would Be Crazy to Bet Against

There's no place like home in the NFL. 

It's always preferable to start the season at home. The home crowd is extra crazy and optimistic for the season ahead. The home team feeds off the energy, ready to start the season on a high note.

And for the three home teams on this list, losing at home just rarely happens in the first place.

So don't bet against them. Don't even think about it. Strike the thought from your mind. Either stay away from the game altogether or follow my advice below. 

Now click your heels three times and read on.

(Note: All betting lines via Bovada. My picks are in caps.)

Cincinnati Bengals at BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6)

If you are looking for the main reason I think you should take the Ravens outright in this one, consider that Baltimore is 28-5 (including the playoffs) at home in the past four seasons. Last year alone, they went 9-0 in Baltimore.

And since John Harbaugh took over as head coach in 2008, the team is 9-3 in September and 4-0 in openers. The Ravens tend to hit the ground running. 

Fair enough, you may be thinking, but can I really trust them laying six points against a good Bengals team?

Yes, I believe you can. Last season, they beat the Bengals by seven and eight points in the team's two meetings. They held the Bengals' best player, A.J. Green, to just two catches and 26 yards in the one game Green played against them last season.

And the Ravens won by at least seven points nine times last season. In other words, the Ravens are more likely to win by a touchdown or more when they play (if last season's trends continue) then they are to fail to cover this line.

It's a tricky line, because nobody wants to concede a touchdown when picking a team in an AFC North battle. But trust me, the Ravens are the way to go in this one.

San Francisco 49ers at GREEN BAY PACKERS (-5)

Since 2009, the Packers are 21-4 (including the playoffs) at Lambeau Field. Last season, the Packers either lost or won by less than six points just four times, giving them a 13-4 record against a -5 line. 

But wait—it gets better. One of those games was a Week 17 win (45-41) over the Detroit Lions with Matt Flynn starting. One was the loss against Kansas City. And the other two were games against the New York Giants.

In other words, with Aaron Rodgers playing in games against teams other than the Giants, the Packers would have been 13-1 if they were laying five points each week in 2011.

Yes, the 49ers are a danger to win this one outright. They traveled well enough last season, going 6-2 on the road. And they obviously play excellent defense, particularly against the run.

But against the pass, they can be beaten. They were 16th in passing yards allowed and eighth in touchdowns given up through the air. Hardly poor ranks, but hardly Rodgers-proof either.

In the end, I like the Packers to have success against the San Francisco defense and put enough pressure on Alex Smith to force him into a few turnovers. I'm taking Green Bay by a touchdown. If the game was on the West Coast, I'd probably go a different way.

Washington Redskins at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7.5)

The Saints were 9-0 at home last year. If they were laying 7.5 points in every 2011 game, they would have finished 9-7 against the spread—hardly shabby against a spread that high.

And can you imagine what it will be like for a rookie quarterback in New Orleans making his regular-season debut against a team as angry as the Saints?

You almost want to send your condolences to Robert Griffin III now. Is there a team more anxious to get on the field and absolutely crush teams quite like the Saints after the Bountygate scandal this offseason? 

The Redskins defense is solid, but they are in trouble against Drew Brees at home. This one should be a very one-sided affair, and the Saints should cover this line quite easily.

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