Fantasy Football 2012: Jamaal Charles Headlines Week 1 Q&A Session
Every Thursday of the regular season, between the hours of 10 and 11 a.m. EST, I will answer a flood of lineup-related questions from the fantasy masses, via Twitter.
Week 1 Questions
Ernie Rupp (@qsyourdaddy)
Question: I drafted Michael Turner and Jamaal Charles as the main tailbacks, but would you start Toby Gerhart over either one this week?
Answer: I have high hopes for Gerhart this season, regardless of how many carries Adrian Peterson (still recovering from a torn ACL) on a weekly basis. But then again, you didn't waste valuable draft picks last month to let Turner (2,711 rushing yards, 23 TD the last two seasons) and Charles (1,935 total yards, six TD in 2010) wallow on the bench, and you likely aren't envisioning a 1,400-yard season for Gerhart. Otherwise, to hedge your bets, you would have secured the Peterson-Gerhart handcuff.
For Week 1, just sit back, relax and hope that Turner and Charles post good-to-great numbers at Arrowhead Stadium. It's the right thing to do.
Sean Connolly (@blkndgld09)
Question: Please choose amongst Greg Jennings, Mike Wallace, Jimmy Graham and Antonio Gates. I can only start two.
Answer: First of all, let's assume this is a standard-scoring league. Secondly, let's assume there are no positional constraints here, meaning we could ride any combination of the four talents.
Given Mike Wallace's long training-camp holdout, he wouldn't make the cut before his first bout of live action.
That narrows it down to Jennings, Gates and Graham (99 catches/1,310 yards/11 TD last year). In standard-scoring leagues, I have Gates as the No. 2 tight end for Week 1 (just ahead of Graham). And amongst this week's receivers, Jennings posts a respectable No. 7 ranking (against the 49ers).
Hmmm, this might be one of those loathsome damned-if-I-do, damned-if-I-don't dilemmas in fantasy, where certain owners are actually penalized for drafting too well.
I can't believe it has come to this...but let's ride Graham and Gates. If this is a PPR question, roll with Graham and Jennings.
Marcus Aurelius (@WilcoWacko)
Question: What percentage of a $500 auction budget would you bid on (Cowboys receiver) Kevin Ogletree, and what percentage on Alfred Morris (PPR league)? I would be dropping Doug Baldwin, my No. 6 receiver.
Answer: A $500 auction budget? Why not make it $50,000? It's not like either amount would encourage owners to be fiscally responsible during a fantasy season. When it comes to guys who have absurd breakouts—especially early in the year—you can expect a handful of owners to spend hundreds to land their (sometimes-delusional) idea of the Next Big Thing.
So, the question is: How badly do you want Kevin Ogletree (eight catches, 114 yards, two TD vs. the Giants)? Or is there greater season-long value in either sticking with Doug Baldwin (51 catches, 788 yards, four TD last year)...or targeting a low-key free agent who's yet to play a game, like Donald Jones (Bills), Jerome Simpson (Vikings) or Josh Gordon (Browns)?
Or look at it this way: Do you want to be that guy who surrendered half his auction budget to land a No. 6 receiver?
My general rule for auctions: In the first half of a season, I rarely commit more than 30 percent of my existing budget on possible flavors of the month. And while we're on the subject, Morris is only a handcuff consideration right now.
Hai Tran (@bigsaltran)
Question: Who should be my starting running backs—Michael Turner, Isaac Redman, BenJarvus Green-Ellis or Maurice Jones- Drew? Thanks!
Answer: I have a firm belief in playing superstar tailbacks for Week 1, a policy that can only be dismissed under two scenarios:
a) The back is less than 10 months recovered from a major leg/knee injury (Adrian Peterson/Rashard Mendenhall).
b) The back missed all of training camp and the exhibition season, due to a contract holdout.
Now, if forced to choose, I'd rather start the holdout-centric back over a talented player who's still rehabbing a major injury. But with your team, I have the luxury of targeting Green-Ellis (24 TD in last two seasons with Patriots) and Redman (142 total yards vs. Denver in the AFC playoffs).
For one week, I have been afforded the opportunity to let MJD (the NFL's reigning rushing king) find his proverbial sea legs, before starting him in Week 2 (assuming full health).
For Week 1, let's rank 'em: Turner (@ Kansas City), Redman, Green-Ellis (@ Baltimore) and Jones-Drew.
Andrew Gatus (@redbeardhero)
Question: Are Danny Amendola or Lance Moore worth a start over Wes Welker? The Titans defense doesn't give up much with "yards after catch."
Answer: Andrew, I love that you're a regular Twitter follower and hope that you'll remain so after this little mini-rant. But you simply don't bench Wes Welker...ever!
You just finished an exhaustive draft that probably required a lot of homework. And then you want to bench a top-five receiver—playing with a top-four quarterback (Tom Brady)—on the hunch that Welker won't get a ton of yards after seven, eight or nine receptions?
Ugh!
As stated many times, Week 1 is NOT the time to overthink starting lineups. I don't care if Danny Amendola torches the Lions secondary for 12 catches, 185 yards and one touchdown on Sunday. You shouldn't be starting him, or Lance Moore, over a healthy wideout who notched 122 catches, 1,573 yards and nine touchdowns last year.
Otherwise, why even draft Welker? Or why haven't you already dealt him to an owner who'll gladly start Welker every week?
Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.
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