NFL Week 1 Picks: Uncovering the Safest Plays Against the Spread This Weekend

There are few things more difficult than betting on the first week of the NFL season.

It's hard to know which teams will hit the ground running and which will struggle early. The surprise contenders haven't yet emerged. The usual suspects remain the odds-on favorites, even if disaster looms. 

And of course, you can't predict injuries.

But you can do your research, you can use history as a guide, and you can employ a bit of common sense. I attempted to do all three when deciding on which three teams I thought were the safest plays against the spread this week.

As always, I guarantee nothing. The NFL is a fickle mistress. But I think I've found three games that you should feel very comfortable with this weekend. 

(Note: All lines via Bovada)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-9) at Cleveland Browns

Lay the points, sit back and enjoy the show.

The Eagles have one of the most dangerous passing attacks in the league, so the fact that Joe Haden might not play means the going should be even easier for Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin.

There's more to like for the Eagles. The team that finished tied atop the NFL in sacks last season (50) faces a questionable line and a rookie quarterback in Brandon Weeden. If the Browns get behind early and are forced to pass, the sacks and turnovers could accumulate quickly for the Birds.

And the Browns might not have their most exciting offensive player, Trent Richardson, for this game. It seems likely he will play, but it's hard to imagine his touches won't be limited if he does.

Even if Haden and Richardson go, I still think the Eagles win this one easily. Lay the points and enjoy the fireworks.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6) at Tennessee Titans

The Patriots lost three times last season. Of their 13 wins, only three were by six points or less. And I would argue that the addition of Brandon Lloyd makes the team's offense even better this year, hence increasing the odds that the Patriots will not only win, but will put up a lot of points in the process.

Sure, the defense isn't all that great, namely the secondary. Then again, I'm not sold on a Titans team without Kenny Britt that is starting young quarterback Jake Locker. It's hard to imagine they'll be able to keep up with the Patriots in a shootout.

Lay the points with the Pats. If last year is any indication, the odds suggest New England will win this game by more than six points.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs

I was all set to make this pick in favor of the Chiefs. I was going to hit you with knowledge like how the team finished 7-9 last year despite losing Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry, Matt Cassel and Tony Moeaki to injury, or how the Falcons were 4-5 on the road last year (including the postseason) and 6-2 at home.

I was going to let you in on my prediction that the Chiefs would win the AFC West this season.

And I still think they will. But I don't think they'll cover this weekend.

Here's the thing—they are really beat up defensively. Tamba Hali is out to suspension. While it looks like they will have Brandon Flowers, he's been out of action for the past month and will be rusty. They'll probably be without nose tackle Anthony Toribio and free safety Kendrick Lewis

And while Derrick Johnson might play, he didn't practice on Monday with an ankle injury. 

All of this worries me, especially against a very potent Falcons offense. If the Chiefs weren't so banged up on the defensive side of the ball, I would pick the Chiefs outright in this one. But as it stands, I can't turn away from the Falcons.

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