Fantasy Football Predictions: Deep Threats Who Will Dominate

Few things in sports are more exciting than when a quarterback rears back and uncorks a long pass to a receiver streaking down the sideline with an anxious cornerback on his hip.

Time stops as fans wonder whether the pass will be accurate, or the corner will swat it away or if maybe, just maybe, the receiver will catch the pass and score for his team.

Well, that's what most fans think about in that moment. Meanwhile, fantasy football players are busy calculating how many fantasy points the play would be worth for their team.

All it takes for a receiver to have a solid day in fantasy football is a 40-yard touchdown reception. Boom, 10 points for your team. So if you can add a player in your draft capable of the home-run play, it is always tantalizing.

So which deep-ball threats should you target this year? Which are in line for bounce-back seasons or destined to see a rise in production? And which of the burners should you avoid?

Only one way to find out—to the slides!

Deep Threats I Don't Trust

Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers: DeSean Jackson went into 2011 unhappy without a long-term contract extension and wanted to avoid injury. How did that work out for his fantasy owners?

Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers: There's no way he finishes with 15 touchdown receptions or seven touchdowns on passes thrown 31 yards or more this season. Just no way.

Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers: After Week 4, Cam Newton threw the ball down the field far less and was a more pedestrian fantasy passer (his value came from his rushing skills). Not surprisingly, after Week 4, Smith finished with 13 or more fantasy points just three times after accomplishing the feat in three of the first four weeks. Expect that trend to continue.

Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: He was hit or miss with Philip Rivers as his quarterback. Now, his quarterback is Josh Freeman. I'll pass.

Brandon Lloyd, New England Patriots

Josh McDaniels, Tom Brady and Brandon Lloyd all together in New England is a very, very good thing.

Two years ago, with McDaniels as his offensive coordinator in Denver, Lloyd finished with 77 receptions for 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns. Then last year, after being traded to St. Louis (where McDaniels was the OC), Lloyd managed 51 receptions for 683 yards and five touchdowns in 11 games.

So to refresh: With McDaniels as his OC in the last two years, Lloyd has 128 receptions for 2,131 yards and 16 touchdowns in 27 games. And now not only are they reunited, but Brady will be throwing the passes.

I just giggled.

I know, I know, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez will all limit Lloyd's targets, I get it. But giving Brady a dangerous field-stretching weapon is always dangerous. Remember the sweet fantasy football music he and Randy Moss made together in 2007 (when McDaniels was OC, of course)?

Don't draft Lloyd hoping he'll replicate his 2010 season. He won't get enough targets for that. But can he give you 60 catches for 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns?

Absolutely. There is big upside here.

DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles

If you want my more comprehensive take on DeSean Jackson's fantasy prospects this year, I suggest you check this out.

But here's why I think he'll bounce back in 2012: He's healthy, he's happy after getting his contract extension and he's still one of the most dangerous players in the NFL today.

Beyond the fact that he was sulky and disinterested last year, there were two main reasons we saw Jackson take such a huge hit in fantasy value last year: He's no longer a threat to poach touchdowns in the return game, and his production down the field diminished.

The former won't change. The latter should.

If you combine Jackson's 2009 and 2010 numbers on passes thrown 31 yards or more, he had 16 receptions for 847 yards and eight touchdowns. Last season, he still had eight such receptions, but his 352 yards and two touchdowns on such passes was disappointing.

Yes, deep-ball numbers have taken a dip each year—teams play a lot of two-deep coverages against the Eagles. But remember, since 2009, he's caught 16 passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage and has 44 rushes. The Eagles will keep him involved, and he's a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball.

Look for a big year from Jackson.

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons

Few did more with less than Julio Jones did in 2011.

Despite playing just 13 games and receiving a paltry 96 targets, he still finished with 54 receptions, 959 receiving yards, eight touchdowns and 17.8 yards per catch (good for seventh-best in the NFL and better than Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith and Larry Fitzgerald).

Just imagine if he gets more looks this season. Of course, if you think Roddy White and his NFL-leading 181 targets from a year ago will eat away at his production again, perhaps Jones scares you. But fear not, my young Padawan, for Jones is far too talented for Matt Ryan to ignore.

Jones might not have the incredible breakout season that everyone seems to be forecasting, but I think he'll be a top-15 receiver at the very least, with the potential to do much, much more. 2011 was but an appetizer.

Want even more on Julio Jones? I've got you covered.

A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals

Despite being just a rookie, Green emerged as one of the NFL's best deep threats in 2011, finishing with nine receptions for 383 yards and three touchdowns on passes thrown over 31 yards. His combination of size, speed, sticky hands and the ability to contort mid-air like an acrobat make him one of the most exciting receivers in football.

Like Jones, he seems poised to have an even bigger season after an impressive rookie campaign. Unlike Jones, he doesn't have to worry about another receiver or two cutting into his targets—Green is clearly Andy Dalton's No. 1 option.

There is always the danger that Green and Dalton could hit sophomore slumps in the NFL, as teams have a full year of scouting reports on them.

But Green seems too talented for that to happen to me. He has that ability like Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald to go up and pull down passes between double-coverage or snag bad passes out of the air that most other receivers would drop. Green was a revelation for my teams last season, and I expect he will be again this year.

Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions

Duh.

Seriously, I feel like I don't even need to write anything on this slide. Extolling the praises of Calvin Johnson is like feeling the need to tell people about how that Mozart guy could really hold a tune.

Nonetheless, you're here to read things, so I'll write them. Johnson does his best work in the red zone, but he's as dangerous a deep threat as you'll find in the league. On passes thrown 31 or more yards last season, Megatron had eight receptions for 371 yards and three touchdowns. 

What makes him so amazing as a deep threat, of course, is that his value isn't tied to the long ball like most of the other guys on this list. He'll do his work in the red zone. He goes over the middle. He collects catches, yards, touchdowns and targets like you used to collect Pokemon cards.

And unlike you, he gets them all. He's the best fantasy wide receiver, period. He just happens to be a deep threat too.

Hit me up on Twitter—my tweets have an ADP of one.