Fantasy Football 2012: 5 Things We Learned After Preseason Week 2
We've reached the halfway point of the 2012 NFL preseason, and while some players and teams have looked lights out, others have struggled mightily.
The performance of these players, as well as the injuries that have befallen others, have shed light on some situations that could have a significant impact on player values in fantasy football leagues this season. Savvy team owners would be advised to keep this information in mind when drafting their squads.
Here's some of what we've learned.
No. 1: The Atlanta Falcons Are Opening Up the Offense
1 of 5If the first two preseason games are any indication, new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter is taking the training wheels off of the Atlanta Falcons' offense.
After throwing for a career-high 4,177 yards last season, quarterback Matt Ryan appears set to best that mark and then some in 2012. The fifth-year pro and the Atlanta offense have come out gunning to this point this year.
Ryan has posted a quarterback rating of over 100 in both of Atlanta's preseason contests, while completing 27 of 34 pass attempts and tossing a scoring strike in each game.
If this trend continues, the fantasy stock of both Ryan and the Atlanta receivers will get a sizable boost. Running back Michael Turner may be the odd man out, with only eight carries through two games.
No. 2: Philip Rivers Is Struggling
2 of 5After throwing a career-high 20 interceptions last season, many fantasy pundits expected a bounce-back season from San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers this year.
However, to this point in the preseason, there hasn't been much to indicate that Rivers is primed for a big year. In fact, it appears that Rivers' struggles from a year ago are continuing.
Granted, the ninth-year pro is still completing a high percentage of his passes, but he's averaging less than eight yards an attempt and has thrown three interceptions—compared to only one touchdown pass.
Whether it's shaky receiver play, a turnstile offensive line or diminishing arm strength, the issues that dogged Philip Rivers seem to be continuing into this season—and the 30-year-old is becoming a risky pick as a starting fantasy quarterback.
No. 3: Dial Back the Rookie Hype a Touch
3 of 5After sterling debuts by rookie quarterbacks Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts and Robert Griffin III of the Washington Redskins, the hype machine around both signal-callers picked up quite a head of steam—including in fantasy circles.
With that said, both youngsters came back to earth a bit in their second preseason game. Luck tossed a pair of interceptions against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Griffin absorbed three sacks against the Chicago Bears.
This isn't to say that both Luck and Griffin don't have very bright futures ahead of them, but the fact remains that rookie quarterbacks on rebuilding teams are going to take their lumps, making the pair better suited to a role as fantasy reserves in redraft formats.
No. 4: Michael Bush Looks Set to Play the Vulture Role
4 of 5After losing starter Matt Forte to a knee injury last season, the Chicago Bears added free-agent running back Michael Bush in the offseason. While Forte appears set to reclaim his feature back role, Bush's arrival is already having an impact on Forte's fantasy value.
Twice in Saturday's victory over the Washington Redskins Forte gave way to Bush inside the 10-yard line, and both times Bush found paydirt.
It's reasonable to assume that this rotation will carry over into the regular season.
This wasn't entirely unexpected, given that Forte has had his struggles at the goal line. But with Bush serving as a goal-line vulture for the Bears this season, Matt Forte is going to have to do his scoring from farther out. That's certainly worth considering before drafting Forte as your fantasy RB1.
No.5: A Changing of the Guard in Green Bay?
5 of 5I've been advising caution in selecting Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jordy Nelson in fantasy drafts this season, as I had reservations about whether Nelson could come close to his 15 touchdown receptions from a season ago.
Okay, on second thought...
With Greg Jennings sidelined by a concussion, Jordy Nelson has been receiving the lion's share of the targets from quarterback Aaron Rodgers in practice, and it was Nelson that Rodgers looked to in the red zone in their preseason game against the Cleveland Browns—finding the fifth-year pro for a 20-yard touchdown.
Jennings has returned to practice, and it will be very interesting to see which direction Rodgers looks in Green Bay's third preseason contest this week.
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