8 Things the Red Sox Must Do to Make Bobby V's Playoff Prediction a Reality

Let it never be said that Bobby Valentine is not an optimistic man.

The Boston Red Sox do not look like a playoff team. They're under .500 at the moment at 55-57, and they've never been more than a few games over the .500 mark at any point during the season.

There's still a lot of baseball left to be played, but the Red Sox just don't seem to have the goods they need to erase the 5.5-game deficit they're facing in the AL wild-card chase.

But Bobby V thinks they're still alive. He told WEEI (via ESPNBoston.com) this week that he still believes in his team.

"I think we're a playoff team and I think we're going to be there before the season is over," he said.

Well, if he says so. All he can do now is hope that his club makes good on his vote of confidence.

To do that, there are eight things the Red Sox absolutely must do.

Note: All stats come from Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Survive the 1st Inning

Throughout the entire season, the Red Sox have had a bad habit of making life harder for themselves. They've been utterly incapable of surviving the first inning unscathed.

In 112 games, Red Sox starters have surrendered 82 first-inning runs. That equates to an ERA of 6.59. Opponents have hit .292/.360/.484 off Sox starters in the first inning, good for an OPS of .845.

Josh Beckett has been the primary offender. He has an ERA of 10.42 in the first inning this season, with a .329 opponents' batting average to go along with it.

This would be bad enough. What makes matters worse is that Boston's offense hasn't been at its best in first innings this year. Red Sox hitters have a .781 OPS in the first inning, with just 10 home runs. The only inning in which they've hit fewer home runs is the ninth.

For the record, the Red Sox are 9-21 when they trail after the first inning. Once they get behind, they tend to stay behind.

When they take a lead into the second inning, they're 18-6.

The lesson: Don't fall behind early. When that happens, things don't end well.

Win at Fenway Park

You know what makes no sense?

The fact that the Red Sox have a 29-34 record at Fenway Park this season. Among AL clubs, only the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals have been worse at their home ballparks.

It's not a hitting problem. Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .804 at home, compared to an OPS of .714 on the road. They love hitting at Fenway Park, as well they should.

As you are probably already aware, it's a pitching problem. Red Sox pitchers have a 4.75 ERA at home, compared to 3.82 on the road. The only team in MLB with a worse home ERA is the Colorado Rockies, who are presently using the most asinine pitching strategy ever devised.

There's nothing fluky about the struggles of Boston's pitching within the confines of Fenway Park, where opponents are slugging .445 and have hit 78 home runs. Red Sox pitchers have surrendered a lot of hard-hit balls.

Somehow, some way, this needs to stop.

Re-Solve the Bullpen Problem

Credit where credit is due, the Red Sox's bullpen has been one of the team's primary strengths this season. Red Sox relievers have a solid ERA of 3.39.

But Boston's bullpen has reverted to the ugly form it showed in April, when Sox relievers posted an unsightly 6.10 ERA. Sox relievers have been even worse in August, losing three games and posting a 6.46 ERA.

Alfredo Aceves has struggled, going 0-1 with an 11.57 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP. Vicente Padilla posted an ERA of 27.00 in two appearances before he landed on the DL with a bicep injury.

The Red Sox's bullpen has basically come full circle, and the bad news is that they're probably stuck with the relievers they have. Bobby Valentine is going to have to make do.

The bright side is that he already got his bullpen to shape up once this year, and he did it with little help from the front office. He's going to have to do that again.

The Bats Need to Stay Hot

The Red Sox have a 2-6 record in the month of August, but it's not all bad. The one positive to take away so far is that the club's bats are alive and well.

Only six teams have scored more runs than the Red Sox in August, and they have three players in Adrian Gonzalez, Cody Ross and Carl Crawford who all have OPS's over 1.000 for the month.

Gonzalez has been the hottest of the bunch, as he's hitting .484/.583/.774 with 10 RBI in the eight games Boston has played this month. Crawford has almost been equally productive, as eight of his 12 hits this month have gone for extra-bases.

Elsewhere, Mike Aviles is hitting .333 this month. Dustin Pedroia is hitting .323. Pedro Ciriaco has a .583 slugging percentage. Will Middlebrooks has hit two key three-run homers in each of Boston's last two games.

All they need is for Jacoby Ellsbury to get going, and they also need David Ortiz to pick up where he left off when he comes back from the disabled list.

And that brings us to our next point...

Stay Healthy

At no point this season have the Red Sox even been close to being 100-percent healthy. They've made more use of their disabled list than any team in baseball (except maybe the Toronto Blue Jays).

The good news is that Boston will at least have their lineup at full strength in a matter of days. Once Big Papi is activated off the DL, Bobby V will be able to pencil Ellsbury, Crawford, Pedroia, Gonzalez and Ortiz into the same lineup for the first time all season.

I repeat: All season.

It looked like Bobby V was going to be able to do this a couple weeks ago when Ellsbury and Crawford were first activated, and Pedroia was just days away from making a big return. But the next thing anybody knew, Ortiz went down with an Achilles injury.

"This (expletive) team is cursed!" he said, via Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com.

No argument there. And if the Red Sox remain cursed, they're doomed. 

So they better hope for good health. Crossed fingers and a rain dance or two are advised.

Somebody Besides Clay Buchholz Needs to Pitch

Clay Buchholz has been tremendous in his last four starts, pitching an even 30 innings and allowing just four earned runs. That's an ERA of 1.20. He's also allowed an opponents' batting average of .206.

So the Red Sox know they can rely on him to give them quality innings right now.

Everyone else? Not so much.

Jon Lester has thrown the ball much better in his last three starts, but he's still a far cry from the ace he used to be. Josh Beckett isn't fooling anybody with his stuff, and his last three starts have consisted of a sloppy outing, an injury-shortened effort and a horrendous meltdown in which he gave up eight earned runs. Boston's two supposed aces have been anything but.

Felix Doubront, meanwhile, has settled into a pattern of following up a good start with a poor start, and Aaron Cook is very hittable when his sinker isn't sinking.

It's no accident that the club's starters have an ERA over 5.00 for the season. That's par for the course, as Boston starters rank 26th in baseball with an ERA of 4.86. They've been bad all season.

There's no obvious solution to the problem. They just have to pitch better, plain and simple.

Need to Show They Belong

In case you're wondering, the Red Sox handle themselves just fine when they play bad teams. Against teams with sub-.500 records this season, Boston has a record of 26-18 and a solid team ERA of 3.77.

It's when they have to play against good teams that bad things tend to happen.

Against clubs with .500 records or better, the Red Sox are 29-39 with a 4.73 team ERA. Clubs like the Yankees, Orioles, A's and Rangers have all had their way with the Sox.

Fortunately, the Red Sox are done with the Rangers. They lost the season series two games to six, and that will be that.

Unfortunately for them, they still have nine games left against the Yankees, nine left against the Orioles, three left against the A's and six games left against the Angels.

They also still have plenty of games remaining against the Blue Jays and Rays, two quality teams.

If the Red Sox want to make the playoffs, they need to show they can hang with the best of the best.

Not that they have much of a choice from here on out, of course.

Keep Fighting

For much of the season, the Red Sox have been a dull, lifeless and downright depressing team. The indifference they showed in September of 2011 has lingered.

There have, however, been some signs of life recently.

The Red Sox have lost six of their last eight games, but it wasn't all that long ago that they took two of three from the Yankees at Yankee Stadium and then beat the Tigers in two straight at Fenway Park. In one of those wins, they had their way with reigning Cy Young winner Justin Verlander.

Some embarrassing losses against the Twins followed, and the Red Sox were outclassed by the Rangers this week. Nonetheless, they showed with their series of comebacks in Wednesday's loss that they still have some fight in them.

This is a start. What they have to do in the last few weeks of the season is fight even harder. It's debatable whether they have the talent to qualify for the postseason, but that hasn't stopped the Orioles this season.

In the eyes of many, the Red Sox have underachieved this season. All they can do now is start overachieving.

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