Breaking Down the True Value of an NFL Running Back

If recent NFL trends persist, it won't be long before running backs have less value to an NFL team than field goal kickers. 

Running backs, no matter how great, are not leading their teams to the promised land. This has become a passing league, and systems and offensive lines can make running backs productive. This has led to ball carriers being devalued in the draft and at contract-signing time. 

In the 2011 Draft there was not a running back taken until pick No. 28. In the 2012 Draft, there was just one running back taken in the top 30. To get a feel for just how pass-centered the NFL has become, there were four wide receivers taken in the top 30 in the last draft.

Alabama's Trent Richardson was the lone ball carrier to go in the top 30, and he went in the lofty third spot, but Richardson is a rare talent with freakish athletic ability, which allowed him to transcend the sinking value of his position. 

Still, when it comes to contract time, freakish talent is not going to land him a huge contract. There is no better evidence than this than Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew. 

Jones-Drew is the reigning NFL rushing leader. He has been a model of consistency and durability during his six-year NFL career. In 2011, his 1,606 rushing yards represented 82 percent of his team's rushing total and his 1,980 yards from scrimmage were 36 percent of his team's total offensive yards. His 11 total touchdowns were 79 percent of the Jaguars' offensive TDs. 

MJD was the Jaguars' only legitimate offensive threat in 2011, yet here he is holding out, and Jacksonville doesn't seem particularly concerned about it. 

Jones-Drew has two more years on his current deal and is scheduled to make a modest (for a player with this kind of production ) $4.45 million in 2012 and $4.95 million in 2013. 

It is easy to understand why MJD wants, and feels he deserves, more cash. He has been a consummate pro who has been one of the elite players at his position for years.  

Despite all of this, it's also understandable why the Jaguars are not in a rush to pay him. The Jaguars had the NFL's leading rusher and the sixth-ranked defense last season, yet they finished with a 5-11 record. 

Running backs are not winning games in the NFL. They have become a complementary piece to the passing game. 

Between the two Super Bowl teams last year, the Giants and the Patriots, the leading rusher in the regular season had 667 yards and that was BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

The Packers leading regular season rushing leader in their Super Bowl 2010 season had 703 yards. In the Saints' Super Bowl season the year before that, their regular season rushing leader had 793 yards, but all of these teams had elite quarterback play. 

Dominant running backs are not the path to success. Teams are utilizing multiple back attacks and using them as a way to keep the defense off balance. They can accomplish this with cheap options at the running back position and use that money in other spots. 

This is a terrible trend for running backs. They are battered and bruised to such a high degree that it is shocking if any running back is productive past the age of 30. By the time a running back's rookie contract is up, franchises are already leery of the inevitable decline accompanied with aging. 

These guys, no matter how productive, have little hope of getting the huge contracts handed out to almost every other position. It's not fair, but it's business, and it's smart business.