Home Run Derby 2012: Breaking Down the Odds for Each Favorite

The Home Run Derby is often an unpredictable affair, but that does not mean every player has equal odds to win the competition.

Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo and Matt Kemp are the favorites, according to the odds set by Bovada. Giancarlo Stanton was also considered a threat to win, but according to MLB.com had to withdraw due to injury. 

All three players are feared long-ball hitters, but specific circumstances will affect each player’s performance. 

Here are all the favorites broken down and analyzed.

Jose Bautista, 15-4

Bautista is currently leading Major League Baseball with 27 home runs.

If the Toronto Blue Jays' outfielder holds on to his lead, it will be the third consecutive year in which he leads the league in homers. 

Bautista is unquestionably best home-run hitter in a game, but it is the batting practice heroes who win the Home Run Derby.

He struggled in last year’s competition and hit just four home runs in the first round. These odds are slightly optimistic.

Mark Trumbo, 5-1

Trumbo has 21 jacks this season and has been a nightmare for opposing pitchers in the Los Angeles Angels’ lineup.

At 6’4” and 220 pounds, the right fielder packs plenty of power into his hits. 

He is a naturally-gifted power hitter and has an excellent shot to impress in his first All-Star appearance. 

Look for Trumbo to cruise out of Round 1 and do some serious damage in Round 2. He is a solid bet to be one of the two players in the finals.

Matt Kemp, 5-1 

If the batting practice aces win the Home Run Derby, then Kemp will have an advantage over the rest of the field.

The center fielder injured his hamstring and has not played in a game since May 30. However, he has been taking part in batting practice since June 12.

With only BP to focus on, Kemp will have his strategy and his swing in perfect condition for the contest.

The injury may actually end up being an advantage for the talented hitter. He is another excellent pick to win this year’s Home Run Derby.