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Is 2012 MLB Rookie Class the Equivalent of the NFL's Legendary 1983 Class?

Jun 4, 2018

It's just a matter of time before somebody writes a book about the wave of talented rookies that have hit Major League Baseball in 2012 called "The Kids Are Alright."

Actually, that's not a bad idea. I call dibs.

But that's later. As far as the now is concerned, baseball fans should be excited to catch a glimpse of two more talented youngsters who will be joining in the fun this week: Chicago Cubs slugging first base prospect Anthony Rizzo and Arizona Diamondbacks Tim Lincecum clone Trevor Bauer.

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As reported by MLB.com, Rizzo is making his Cubs debut on Tuesday at Wrigley Field, batting third and playing first base against the New York Mets. The word from The Arizona Republic is that Bauer will make his Diamondbacks debut on Thursday against the Atlanta Braves at Chase Field.

Neither of these guys have anything left to prove in the minor leagues. Per MiLB.com, Rizzo hit .342 with 23 home runs in 73 games for Triple-A Iowa, and Bauer was 11-1 with a 2.23 ERA in 16 starts for Double-A Mobile and Triple-A Reno.

Both Rizzo and Bauer are ready for The Show.

Be grateful, my fellow baseball junkies. We've already gotten to enjoy the baseball stylings of young studs like Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Will Middlebrooks, Yu Darvish and others this season, and now here come two more. The 2012 class of rookies is shaping up to be one of the best ever.

Oddly enough, this year's class of rookies doesn't remind me of another class of MLB rookies. It reminds me of a class of rookies that took the National Football League by storm in 1983.

I'd be lying if I were to say that I personally remember the 1983 NFL Draft, but it's one of those drafts that has long since become legendary. It's the draft that saw six quarterbacks taken in the first round, three of whom ended up in the Hall of Fame. Also taken in the first round was one of the greatest running backs of all time.

The Baltimore Colts selected John Elway No. 1 overall that year (and eventually traded him to the Denver Broncos). The Los Angeles Rams selected Eric Dickerson No. 2 overall. Jim Kelly was the No. 14 overall pick of the Buffalo Bills, and Dan Marino went No. 27 overall to the Miami Dolphins.

All Elway did during his career was pass for more than 50,000 yards and 300 touchdowns, eventually winning two Super Bowl titles at the end of his career. He's now in the Hall of Fame.

Dickerson led the NFL in rushing four times, setting an NFL record that still stands when he rushed for 2,105 yards in 1984. He's also in the Hall of Fame.

Kelly was never one of the most statistically brilliant quarterbacks, but he did end up leading the Bills to four straight Super Bowls in the early 1990s. Though he failed to win a ring, he also made it into the Hall of Fame.

Marino took the Dolphins to the Super Bowl in his second pro season in 1984, but he's mainly remembered for the gaudy statistics he put up throughout his career. He is also enshrined in Canton.

The greatness of the 1983 draft goes beyond these four players. They all made it into the Hall of Fame, but so did fellow first-rounders Bruce Matthews and Darrell Green.

Granted, not all six of those guys made an immediate impact like the one MLB's star rookies are having in 2012, but we remember them today because they went on to achieve greatness throughout their whole careers.

The question, one supposes, is whether this year's star rookies in Major League Baseball will follow suit.

Oh boy...that's a tough one...

For the sake of doing due diligence (and having a little fun), here's a look at what we're dealing with when it comes to this year's top rookies and where they could be headed. 'Tis time for an immediate discussion.

Note: Stats and projections via ESPN.com.

Mike Trout

Key 2012 Stats: .338/.399/.531, .931 OPS, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 43 R, 21 SB

Projected: .338/.399/.531, .931 OPS, 15 HR, 63 RBI, 94 R, 46 SB 

Profile

Trout is one of those guys who can do it all on a baseball field. In just a couple months' worth of big-league action this season, he's shown that he can hit, hit for power, run the bases and play exceptional defense—all things that pundits like ESPN's Keith Law said he could do.

Trout is already one of the American League's best players, and the scary part is that he's only 20 years old.

If All Goes Well...

Trout has it in him to hit .300 with 30-plus stolen bases and 100 runs scored every single season, and he's also going to win a few Gold Gloves before his career is over. Though speed is his best asset, he also has the size and strength to hit 30 home runs year after year.

Trout could have a Barry Bonds-like career, minus the controversy.

Bryce Harper

Key 2012 Stats: .280/.361/.487, .848 OPS, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 32 R, 7 SB

Projected: .280/.361/.487, .848 OPS, 16 HR, 46 RBI, 73 R, 16 SB

Profile

Harper isn't hitting home runs left and right, but he's done enough to prove that all the talk of his natural, raw power was not exaggerated.

He has a knack for collecting extra-base hits. In addition, he plays the game with a ton of aggressiveness both in the outfield and on the basepaths. Harper is not your garden-variety sluggish power hitter.

If All Goes Well...

Harper could end up hitting more than 20 home runs this season, but the thinking is that he has it in him to hit a lot more than that on a season-to-season basis. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, for example, thinks Harper could end up being an "MVP-level producer" who could flirt with a .600 slugging percentage on a yearly basis.

If he stays healthy, Harper could be a virtual lock for the 500 Home Run Club in time.

Will Middlebrooks

Key 2012 Stats: .324/.363/.581, .944 OPS, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 23 R, 2 SB

Projected: .324/.363/.581, .944 OPS, 20 HR, 74 RBI, 50 R, 4 SB

Profile

Middlebrooks has taken to the big leagues a lot quicker than a lot of people expected, and he's now in line to get plenty of playing time with Kevin Youkilis out of the picture in Boston.

Middlebrooks has a tendency to swing and miss, but he also has good plate coverage and pull power that will play well at Fenway Park. 

If All Goes Well...

Middlebrooks probably doesn't have Hall of Fame potential, but he's a guy who should make a couple All-Star teams during his career (with a little help from Boston voters). He's a third baseman with the ability to hit .300 with 30 home runs every year, and the fact of the matter is that there just aren't many of those out there anymore.


Yu Darvish

Key 2012 Stats: 9-4, 3.45 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 88.2 IP, 96 SO, 49 BB

Projected: 20-9, 3.45 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 193.2 IP, 210 SO, 107 BB

Profile

Darvish achieved great success pitching in Japan, so it goes without saying that he's not a typical rookie. So far, he's shown that he can pitch in the big leagues, effectively in large part because he has true swing-and-miss stuff.

Darvish throws his fastball in the mid-90s, and his breaking stuff moves all over the place. If he can control his stuff consistently, he'll be great.

If All Goes Well...

Once again, control is the biggest issue when it comes to Darvish. As great as his stuff is, it's not going to do him much good unless he knows where it's going.

If he controls the ball, Darvish will surpass Hideo Nomo as the greatest pitcher ever to come out of Japan. If he doesn't, he'll be just another Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Anthony Rizzo

Key 2012 Stats (minors): .342/.405/.696, 1.101 OPS, 23 HR, 62 RBI, 48 R, 2 SB

Profile

Rizzo's minor league stats speak for themselves, and experts like Law have labeled Rizzo as a classic, plus-fielding first baseman with good power who could hit a ton of home runs in the majors.

However, other experts (such as B/R's own Mike Rosenbaum) think Rizzo has a lot of holes in his game that are hidden beneath the stats.

If All Goes Well...

The questions concerning Rizzo are mainly concerned with his pitch selection, his ability to hit lefties and his tendency to swing and miss.

But even if he never figures these things out, the thinking is that Rizzo could be a perennial 30-homer guy. If he hits for average, too, he'll be a stud.


Trevor Bauer

Key 2012 Stats (minors): 11-1, 2.23 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 93.0 IP, 116 SO, 48 BB

Profile

The book on Bauer, according to Law and others, is that he is essentially the next coming of Tim Lincecum. He uses a funky delivery that is highly deceptive, and he features a mid-90s fastball and multiple curveballs that he uses to get swings and misses.

Make no mistake—his forte in the big leagues will be racking up strikeouts.

If All Goes Well...

Just as there were with Lincecum, there are concerns about Bauer's durability. But if he's even half as effective as Lincecum was early in his career, the Diamondbacks are going to have themselves a quality pitcher.

Of these six guys, Trout and Harper obviously have established themselves as the two players with the highest ceilings. They're probably going to be featured at the All-Star Game this season, and there surely will be many more of those along the way for both of them. 

Predicting whether one or both of them will make it to the Hall of Fame when all is said and done is extremely hard and indeed a task that borders on being utter silliness, but that's the kind of attention Trout and Harper demand. Trout has the look of the next Bonds, and Harper has the look of the next Mickey Mantle.

These are comparisons that one doesn't make lightly, but wouldn't you know it, I just made them.

The other four guys I discussed in depth will probably be seen at the All-Star Game at some point (Darvish could go this year). Their ceilings aren't as high as those of Trout and Harper, but they certainly have very high floors. 

Keep in mind that there are more than just six star rookies that baseball fans should be excited about right now. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Andrelton Simmons and Wilin Rosario look like quality hitters, and guys like Lance Lynn, Jarrod Parker and Wade Miley look like quality pitchers.

It's been a while since Major League Baseball has been blessed with such an exciting crop of young players. A decade from now, we could end up viewing the 2012 season the same way we view the 2001 season—a year in which stars like Albert Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, Alfonso Soriano, Roy Oswalt, Jimmy Rollins and Adam Dunn broke into the league.

A lot of talent debuted that year, but that year's class of rookies was not as deep as this year's class of rookies is; the 2012 season is going to feature about four years' worth of Rookie of the Year candidates when all is said and done.

But I digress. The question we're trying to answer is whether this year's crop of MLB rookies is baseball's answer to the NFL's legendary 1983 draft class, which produced six Hall of Famers and numerous Pro Bowlers.

There's not a doubt in my mind that some of this year's rookies are going to be All-Stars both immediately and down the line. As for the Hall of Fame thing, well, comparing football's Hall of Fame selection process to baseball's Hall of Fame selection process is kind of like comparing apples to oranges.

It's not easy to be enshrined in Cooperstown, and we're at a point in the game's history where people are starting to view numbers in different ways. Baseball's Hall of Fame selection process is complicated now, and it promises to be even more complicated later.

But MLB's 2012 rookie class doesn't have to produce six Hall of Famers to be considered on par with the NFL's 1983 draft class. The Hall of Fame selections are a big reason why the 1983 class is still remembered today, but the main reason we remember guys like Elway, Dickerson, Marino, Kelly and the others is because of the way they changed the narrative of NFL history and effectively ushered in a new era of superstars.

Even if nobody from this year's class of MLB rookies ends up being enshrined in Cooperstown, that's the kind of impact they can match. The odds are good that we will remember the 2012 MLB season as the year the kids took over.

And it was alright.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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