Wimbledon 2012: Why Roger Federer's Grand Slam Title Bid Is Hopeless

Roger Federer’s bid at a record-tying seventh Grand Slam title at Wimbledon is hopeless.

The 30-year-old Swiss native has dominated Wimbledon throughout his career, last winning in 2009 after defeating Andy Roddick 5-7, 7-6 (8-6), 7-6 (7-5), 3-6, 16-14.

That victory broke a tie with Pete Sampras for the most Grand Slam titles in men’s tennis history, giving him 15. He now has 16, but No. 17 will not be won in London.

There are three large obstacles standing in Federer’s way this year, one of whom has owned him since the beginning of 2011.

Father Time

Despite playing as well as he currently is, Federer is fighting against time itself.

If he were to win in London, he would be pushing Rod Laver for the title of second-oldest man ever to win at Wimbledon. The last time anyone over 30 years old won there was in 1975, when Arthur Ashe became the oldest to win Wimbledon—at 31 years, 11 months and 25 days old.

As Jon Wertheim of SportsIllustrated.com says in a column on Federer, it’s not all at once that the supremacy fades:

"As sports figures get on in years, they don’t go into a free fall. It’s the consistency that goes first. Sometimes they have the magic. Other times there’s no coin—only a tuft of gray hair—behind their ears...So it goes, as an athlete ages. One game, you’re hitting your shots and locking down LeBron [James]. The next game, you get blown out at home."

Federer has looked very good at times this year. Other times, he’s looked like the aged veteran he is. He hasn’t won a major in over two years, and he hasn’t been ranked No. 1 since the week of May 25, 2010—25 months ago. Those days may be over.

An Olympic Distraction

In sports, looking ahead is often a bad idea. It creates a lack in preparation and concentration that eventually dooms most players.

That could be no different for Federer.

He is already excited to compete in his fourth Olympics for his country—at Wimbledon in just three weeks, no less.

Federer told Julian Shea of Metro.co.uk he is already looking forward to competing for Switzerland at the 2012 Olympics.

"I’m super-excited to be part of it again—being part of it [the first time in 2004] was like a school...Being there, a place I never thought I would be while growing up, was something very special...This one, playing the Olympics here [at Wimbledon], is going to be an incredible treat for this generation of players…I’m sufficiently highly ranked that I actually have a chance to do something for Switzerland which is a big deal."

A big deal, yes. However, there is also a little tourney going on now that’s kind of a big deal. This could be his last realistic chance at tying Pete Sampras’ record of seven Wimbledon titles, and looking ahead to the Olympic Games could be costly.

Novak Djokovic

The world’s No. 1 tennis player has tallied six victories to just one defeat in the past 17 months over Federer. His recent dominance will continue—should the two meet in the semifinals.

Overall, Federer holds a 14-12 record against Djokovic, but most of those victories came during a time when Novak was cutting his teeth on the tour. The most recent match came at Roland Garros, where Djokovic won in straight sets of a semifinal 6-4, 7-5, 6-3.

Federer—though playing well—is on the downswing of his career. Djokovic is five years younger and serving up better tennis than Federer currently is.

Those facts put together with his age and the Olympic-sized distraction in his way are going to make it nearly impossible to take down No. 1 on his way to No. 7. There is no way the elder takes down the younger this time around.

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