NFL Fantasy 'Head-2-Head': Darren McFadden vs. Maurice Jones-Drew

My NFL Fantasy "Head-2-Head" series will chronicle choices between two somewhat similar players, in terms of value, talent and ADP. I'll break down the pros and cons of each, and my verdict on who I think you should pick in your draft. I'll break down a scenario in your draft, and what you need to be thinking or doing in that scenario.

Scenario: You're in the back end of a 12-team draft. All the stud signal-callers like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady are gone, as are the top three backs in LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster and Ray Rice.

You want to go with a high-upside back, and you're staring at two choices between Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew, who, according to FFC, are both being taken as late first-rounders. 

Darren McFadden has played four seasons in the NFL, and never exceeded 13 games. He has been sensational the last two seasons; he's had just five games where's scored singe digit fantasy days, and a few of them were when he got injured.

He had an unbelievable 5.4 yards per carry last season. He's a big play waiting to happen; he had a 142 offensive touches last season and 19 of them, or just over 13 percent of them went for 10 yards or more.

With McFadden's speed, if he gets to 10 yards, or the second level, the odds of him going the distance are pretty significant. Prorate his numbers last season to a full 16 games, and he winds up with 286 fantasy points. That outscores last season's top-scoring back, Ray Rice, by three points. 

Maurice Jones-Drew has been the model of consistency, and concerns about him having Steven Jackson syndrome have been put to rest each year. He's the Jacksonville Jaguars' first, second and third option at the goal-line, and rookie Blaine Gabbert will need to lean on Pocket Hercules if he wants to have any chance of succeeding in the NFL.

Despite the middling to awful Jacksonville offense, MJD has carried the ball 945 times since he's become a starter, and produced an average of 1440 rush yards per season.

Like McFadden, he's an adept receiver who has caught 53, 34 and 43 passes in the last three seasons, and averaging an extra 355 yards from scrimmage catching the ball. He's not the big play-threat McFadden is; his YPC is a serviceable, but not jaw-dropping 4.6. 

So who do you pick?

In terms of consistency and staying healthy, you've gotta go with MJD...right? I talk about the potential of McFadden being the No. 1 back in fantasy, but that isn't possible if he doesn't stay on the field. He's had foot and ankle injuries that could be crippling for an NFL whose game is predicated on speed and making great cuts, but an NFL.com report out of camp is positive, as he's giving it a full go in camp. But you just never know with those reports. 

MJD also has no competition whatsoever for carries and touches.

Rashad Jennings and DuJuan Harris aren't challenging the Mighty Mite any time soon. Like we mentioned earlier, there aren't many guys who are more of a lock for over 350 touches, and the lion's share of his team's goal line carries. But although MJD had "just" 343 carries, with 43 catches, he had 386 offensive touches last season. That's a lot.

While it doesn't strictly fit him in the definition of one of the weirdest phenomenons that plague fantasy backs, the "Curse of the 370," you have to be wary of MJD breaking down, getting hurt or having a lower YPC.

People want to talk injuries with McFadden, but you can't deny the fact that 386 touches in a season for a 5'7'' running back is way too much for the good of his health. 

The Raiders didn't sign a big, goal-line back either, but you have to think that they'll be cautious with their star runner by not sending him to the goal line car crashes.

They picked up Mike Goodson, but he's nobody's idea of a short-yardage specialist and more of a third-down guy. 

My prediction is that since Goodson isn't a goal-line specialist, his role isn't to vulture short touchdowns from Run DMC, but rather to back him up in case he does get hurt because Oakland feels he can do some similar things, just not nearly as well.

However, I'm not worried even if Oakland adds a goal line back, maybe a Cedric Benson. In 2010, when McFadden played thirteen games (his closest to a full season), he scored just four of his ten total touchdowns from "goal-line" situations.

Conclusion: I think the fact that McFadden has such huge upside makes him the pick here.

I think the injury concerns are a tad overstated, and MJD has wear-down concerns of his own. I also would make sure, if I get Run DMC to pick up Goodson to handcuff him.

I am predicting that McFadden will play between 12-14 games, but with his upside, that will be enough for him to finish among the top-five in running backs.

Grab the guy on the upswing, not the downswing in MJD.