2012 NBA Mock Draft: Assessing Actual Value of Most Polarizing 1st-Rounders
The anticipatory lead-up to June 28's NBA draft wouldn't be any fun were it not for the heated debates surrounding a few especially polarizing prospects.
Beyond the obvious questions surrounding just how good some of these guys are, there are even more pressing disagreements about how they'll fit with teams and what those teams want in the first place.
Another mock draft won't put the arguments to rest.
To the contrary, our best guesses are but preludes to endless back-and-forth. When all the wheeling and dealing is said and done, chances are we'll all be wrong.
As we close in on the big day with the draft combine and some team workouts in the rearview mirror, here's one scenario that makes sense.
1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis, PF (Kentucky)
What is there left to say about Anthony Davis? It's no mistake that he's a lock to land No. 1. His defense is dominant, and his offense has a very good chance of coming along. The Hornets got lucky—big time.
2. Charlotte Bobcats: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF (Kentucky)
There may be hints that Charlotte prefers Thomas Robinson here, but those could be attempts to leverage trade position for all we know. MKG still makes the most sense for Charlotte given the team's lack of perimeter defense and need for a guy who can excel in the full court.
3. Washington Wizards: Thomas Robinson, PF (Kansas)
Robinson's fate will largely depend on whether the Bobcats keep the second overall pick and whether teams are willing to wait on MKG to become a better shooter. Robinson should be selected in the top five one way or another, and likely the top three given how much Washington and Charlotte both need a power forward who can score—as well as their needs for toughness and maturity.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Bradley Beal, SG (Florida)
There are plenty of good reasons to believe either the Bobcats or Wizards will take Beal before Cleveland has its chance, but there are just as many reasons he'll slip to the fourth spot. That would be perfect for the Cavs given the team's lack of options at shooting guard.
5. Sacramento Kings: Harrison Barnes, SF (North Carolina)
Barnes could go anywhere in the top five after Anthony Davis is taken, but he will probably fall to Sacramento by default. That's great for the Kings given how badly the team needs a starting small forward who would allow Tyreke Evans to either return to the backcourt or serve as trade bait.
6. Portland Trail Blazers (from Brooklyn Nets): Andre Drummond, C (UConn)
Drummond certainly generates a range of opinions, but no one can really deny his upside. That—along with his ability to defend and rebound from day one—should be good enough to convince a team like Portland he's worth a premium pick. Without better options to play center for the Trail Blazers, they might not have much choice.
7. Golden State Warriors: Perry Jones III, PF (Baylor)
On the one hand, Jones' 6'11" size and swingman-like quickness make him an almost irresistible prospect. On the other hand, his failure to consistently capitalize on that skill set at the is a legitimate concern given how many big guys have flopped at the pro level.
The final verdict? Jones is worth the gamble. He's the kind of player who's easily misused, and that may be largely to blame for his up-and-down freshman and sophomore campaigns at Baylor. It could take him some time to discover his role, but when he finds it, watch out.
8. Toronto Raptors: Jeremy Lamb, SG (UConn)
Jose Calderon is one of the NBA's best passers, and a shooter like Lamb could make him look even better. If his game reaches its full potential, he could give Toronto the closest thing it has to an All-Star.
9. Detroit Pistons: Terrence Jones, SF (Kentucky)
This pick is probably a toss-up between a high-upside option like Jones and a high-impact defender like John Henson. Given how badly Detroit needs a future star, Jones might have the edge.
10. New Orleans Hornets (via Minnesota Timberwolves): Damian Lillard, PG (Weber State)
This selection has become one of the bigger question marks in the draft, but if someone like Lillard is still available, that could convince the Hornets to hold on to the pick. The dynamic point guard scores from anywhere and features exciting quickness.
11. Portland Trail Blazers: Kendall Marshall, PG (North Carolina)
There's still a good chance Portland winds up moving this pick, but Marshall's a great find if they don't. He doesn't have the upside some of the scorers left on the board will feature, but that should be fine by the Trail Blazers. They just need a guy who can run the point without making too many mistakes.
12. Milwaukee Bucks: Tyler Zeller, C (North Carolina)
Zeller is anything but polarizing. To the contrary, he's probably one of the safest bets among big men in this draft. Given Milwaukee's need for a guy who can step in for Andrew Bogut right away, a sure thing would be a perfect fit for this club.
13. Phoenix Suns: Austin Rivers, G (Duke)
Rivers has generated conflicting opinion as much as any prospect in this draft. He's an excellent scorer and has the intelligence to succeed at the NBA level, but he's also a bit of a ball-hog.
Of course, that could change with time and the right situation, but teams would prefer him to be more deferential. Regardless of the existing misgivings surrounding the undersized shooting guard's game, it's hard to imagine him falling outside of the lottery given his undeniable star potential.
14. Houston Rockets: John Henson, PF (North Carolina)
Thanks to his proficiency as a rebounder and shot-blocker, Henson could be gone before the Rockets get a chance to take him. Teams like the Pistons and Bucks could get there first. Otherwise, though, Henson's the perfect change of pace from the comparatively flat-footed Luis Scola.
15. Philadelphia 76ers: Terrence Ross, SG (Washington)
With Lou Williams a free agent and Jodie Meeks a less-than-ideal starter, Ross could find a perfect fit in Philly. He could go a few spots ahead of this, but the 76ers have to hope the well-rounded 6'6" guard stays on the board just long enough.
16. Houston Rockets (via New York Knicks): Dion Waiters, G (Syracuse)
To hear some describe Waiters, he could be the closest thing we've seen to Dwyane Wade in a while. That's high praise, and it's probably somewhat unfounded as well.
Yes, Waiters has the unique size and slashing instincts that have defined Wade, but it's still anything but clear that he can be either the shooter or dynamic teammate that it would take to become an All-Star.
Assuming lottery teams don't buy into the hype and take Waiters ahead of Houston, the Rockets could luck out and add a solid piece to the backcourt. Even if he doesn't become an All-Star, he could be incredibly useful for a deep rotation.
17. Dallas Mavericks: Meyers Leonard, C (Illinois)
With Brendan Haywood clearly in no position to man the center spot for Dallas over the long term, the Mavs have to start looking forward. Leonard would be too much of a gamble to be taken in the lottery, but he's well worth the risk by this juncture of the first round.
18. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Utah Jazz): Moe Harkless, SF (St. John's)
Assuming Minnesota misses out on the likes of Terrence Ross or Dion Waiters, the next best bet would be taking a talented swingman like Harkless. He could become a trade chip or otherwise free the organization up to move some of its other young forwards.
19. Orlando Magic: Arnett Moultrie, PF (Mississippi St.)
Moultrie isn't enough of a legitimate center to step in for Dwight Howard if and when he finally moves on, but he would give Orlando's frontline some sorely missing youth and athleticism all the same. The 6'11" forward rebounds, runs the floor and has a solid perimeter game.
20. Denver Nuggets: Tony Wroten Jr., PG/SG (Washington)
Based on upside alone, Wroten looks a lot like a lottery pick, but there are too many other combo-guard types who are further along in their development for him to go that high. Look for a team with patience to take him. Given Denver's youth and depth, Wroten would have time to grow here.
21. Boston Celtics: Royce White, SF/PF (Iowa State)
Worries about White's anxiety issues may keep him out of the lottery, but it would be unfortunate for him to fall far beyond that. The versatile forward found ways to remain quite successful at the collegiate level, and in time he should be able to do the same thing in the NBA.
White can score and rebound with the best of them, and he's one of those rare tweener forwards who looks like he could actually make it at the NBA level. If there's any roster on which he could make an immediate impact off the bench, it's the aging Celtics.
22. Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers): Fab Melo, C (Syracuse)
Even if the Celtics land a center via trade or free agency, Melo would be a nice solution for the future. He's got good size and the kind of athleticism in the paint Boston doesn't have outside of Kevin Garnett.
23. Atlanta Hawks: Draymond Green, F (Michigan St.)
In a perfect world, the Hawks would find a guard who could take free agent Kirk Hinrich's place in the backcourt. Given that the most promising candidates are likely to be off the board, Green could be the best option to revitalize Atlanta's bench.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Los Angeles Lakers): Jeff Taylor, SF (Vanderbilt)
If Beal winds up being the guy who falls to the four spot, that will leave Cleveland in need of a small forward—even if free agent Alonzo Gee returns. Taylor would be a great find here, and he'd lend a mature defensive presence that's rarely found among rookies.
25. Memphis Grizzlies: Jared Sullinger, PF (Ohio State)
Sullinger's recently-revealed back problems are likely to send him plummeting past the lottery range in which he once looked primed to land. Even before the concerns about his back, there were some doubts about how his size and game would translate to the NBA game. His lack of explosiveness puts him in position to either become the next Carlos Boozer or—less ideally—the next Glen Davis.
Now, of course, the debate about what will become of Sullinger is all the more heated. He certainly could slip beyond this point, but a playoff team like Memphis would be wise to take its chances. The Grizzlies like to feed the ball to the post, and Sullinger could form a dangerous rotation with power forward Zach Randolph and center Marc Gasol.
26. Indiana Pacers: Evan Fournier, SG (France)
The Pacers don't have many pressing roster needs, and it wouldn't be a stretch to see Indiana bring in a valuable long-term asset to help the club trade for a legitimate star. Fournier has the potential to become a very good scorer, and he could be useful either as a bench contributor or trade chip.
27. Miami Heat: Festus Ezeli, C (Vanderbilt)
The Heat could look to pad their point-guard depth, but the combination of Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole is better than anything this team has at the center position. That makes the shot-swatting Ezeli a smart choice.
28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Andrew Nicholson, PF (St. Bonaventure)
Nicholson has one of the best mid-range games of any big forward in this draft, and that's one of the very few things OKC actually needs. It would serve them especially well given the team's need for some additional scoring off the bench.
29. Chicago Bulls: Marquis Teague, PG (Kentucky)
Before you write off Chicago's chances of landing Teague, remember that the only team in front of the Bulls with an equally compelling need for a point guard (at this stage of the draft, anyway) is the Miami Heat. If the Bulls have to trade up a couple of spots, they just might.
30. Golden State Warriors (via San Antonio Spurs): Quincy Miller, SF (Baylor)
At just 19 years old, Miller remains one of the more undeveloped prospects with a shot at landing in the first round. He has excellent length, though, and made his mark as one of the best freshmen in the Big 12.
