Fantasy Football 2012: 3 Reasons You Don't Want the 1st Pick This Year

Having the first pick in the fantasy draft can be great for a few reasons.

For one, you can build around the piece you want. Also, there is a slight competitive edge that comes from first-mover advantage. Of course, to maintain that advantage, the owner of the No. 1 pick must continue to draft well. 

But there are always some drawbacks to picking first: Waiting until pick No. 20 (or later depending on your league size) can be agonizing, and having bookend picks the rest of the way can make it difficult to manage your positional depth.

And this year, there are additional reasons why having the first pick overall may not be the best; let’s start with the most obvious…

No Consensus No. 1

Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice and Aaron Rodgers are all players worthy of consideration for the first overall pick in 2012.

Foster is probably the most likely to go No. 1 overall, but he is a player who missed three games last year and part of another with hamstring issues. Also, Foster has a quality backup in Ben Tate. The Texans may lighten Foster’s load this year to keep him healthy throughout the season.

Foster led all RBs in per-game production at 19.2 (ESPN standard scoring), but there are still those question marks for this year’s potential No. 1.

While there are no sure things in fantasy football, an owner shouldn't have to worry too much about the potential production from a No. 1 overall pick.

Awareness of QB and TE Draft Strategies Is Key

An important part of 2012 fantasy drafts will be how the QB and TE positions are drafted.

Some QBs will likely be taken in Round 1 and maybe even a TE will be selected (Rob Gronkowski), but how many QBs in total will be taken in Round 1? And where will they be drafted?

If you have a mid- to late first-round pick, you can watch a QB-run develop and decide if you want in, draft Calvin Johnson or stick with a RB-first philosophy and grab Maurice Jones-Drew.

And while the owner of the No. 1 pick will probably watch Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Larry Fitzgerald come off the board before their next pick, a mid- to late first-round pick will have a chance to select at least one of those top receiving threats in the second round. 

Option To Go Unconventional

A late first-round pick will allow you to go the unconventional route with one of your first two selections if you so choose, as you can nab two players in the Top 15. This scenario could land you one of the best WRs or TEs AND a RB such as Ryan Mathews, Chris Johnson or Marshawn Lynch.

A mid-first-round pick, which would likely be used on a RB or top QB, should leave you in good position in Round 2 to get a top WR or TE (as I mentioned in the above section).

This year’s drafts should be interesting; having part of one play out before your first pick could be a good thing, so don’t be too upset of you don’t land the No. 1 pick this year.