NL MVP Rankings: Does Anyone Pose a Challenge to Matt Kemp?

One of the best debates fans and media engage in through a baseball season is which player deserves the Most Valuable Player award. Yet in the National League, Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp is threatening to take all the suspense out of race. 

But though Kemp already looks like the runaway winner, there are still five months remaining in the 2012 season. Plenty can happen between now and the end of September.

Players off to fast starts can burn out. Others can emerge after shaking off early-season struggles. And of course, there are always injuries to consider. But let's knock on wood there because that would be a terrible way to determine an MVP race. 

Though Kemp seems absolutely determined to win the award he lost out on last year, there are a few players who might provide a challenge to his seemingly inevitable coronation. 

Here's how one list of candidates stacks up thus far. 

5. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants

By the time the season ends, Pablo Sandoval might not be the top MVP candidate on his own team. Buster Posey will surely challenge, if not surpass Sandoval's numbers. 

But Sandoval is currently in or near the top 10 of the NL in virtually every offensive category.

His 15 RBI are tied for the seventh-highest total in the league; his five home runs are tied for fourth; his .323 batting average is good for ninth and his .548 slugging percentage is 11th among NL batters.

The only area where Sandoval might be showing some slippage is at third base.

Last season, Ultimate Zone Rating had him among the best defensive third baseman in the majors. It's too early to determine where he'll rate this season, but he's off to a shaky start with the glove. 

4. Adam LaRoche, Washington Nationals

Perhaps you've heard that the Washington Nationals have had some trouble scoring runs this year. Their 75 runs are the second-lowest total in the NL, and if they don't start putting up some more, the Pittsburgh Pirates (65) are going to catch them soon.

What offense the Nats have been able to generate is due in large part to Adam LaRoche. Going into the season, no one would likely have had him on a list of MVP candidates.

But with Michael Morse out with a lat injury, LaRoche has done his best to pick up the slack. The Nats are a first-place team (though currently by just a half-game), and if they can stay in the NL East race, his performance will warrant heavy consideration.

LaRoche's .921 OPS is tied for 14th in the NL, and his .398 on-base percentage is currently ninth. 

If LaRoche returns to his usual form, his typical 25 home runs and 90 RBI won't be nearly enough to get him the MVP prize. But if the Nats continue to win and he remains one of their best hitters, LaRoche should stay in the discussion. 

3. David Wright, New York Mets

We sang David Wright's praises in an earlier post here at Horsehide Chronicles. The man deserves a contract extension from the New York Mets. 

But let's continue that sentiment. Wright's .395 batting average and 1.060 OPS trails only Matt Kemp among NL hitters. His .495 on-base percentage leads the major leagues. That would make up for home run and RBI numbers that aren't quite ranked among the NL leaders right now.

Those numbers could improve as the Mets build a stronger lineup around him. Kirk Nieuwenheis and Lucas Duda are emerging as solid contributors, while Ike Davis is trying to shake off a bad start plagued by valley fever. If he and Jason Bay can return to form, Wright will likely get more pitches to hit and runners to drive in. 

Most importantly, the Mets are playing well. They're two games over .500 and just 1.5 games out of first place in the NL East, two positions most observers didn't predict for them before the season. 

2. David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals

Postseason fluke? World Series MVP David Freese is picking up right where he left off in October, crushing the ball for the St. Louis Cardinals. 

The issue with Freese has always been whether or not he can get through a full season healthy. There's obviously a long way to go, but Freese was able to stay in the lineup throughout April. Consequently, he's putting up big numbers.

His six home runs are tied for the third-highest total in the NL, and only Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp have more RBI in the NL than Freese's 23. His .940 OPS is ninth in the league. 

Really, the only aspect of Freese's game that seems to be lacking is his ability to draw walks. But that hasn't been a big part of his approach four seasons into his major league career. 

With 123 runs, the Cardinals have scored more than any other team in the NL. They have a deep batting order that hasn't seemed to miss a beat with Albert Pujols gone and Lance Berkman battling injuries. Freese will get plenty of opportunities to drive in runs from the No. 5 spot in the lineup.

If he stays in the lineup (and fends off lovestruck reporters), he'll be rightly seen as a big reason why the Cardinals contend for a playoff spot. 

1. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers

Well, I hope you bothered to read the rest of this list because there's no mystery as to who the top MVP candidate in the National League is. 

Matt Kemp is running laps around the rest of his big league peers right now. His .409 batting average leads the majors, as does his 1.349 OPS and 12 home runs. No one else is close to putting up the same kinds of numbers across the board. 

The scene at Dodger Stadium Saturday night is one we could be seeing repeatedly throughout the 2012 season. On a night where Bryce Harper's major league debut got most of the spotlight and Stephen Strasburg pitched a dominant seven innings, Kemp destroyed the evening's narrative with one swing of the bat.

Nationals reliever Tom Gorzelanny teed up a fastball right down the heart of the plate, and Kemp absolutely crushed it to deep center field. It was a no-doubter, giving the Dodgers an extra-innings walk-off win. 

The Dodger Stadium crowd began the "M-V-P" chant while the ball was still in the air. Once the ball landed in the seats and Kemp circled the bases, that chant got louder and louder. Kemp had a glowing smile on his face, riding his imaginary horse as he joined his celebrating teammates at home plate.

It was one of the most memorable moments of the season so far.

The Dodgers also currently have the largest first-place lead in the NL at four games, and falling out of playoff contention is what arguably cost Kemp the MVP award last year.  

Kemp's just not leaving anything to chance this time around. He wants that award.

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