Fantasy Football's Top 7 Rookies from Round 1 Heading into the 2012 Season

The following slideshow forecasts the seven most impactful fantasy rookies from Round 1 of the 2012 NFL Draft. While compiling the rankings, I gave strong consideration to the following factors:

1. Each player's current skill set and potential developmental curve over the next few months.
2. Each rookie's likely competition at his respective position.
3. The complementary pieces around each rookie for Year 1.
4. Each rookie's opportunity for immediate statistical success.

It bears repeating: these rankings only account for the 11 playmakers taken in Thursday's opening round. Additionally, the projections for 2013 and beyond have little bearing here.

So, if you're displeased that Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins), Brandon Weeden (Browns), A.J. Jenkins (49ers) or David Wilson (Giants) didn't make the cut...it's nothing personal. Just immediate fantasy business.

Enjoy the show!

7: WR Kendall Wright, Tennessee Titans

As a long-term asset, Wright (108 catches, 1,663 yards, 14 TDs in 2011) could evolve into the Titans' No. 1 receiver. But for 2012, Wright will likely play a tertiary role behind Kenny Britt (14 catches for 271 yards and three TDs in his only two full games last year) and Nate Washington (my No. 24 wideout), two sublime talents with game-breaking skills.

By drafting Wright, the Titans stealthily killed two birds with one proverbial stone: QBs Matt Hasselbeck/Jake Locker get another passing weapon to play with...and tailback Chris Johnson (1,465 total yards in 2011) might not see eight defenders in the box on standard down-and-distance situations all season.

Early targets: 48 catches, 734 yards and five touchdowns.

6: WR Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals

It's so odd that Keyshawn Johnson said what I had been thinking for some time. Whenever TV networks would show a video montage of the Notre Dame standout, it mostly featured shots of Floyd running to a spot and then outleaping his man for the ball. And while this looks great on tape, does that really translate to the NFL life, especially between the 20s?

Sure enough, Keyshawn made the exact same point during ESPN's coverage before Round 1.

So, now I'm left with ambivalent fantasy feelings: yes, the supremely athletic Floyd (100 catches, 1,147 yards, nine TDs last year) has Larry Fitzgerald as his new mentor; and yes, the Cardinals desperately need an explosive WR2 to prevent fewer double teams on Fitzgerald.

But does Floyd have enough route-running prowess to make sharp, angled cuts and run perfectly timed routes in Year 1? I'm torn here.

Early targets: 51 catches for 737 yards and six touchdowns.

5: QB Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

As of Friday morning, the Colts' offensive depth chart resembles that of a depth-free, downtrodden team. So, even if Luck may be the finest QB prospect since fellow Stanford alum John Elway (No. 1 pick in the 1983 NFL draft), he will only be as good as the talent that surrounds him (or lack thereof).

Now comes the huge qualifier to support this middling ranking: Assuming the Colts have a plan to restock the shelves at running back, receiver and tight end (Coby Fleener, anyone?), Luck's ranking could improve as soon as Friday or Saturday.

And at the very least, he'll be a top-seven fantasy quarterback heading into the 2015 season. He just needs a little time and seasoning to rival Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton three years from now.

Early targets: 3,400 yards passing and 23 touchdowns.

4: RB Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers deserve major props for sticking to their plan of drafting an elite running back in Round 1...even if they didn't land Trent Richardson. But Boise State's Martin (1,554 total yards, 16 TDs in 2011) may, in time, prove to be the perfect back for head coach Greg Schiano's power-rushing attack.

For now, Martin will likely split carries with incumbent LeGarrette Blount; but one look at Martin's highlight reel tells us his day as Tampa Bay's feature back will come, sooner than later. It's hard to project great college backs into the pros, but you'd be hard-pressed to find anything about Martin's game that won't translate well to the next level.

If he wants the ultimate real-world and fantasy respect, Martin must evolve into a 40-catch talent within the first two seasons.

Early targets: 1,034 total yards and six touchdowns.

3: WR Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville Jaguars

Strange but true: Blackmon (121 catches, 1,522 yards, 18 TDs with Oklahoma State in 2011) might have landed in the perfect spot with the Jaguars.

His new coach, Mike Mularkey, will do wonders with the Jacksonville passing game, which includes boosting the confidence of second-year QB Blaine Gabbert. He'll also find creative ways to get the ball into the hands that matter—Blackmon, Maurice Jones-Drew, Laurent Robinson, Marcedes Lewis—as often as possible.

As an Atlanta resident, I've seen Mularkey's handiwork from up-close the last few years. Label him a 'conservative' all you want, but the Falcons were top-10 stalwarts in yards passing, points per game, yards per game and passing efficiency; and Mularkey can bring similar productivity to the Jaguars' anemic passing attack, albeit on a smaller scale in 2012.

Bottom line: if Blackmon is truly a hybrid of Anquan Boldin, Dez Bryant and Derrick Mason...what's stopping him from being a 70-catch, 900-yard talent as a rookie and earning Round 8 status before the August drafts?

Early targets: 74 catches for 937 yards and seven touchdowns.

2: QB Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins

I cannot recall the last time a top-two draft pick at quarterback had four stupendous receiving options in his rookie season. But that's how the ball bounced for Griffin, the most electric talent to enter the NFL since, uh, Cam Newton last year.

Obviously, no one is suggesting Griffin (4,992 total yards, 47 TDs last year at Baylor) will rack up 4,700 total yards and 35 touchdowns, a la Newton with Carolina, but Griffin certainly has more pass-catching talent at his disposal—from receivers Pierre Garcon and Leonard Hankerson to tight end Fred Davis and running back Roy Helu (a top-15 pick in Points Per Reception drafts), among others.

Bottom line: Griffin will have his share of rookie bumps; it's an inevitable rite of passage for all quarterbacks not named Cam Newton. But his fantasy potential has no limits.

Early targets: 3,750 total yards and 22 touchdowns.

1: RB Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns

As Day 1 quarterbacks, Robert Griffin and Andrew Luck will likely clear Richardson's rookie stats with the Browns. But from a pure impact standpoint, Richardson should be the most coveted draft-day asset in standard-scoring leagues.

The best fantasy template for Richardson might be Adrian Peterson, from his rookie campaign of 2007. During that preseason, Peterson's pre-draft value consistently stood at 46, even though fantasy owners were aware of his immense upside. Richardson, for what it's worth, currently ranks 49th in my Top 75.

My philosophy on rookie backs is quite simple: They need the least practice time to prepare for NFL games, and their fresh legs, comparatively speaking, make them more attractive than tailbacks approaching 30 years old.

In other words, if you have the means to grab Richardson (2,017 total yards, 24 TDs with Alabama last year) in Rounds 4 or 5...take a deep breath, free yourself of all negative thoughts and boldly grab a major talent who's no worse than the No. 20 fantasy back.

Early projections: 1,278 total yards and nine touchdowns.