Fantasy Football 2012: The Potential Impact of Holdouts

The list of players that have missed voluntary workouts in 2012 because of contract negotiations includes fantasy standouts Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Drew Brees and Wes Welker. 

However, holdouts often come at a cost for teams, players and fantasy owners. A holdout usually ends end up hurting the player’s production in that year. Last year, DeSean Jackson and Chris Johnson experienced significant statistical declines after missing training camp and preseason games. Of course, they were major disappointments for their fantasy owners as well.

Johnson held out all of training camp and preseason in 2011 to get a four-year, $53.5 million extension. However, he did not perform up to expectations after signing the deal and getting on the field.

There was speculation that he was out of shape upon finally beginning activities with the Titans. Whether true or not, Johnson started the season slow. He picked up production in the second half, finishing with 1,047 rushing yards. But it was the worst season of his four-year career, as he totaled only four TDs.

In 2011, Jackson held out at the beginning of training camp because he was unhappy with his contract situation. However, he returned to the team August 8th despite not receiving a long-term deal.

Jackson had a career-low 58 receptions in 2011, with just 15 catches of 20-plus yards after having 21 in 2010. He was perhaps the best big-play receiver in 2010, leading the league with an average of 22.5 yards per reception.

This offseason, the Eagles gave Jackson the franchise tag before eventually signing him to a five-year deal worth $51 million. They will be counting on Jackson to return to his 2010 form.

Whether accounting for all of the statistical decline or only part, both Johnson and Jackson had the worst seasons of their careers after their holdouts.

For the top players who may be considering holding out in 2012, the impact on their fantasy production could be similar. 

Maybe none of them will hold out, but out of the group, Forte seems the most likely candidate. He has shown frustration with the Bears organization over the lack of a long-term commitment and with their recent signing of RB Michael Bush. 

Rice and Welker seem less likely to carry a holdout into the regular season or deep into the preseason. Also, both have been consistent fantasy performers over the past few years.

For Brees, it doesn't seem to be a major concern yet. If Carson Palmer can retire for 10 months and have the highest yards per completion of his career (8.39, No. 4 in the NFL), then Brees should be okay if he misses a preseason game or two.

Of course, the Saints should never let it get to that point. They will need Brees to be their rock throughout the season as they handle a year without head coach Sean Payton and six games without assistant Joe Vitt. The best way for the Saints to keep some level of normalcy is by signing Brees to a long-term deal.

While holdouts are part of the business side of the NFL and one of the players’ tools for negotiation, the effects can be negative for all parties, especially as the length of the holdout increases. So if these stars do hold out, take into account a potential drop-off in fantasy value on draft day.