Fantasy Football 2012: 5 Unpredictable Performers for 2012

As a fantasy owner, it's just easier to know what to expect from certain players. For instance, Marques Colston will get you 1,000-plus yards and seven-plus TDs. He’s done it in five-out-of-six NFL seasons. 

But most players aren’t that consistent. Whether it’s injuries or off-the-field issues, some players have multiple peaks and valleys in their statistical careers.

Here are five players whose 2012 output could vary the most.

Darren McFadden

McFadden is one of the most talented backs in the league, but he has yet to play a full season in his four-year NFL career. The Raiders, now Michael Bush-less, are hoping this is the year he can stay on the field.

In 2010, he played 13 games, gaining 1,157 yards on the ground and 507 through the air with 10 total TDs.

Not counting Week 7, where he had just two carries before exiting the game, his 2011 stats project out to a 16-game total of 1,627 rushing yards, 403 receiving yards and 13 TDs.

So the potential for McFadden to be a top-five back is there; he just hasn’t done it yet.

McFadden was (on average) the 23rd player off the board in fantasy drafts last year, and he gave that elite RB production for just six weeks. A Week 7 mid-foot sprain, later reported as a Lisfranc injury, kept McFadden out the remainder of the season. In the past, he’s had issues with turf toe as well.

Could this be the year "Run-DMC" breaks the status quo and suits up for 16 games?

Chris Johnson

Can Johnson ever get back to the level he was at in 2009 when he was the No. 1 overall fantasy scorer?

One thing is certain: He is much better than he showed last year while finishing as just the 16th-ranked RB.

Johnson started the season slow but picked up his production in the second half, finishing with 1,047 rushing yards, although totaling just four TDs.

The overall decline has been most directly tied to a drop in yards per carry. Johnson’s YPC average has fallen from a career-high 5.6 in 2009 to a career-low 4.0 in 2011. But over the last six games of 2011, he averaged 5.3 YPC, a huge improvement from his slow start.

Johnson also had double-digit TDs in each of his first three seasons before last season’s total of four.

So, Johnson seems to be trending back up, but can he be CJ2K again?

DeSean Jackson

Jackson is coming off his worst season since his rookie year. He had only four total TDs after posting eight in 2010 and 12 in 2009.

Still, Jackson has averaged over 1,000 receiving yards per year in his four-year NFL career.

Jackson’s main fantasy value comes from his big-play ability. He had just 15 catches of 20-plus yards in 2011 after having 21 in 2010 while averaging a league-best 22.5 yards per reception.

While Jackson can guarantee a Super Bowl win (in the next five years), there’s no guarantee that the big plays will be there for him this year, which makes Jackson’s fantasy production unpredictable.

Josh Freeman

Which Josh Freeman will show up in 2012: the 2010 version or last year’s less impressive, sometimes downright awful, version?

Expectations were high for Freeman coming into 2011, after the 2010 season in which he finished with 25 TDs and just six INTs. He was also the No. 7 fantasy QB and developed a reputation as a clutch performer, leading the Bucs to five fourth-quarter comebacks in 2010.

But 2011 was a different story, as both the Buccaneers and Freeman struggled. Tampa Bay went 4-12 and Freeman threw just 16 TDs with 22 INTs.

Freeman will just be 24 years old as he enters his fourth season, but he’ll have to cut down on the turnovers in 2012 to be a productive fantasy QB again (Freeman also has 16 fumbles in his three-year career).

Having a better receiving core led by Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams will help, but it will be up to Freeman to prove that 2011 was the anomaly, not 2010.  

Randy Moss

Moss is an unpredictable player, and his production, at least in the second-half of his career, has been more closely tied to his mental state than his physical state.

An unhappy Moss in Oakland in 2006 caught just 42 balls for 553 yards with three TDs.

Moss, who seemed to respect his coaches and QB in New England, caught 98 balls for 1,493 yards and 23 TDs in 2007. So, whether Moss is in the right frame of mind to play football in 2012, will be just as important as his remaining skill level.

It’s hard to say what Moss has left in the tank as well, but it was enough for former NFL QB and current 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh to want to sign him after a brief workout. 

I’d set the ceiling for Moss’ potential with the 49ers and Alex Smith to be a middle-of-the-road WR2, catching at most 70 balls. If he becomes the deep threat that the 49ers desire, he could put up some very respectable TD numbers. His career average is an exceptional 11 receiving TDs a season, but I think the 49ers (and fantasy owners) would be happy with seven or eight.

The floor, however, could be that he doesn’t even make the team, as his contract has zero guaranteed money.

Unpredictable—that’s Moss’ M.O.