2012 NBA Draft: Race for the Lottery

The end of the NBA regular season is nearing, and that means it is time to start talking ping-pong balls.  There are currently nine teams fighting to increase their chances at winning the 2012 NBA Draft Lottery. 

In this slideshow, I will detail how the bottom nine teams will end up in the standings and who you might see them selecting with the lottery pick they earned.

Golden State Warriors

Current Record: 22-33

Remaining Opponents: DAL, SAS, LAL, NOR, SAS, @DEN, @POR, @LAC, @DAL, @HOU, @MIN

Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage: 0.551

Key Injuries: Stephen Curry, Andrew Bogut

Since the trade of Monta Ellis to Milwaukee, the Warrior have gone 4-12, and I do not see them making any sort of run at the end of this season.  With one of the toughest remaining schedules, and Stephen Curry possibly being shelved for the year, the Warriors could easily lose almost all of their remaining games. 

They only play one game against a team below them in the standings and still have a stretch of three road games in three nights.  I think the combination of a tough schedule and key injuries will cause the Warriors to lose all but two of their remaining games.

I see no reason why Golden State would activate Stephen Curry in the last couple weeks of the season.  Not only could he re-injure himself, but the Warriors need to lose as many games as possible just to hold on to their lottery pick.  Their pick got shipped to Utah (top-seven protected in 2012) via New Jersey as part of the Deron Williams trade.

All is not lost, though.  With a high lottery pick and the return of Steph Curry and Andrew Bogut next year, this team could easily be competing for a playoff spot in the competitive Western Conference. 

The Warriors should target a wing player in the lottery that could play well on both ends of the floor, like Harrison Barnes or Jeremy Lamb.

Detroit Pistons

Current Record: 21-35

Remaining Opponents: MIL, CHI, CLE, MIN, TOR, PHI, @ORL, @CHA, @ATL, @IND

Remaining Opponents' Winning Percentage: 0.482

Key Injuries: None

Detroit has been playing much better basketball in their last 20 games since starting 11-25.  They have gone 10-10 since that start, with wins against teams like the Lakers, Magic, and Hawks.  For Detroit fans hoping for more ping-pong balls, this team will not be going in that direction.

Detroit has a much nicer schedule than the Warriors to close out this lockout-shortened season.  If they continue playing the way they have the last month, I could see them winning four or five of their remaining games to end up in the ninth spot in the lottery.

Greg Monroe has really progressed in his sophomore season, averaging close to a double-double.  It would be nice if they could pick a power forward, like Perry Jones III, to pair with Greg Monroe down low, creating a dangerous duo for years to come. 

They could also be in need of a wing player with Tayshaun Prince running out of years in the NBA.

New Jersey Nets

Current Record: 21-37

Remaining Opponents: PHI, BOS, MIA, NYK, PHI, @PHI, @MIL, @TOR

Remaining Opponents' Winning Percentage: 0.528

Key Injuries: Brook Lopez

New Jersey will win as many game as Deron Williams carries them to the rest of the way. 

The loss of a lottery pick in a trade for Gerald Wallace, which I still don't think is a good trade, gives them extra incentive to lose as many games as possible.  The Nets need the ping-pong balls to fall the right way on lottery night just to hold on to their pick, which is top-three protected.

Deron Williams has led this team to a 6-3 record in their last nine games and could easily lead them to three more victories in their final eight games.  Philadelphia has been playing awful basketball of late, making all three of those games winnable.  The finale against Toronto is also a winnable game.

If New Jersey is lucky and finds themselves in the top three, they would probably take Kidd-Gilchrist or Thomas Robinson. 

Obviously, they would select Anthony Davis if they somehow pulled off the No. 1 selection.  Look out for NBA conspiracy theories if this occurs.

Toronto Raptors

Current Record: 20-37

Remaining Opponents: PHI, BOS, ATL, NJN, @ATL, @MIA, @IND, @DET, @MIL

Remaining Opponents' Winning Percentage: 0.539

Key Injuries: Andrea Bargnani

Toronto plays their next six games against playoff teams.  I don't see them winning any of those games, especially without Bargnani, who might be out for the season. 

The Raptors will be in a competitive battle with the Cavs and Kings for the fourth spot in the lottery the rest of the season.

There isn't a single game I would pick the Raptors to win the rest of the way.  After losing to a Cleveland team last week that didn't have Kyrie Irving, Anderson Varejao, Anthony Parker, or Daniel Gibson, the Raptors look like a team primed for tanking. 

That being said, they will probably surprise me and win one or two of their remaining games because of their defense.

As bad as this season might end, the future looks brighter than some other lottery teams'.  In theory, they will have two lottery picks joining their team, with Jonas Valunciunas coming in after one year overseas. 

With this year's lottery pick I see them targeting a wing player, and Kidd-Gilchrist would be ideal.

Sacramento Kings

Current Record: 19-38

Remaining Opponents: POR, SAS, OKC, LAL, @DAL, @NOR, @OKC, @CHA, @OKC

Remaining Opponents' Winning Percentage: 0.552

Key Injuries: None

Sacramento has struggled to compete in the Western Conference all season, and with five of their remaining games against championship contenders, that won't change anytime soon. 

The frontcourt combination of J.J Hickson and Cousins never worked, and the Kings have been chasing the lottery ever since.

The Kings' offense will probably carry them to wins against the Hornets and Bobcats, but the rest of their opponents will just be too good.  By only winning two or three more games, Sacramento will lock up a high lottery pick and a good chance to improve their team.

This team needs a lot of help on the defensive end of the floor, and Andre Drummond could help provide that.  Tyreke Evans, Jimmer and Marcus Thornton have never been good defenders, and having a big like Drummond to protect the rim could go a long way.  They could use a wing player as well.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Current Record: 18-36

Remaining Opponents: CHA, IND, ORL, PHI, NYK, WAS, @IND, @WAS, @DET, @SAS, @MEM, @CHI

Remaining Opponents' Winning Percentage: 0.487

Key Injuries: Anderson Varejao, Kyrie Irving, Daniel Gibson

Cleveland has not looked good the last two weeks since a tough loss against Atlanta.  They are in the middle of the most grueling part of their schedule without ROY front-runner Kyrie Irving.  This team has been hit pretty hard by the injury bug as of late and have multiple D-League call-ups on their roster.

Their schedule seems easier than most of the teams behind them, but their talent level just isn't there right now.  It also doesn't help that a stretch of seven games in nine nights in lingering in their future.

They will be competitive against teams like Charlotte and Washington but probably won't win more than three games before the close of the season.  This is all assuming Irving and Varejao are rested the for the remainder of the season.

Despite the rough last two years, Cleveland is in a great position for the future.  They own eight first-rounders over the next four drafts, and as long as Chris Grant hits on half of those, this team will be contending in no time. 

As for this year's draft pick, Cleveland will be looking to add a wing player ,and Bradley Beal would look real good in wine and gold.

New Orleans Hornets

Current Record: 15-41

Remaining Opponents: LAL, SAC, UTH, MEM, HOU, @CHA, @MEM, @LAC, @GSW, @CHI

Remaining Opponents' Winning Percentage: 0.486

Key Injuries: Trevor Ariza, Jarret Jack, Eric Gordon

After trading Chris Paul to the Clippers, everyone knew this team would struggle.  The fact that Eric Gordon went down early with an injury did not help their cause.

If Eric Gordon is able to go the rest of the way, they could win a couple more games and give Hornet fans something to look forward to next year.

If I were the Hornets, I would shut down Gordon for the rest of the year and hope to resign a healthy version of him over the summer.  He is a restricted free agent, so NOLA will be able to match any offer sheet he accepts. 

With Gordon and Jack out of the lineup, New Orleans will easily hold on to the third worst record in the league.  They might even make a push to pass Washington for the second worst.

The future is not as bleak as this may suggest, though.  It could be a quick turnaround if they are able to resign Gordon and hit on each of their two 2012 lottery picks. 

New Orleans could use an upgrade at every position except for shooting guard.  A combination of Kidd-Gilchrist and Perry Jones III could make things exciting for Hornet fans again in a hurry.

Washington Wizards

Current Record: 12-44

Remaining Opponents: ORL, CLE, MIL, CHA, MIA, @CHA, @NYK, @CHI, @MIA, @CLE

Remaining Opponents' Winning Percentage: 0.474

Key Injuries: None

The Wizards looked like they had started figuring how to play with each other in early March, going on a nice 6-2 run with wins against some quality opponents.  Then the front office traded talented but difficult players JaVale McGee and Nick Young to the Nuggets and Clippers, respectively. The team hasn't played well since.

With a pair of games against Charlotte and Cleveland each, the Wizards have some winnable games down the stretch.  They are also far enough ahead of New Orleans that tanking isn't needed.  I see them winning three-to-four games and having the second most ping-pong ball combinations.

With John Wall as their only reliable starter going into next year, Washington needs to improve all over.  Nene is a good player if he could only stay healthy.  If they remain at the second pick after the lottery is set, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will be their selection.

Charlotte Bobcats

Current Record: 7-47

Remaining Opponents: WAS, DET, BOS, NOR, CHI, MEM, SAC, NYK, @CLE, @MIA, @WAS, @ORL

Remaining Opponents' Winning Percentage: 0.457

Key Injuries: None

Michael Jordan's tenure as owner of the Charlotte Bobcats has not gone well so far. 

With a fairly weak lottery last year, Charlotte selected Bismack Biyombo and Kemba Walker.  Neither of these players helped make a significant impact in the wins column during their rookie seasons.

I would give the Bobcats a 99-percent chance to end up with the worst record in the league this year.  Charlotte has not played well on either end of the floor, averaging a double-digit loss per game. 

They lack talent at every position, and it shows.  For this franchise to have a chance at starting their slow rise to relevancy they must end up with the No. 1 pick.

Anthony Davis is said to be the only for-sure prospect in this year's draft, and the Charlotte Bobcats need him in the worst way.  If the ping-pong balls do not fall their way, look for Charlotte to take the best player available regardless of position. 

Michael Jordan has a long way to go to become as good of an owner as he was a player, and a little luck never hurt anybody.

Final Standings and Mock Draft

Here is how I see the bottom nine teams ending up in the standings and who they should select in the 2012 NBA Draft.

Team	Record	Win PCT	Lottery Chances	Pick	School
Charlotte Bobcats	9-57	0.136	250	Anthony Davis, PF	Kentucky
Washington Wizards	15-51	0.227	199	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, G/F	Kentucky
New Orleans Hornets	17-49	0.258	156	Thomas Robinson, PF	Kansas
Cleveland Cavaliers	20-46	0.303	119	Bradley Beal, SG	Florida
Toronto Raptors	21-45	0.318	86	Harrison Barnes, SF	UNC
Sacramento Kings	22-44	0.333	63	Andre Drummond, C	UConn
Golden State Warriors*	23-43	0.348	43	Jeremy Lamb, SG	UConn
New Jersey Nets**	24-42	0.364	28	Tyler Zeller, PF/C	UNC
Detroit Pistons	25-41	0.379	17	Perry Jones III, PF	Baylor
New Orleans Hornets***	17-49	0.258	11	Damina Lillard, PG	Weber St.

*The Utah Jazz receive Golden State Warriors' 2012 first-round pick (top-seven protected) via New Jersey.

**The Portland Trailblazers receive New Jersey Nets' 2012 first-round pick (top-three protected).

***New Orleans received Minnesota Timberwolves' 2012 first-round pick (unprotected) via Clippers.