2012 NFL Draft 1st-Round Odds: St. Louis Rams

In the top five, we can map out possibilities with two main channels for all of the teams picking between three and five. At No. 6, the road gets a little rockier.

The widely held perception might be that the Rams take whomever is left out of RB Trent Richardson, CB Morris Claiborne and WR Justin Blackmon, but the reality is that it isn't that simple to gauge the outcome of the Rams holding the sixth pick.

Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State (33 percent)

Perhaps, I should make Blackmon more the clear-cut favorite because of the 'huge need at wide receiver, but Blackmon isn't worth a top-six pick, and he doesn't seem like the kind of receiver who Jeff Fisher would take with a premium pick.

Footballguys.com colleague Matt Waldman pointed out that Kenny Britt was the last wide receiver a Fisher team took in the first round, and his game was predicated on physical gifts. This is a tough call because I think my personal beliefs are not far off of Jeff Fisher's philosophical beliefs.

Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State (33 percent)

Cox is the most freakish athlete in the DT class, and his tape is better than any of the other first-round prospects to boot. Jeff Fisher enjoyed a dominant three-technique tackle in Tennessee when he had Albert Haynesworth, and Jason Jones wasn't bad either.

The hitch here is that Kendall Langford, a 3-4 DE in Miami, was signed to a four-year, $24 million deal with $12 million guaranteed. The Rams may not want to make such a large cumulative investment at the position, but Cox is certainly worth the No. 6 pick.

Trade Down (32 percent)

After obtaining an extra second and two future firsts to move from two to six, why stop there? Neither of Blackmon and Cox are absolutely essential, and the Rams are guaranteed one if they can scare the Dolphins into trading up to six to ensure the acquisition of Ryan Tannehill.

The Rams and Browns didn't consummate a deal for Robert Griffin III, but Jeff Fisher left the door open to another trade. Maybe the Browns could draft Trent Richardson at No. 4 and then trade back up from 22 to snag Tannehill.

Maybe a third team could trade up for a player other than Tannehill. Expect Fisher and GM Les Snead to exhaust all trade-down possibilities. I believe this is what the Rams want, but I only have it virtually equal to Blackmon and Cox because first-round trades are easier said than done.

Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU (1 percent)

If Ryan Tannehill goes before the Rams pick, that necessarily pushes either Morris Claiborne, Matt Kalil or Trent Richardson to the Rams pick. I have the Bucs close to 50-50 between Richardson and Claiborne with an edge to Richardson, so Claiborne gets the edge here.

Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama (0.9 percent)

Jeff Fisher was the guy who ran Eddie George into the ground. He would love to get his mitts on Richardson, but it would take Cleveland and Tampa both passing on him, which is unlikely.

Matt Kalil, OT, USC (0.1 percent)

There's an eensy-weensy chance that the Vikings get someone to trade up for Ryan Tannehill, and then, the Browns and Bucs both pass on Matt Kalil because left tackle is not a huge need for either team. Eensy...weensy.