San Jose Sharks: Team's Success or Failure Hinges on Patrick Marleau

On January 29, Todd McLellan sat behind the bench in Ottawa. In front of him sat Daniel Sedin, Steven Stamkos, Shea Weber and Scott Hartnell. This was not due to the Sharks making an insane flurry of trade—it was due to their first-half success.

McLellan joined John Tortorella as coaches of Team Alfredsson during the 59th NHL All-Star Game. The two coaches earned the job because each of their teams were atop their respective conferences in point percentage.

Two months later, Tortorella's New York Rangers remain on top of the Eastern Conference Standings. The road to the Stanley Cup Finals will go through them, and Tortorella will be a Jack Adams Award Finalist.

Meanwhile, McLellan's San Jose Sharks have not clinched so much as a playoff spot yet. Even if they do, they likely won't host a single playoff series. Without a couple of upsets, McLellan could be out of a job this summer.

During the first half of the season, San Jose went 27-14-6. With two games still remaining, their second half record is 14-15-4.

14-15-4 isn't all that terrible of a record, and within those 33 games are some winning stretches—the Sharks started the second half 4-3-0 and are currently in the midst of an 8-4-1 stretch. In between, however, the team went 2-8-3. Which is, coincidentally, a very telling line.

2-8-3.

No, I'm not repeating myself. That's Patrick Marleau's statline since the end of San Jose's nine-game road trip in February.

Over the last 19 games, Marleau has 2 goals, 8 assists, and a plus-three rating. While the plus-3 rating isn't a huge problem, the Sharks were expecting something more along the lines of Marleau's plus-15 rating during last year's second half. 

During the exact same 19 game stretch last season (game 62 through game 80), Marleau scored 15 goals, tallied 12 assists and was a plus-11.

While picking and choosing season segments can be misleading, looking at the final and most important quarter of a season minus a couple games (full disclosure: Marleau had two assists and a minus-1 rating during the final two games last season) is very valid. Winning games down the stretch in the NHL is more challenging than it is in any other sport due to the league's parity and the allure of the Stanley Cup.

And to win tight, hard-fought games in the NHL, a team needs to get production from their best players. This year, that was more true than it had been for a long time. Dany Heatley—the team's best sniper—was gone, and Martin Havlat was still out of the lineup. Even the healthy second-liners—Logan Couture and Ryane Clowe—combined for only 10 goals, nine assists and a minus-10 rating over those 19 games.

This meant that Marleau needed to step up. But whether Todd McLellan placed him with the dominant duo of Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski or the struggling tandem of Couture and Clowe, Marleau has slipped into the shadows on most nights.

Joe Thornton has been having no trouble finding goal scorers. He had 14 assists over those 19 games, eight of which have resulted in Joe Pavelski goals. In fact, the classic image of Thornton setting up Marleau in the slot has been supplanted by the image of Thornton finding Pavelski right in front of the net.

This isn't because Jumbo and Pavs have "more chemistry." It's because, quite frankly, Joe Pavelski is one or more of the following: Better, smarter, braver or hungrier than Patrick Marleau.

Maybe Marleau isn't getting open because he's not as skilled as Pavelski. Maybe he doesn't read the defense as well and can't anticipate when they'll open up as well as Joe. Maybe Marleau simply doesn't have the drive Pavelski has. But one thing is clear: Marleau's offensive invisibility is weighing down the entire Sharks franchise.

Joe Pavelski is a talented player, no doubt. But he does everything possible—and then some—to make the most of that talent. For Pavelski to score 31 goals like he has this season, he's had to take 265 shots (15th in the NHL), lead all Sharks forwards in ice time and take his 5-11, 195 lb. body to the front of the net time after time.

Marleau has put up almost as many goals (28) while essentially sleep walking through the season. If Pavelski at his best is only slightly better than Marleau at his worst, then how good is Marleau at his best?

Well, over the three seasons previous to this one, Patrick averaged 40 goals a year. He took 268 shots per year and buried 14.8 pct. of them. He scored almost one special teams goal (34 PPG, 11 SHG) for minute he spent in the penalty box (56). He scored 25 game-winners.

When Marleau plays like he did for about three years straight, he's one of hockey's absolute best wingers. He's one of the league's best skaters, most accurate shooters, most deadly breakaway threats, best puck-handlers, best off-the-puck offensive players, and hardest-to-deny scorers in crunch time.

When Marleau is playing like this, he's not only leading the Sharks to victories; he's the most noticeable player on the ice. Even fan who knew very little about hockey could turn on a Sharks game over the previous three seasons and say "that Marleau guy is amazing!"

In other words, Marleau has all the skill in the world. Pavelski is certainly not "better" than him, nor is any Shark forward not named Joe Thornton. Seeing as Marleau's put up nine goals in nine Conference Finals games over the last two seasons, lack of hunger is also not the issue. This is along with his 15 goals down the stretch last year and having more than a full season's worth of game winners in his career (89, including playoffs).

People love to play the "complacency" card when scrutinizing underachieving players. But the fact is that Patrick Marleau loves to score goals and win games. You must intrinsically have a burning passion to succeed to be as good and as clutch a hockey player as he's been. And with his team in danger of losing the Pacific Division race or even missing the playoffs entirely, Marleau certainly has not become "satisfied."

If Marleau has the skill and the hunger, what's the issue? A not-so-close evaluation of Marleau's game shows that he's currently lacking in one of two major departments: confidence or intelligence.

When Marleau is scoring goals, he's doing so by anticipating turnovers and jumping ahead of the play on the breakout. He's winning battles for loose pucks, moving them to an open teammate and sliding into scoring areas around the net or in the high slot. He's crashing the net, anticipating rebounds and looking for shots to redirect home.

All of these facets of his game come from his confidence—the confidence to take risks because you know you're good enough to make them pay off and go to the front of the net because you know you'll get rewarded. They also rely on his intelligence—the awareness and hockey I.Q. needed to think ahead, anticipate stretch passes, get open off the puck and position oneself around the crease.

For Patrick Marleau to start playing smart hockey again, his confidence must go up. The more faith he has in his game, the easier it will be for him to make aggressive and decisive plays. But in order to get his confidence up, Marleau needs to start scoring some goals, which is only really possible if he starts playing smarter hockey.

This presents quite a predicament, and probably best explains Marleau's untimely slump. That being said, a shot goes in for everyone eventually, and it could be a random lucky bounce that turns Marleau's season—and the fate of his team—around for the better. The easiest way to get a "lucky" goal is by getting into the dirty areas around the crease and by fighting until the whistle.

My apologies for making you sit through an entire article that essentially boils down to me shouting "crash the net," but the difference between Marleau heating up and Marleau staying cold may be the difference between a Stanley Cup bid and a first-round exit.