Washington Redskins: When "If" Turns to "When"

Humans are a product of their environment, and the emotional environment that children find themselves exposed to will shape their perception of trust, self-esteem and personal identity.

I grew up as fan of the Redskins, which means I worry a lot.

There is a deserved feeling of positivity amongst Redskins fans at the moment, with the sense that the Shanaplan is gaining momentum with the move up in the draft, along with the free agency acquisition of younger players with upside over older, "quick fix" solutions. The perennial cries of "offseason champions" held no merit this year, as the pieces added to the puzzle bore the hallmarks of Shanahan, not Snyder.

This doesn't mean that they are without risk, however. There was a lot made of the decision to trade away first-round picks for the next two years, and there is a lot riding on the new quarterback, whose presence on the field and in the locker room was deemed worthy of such a loss. Shanahan nears the halfway mark of his contract, and the expectation is higher this year than it has been at any point during his tenure in DC.

Relishing any opportunity to sabotage my own hope and optimism, I devoted some time to wallowing in my concerns for the coming season and ominously stabbed them into the keyboard...

Injuries and Protection

2011 was not kind to the Redskins—that much everyone can agree on. Poor quarterback performance took a lot of the blame, and Grossman and Beck were unable to carry the weight of Shanahan's words when he staked his reputation on them prior to the start of the season.

But injuries also played their part, with each week seemingly bringing new pain for the roster.

The risk of injury is built into the NFL, and its avoidance is often attributed to luck more than anything else—an injury can occur without warning or blame. A player's conditioning will undoubtedly play a part in protecting them from harm, but their teammates can also ensure that they make it through the game unscathed. The player who most obviously benefits from his teammates' protection is the quarterback.

Robert Griffin III—does anyone really think the Colts will draft anyone but Luck this year?—has had some time on the sideline through the course of his college career, with a torn ACL ending his 2009 season, as well as suffering a concussion after a big hit against Texas Tech in November of last year.

There is a misapprehension amongst people who haven't watched his game tapes that Griffin is a run-first quarterback, and these same people also point to his injuries as vulnerabilities as he prepares for his rookie season in the NFL.

If Griffin is to get injured in 2012, it won't be down to his running game, but the offensive line. Chris Chester doesn't look versatile enough to fit Shanahan's system, and Trent Williams suffered in one-on-one matchups—particularly against Jason Pierre-Paul in September.

It is absolutely crucial that Griffin is protected, and I fully expect Shanahan to use his good sense for the late end of the draft to address this need from the remaining picks this year. There is good value to be found with linemen in the lower rounds, but when this much has already been invested in a rookie quarterback, they will need to offer more than value.

Off-Field Incidents

Fred Davis has got a lot to prove this year. With the recent signings of Garcon and Morgan on the outside, Davis will provide a legitimate threat underneath, and will be anxious to build on his career-high stats over the first three-quarters of the 2011 season.

Newly-franchised, he simply cannot afford a repeat of the drug charges that ended his season last year. The franchise tag gives him a chance to prove that he is worthy of a long-term deal, as well as offering Shanahan more freedom over his situation should Davis lapse once more.

The same goes for Trent Williams. As mentioned in the previous slide, Griffin must be protected, and Williams will be covering his blind side as he shapes to throw. Quarterbacks need confidence in their offensive line, and if there are any concerns about Williams then this will be compromised. He has struggled to justify his draft position thus far, and the drug-related suspension could turn his career either way.

Regardless of the seriousness of the drugs involved, the fact is that both Williams and Davis let their team down when they failed at least three drug tests and were forced to sit out a quarter of the season—their first task will be to make it up to them with their on-field performance.

Expectation

The offseason has provided much hope for the coming year, with useful additions tempting many to predict a challenge for the NFC East and a playoff run. This is great, as it means that the fans are getting behind the team out of belief rather than obligation.

Obviously—being the one-man raincloud that I am—I can see problems with this, too.

I firmly believe that Shanahan moved up in the draft because he saw that Griffin would suit his offense, not to desperately grab himself an extra year's grace as the pressure mounts. He asked for five years to make the team work his way, and even though last year's team posted a worse record than in 2010, the signs were there that this was a team in ascendance.

The difference with last season was that no one expected them to mount a serious challenge, but this is Shanahan's third year, and his promising offseason decisions have changed "if" to "when."

When will close losses translate into victories?

When will Griffin start to repay the price that has been paid?

When will Kory Lichtensteiger make it through a full season?

Okay, the last one was slightly unfair, but the first two could easily determine the course of the entire year. A glance at the Eagles' "Dream Team" of last year shows what can happen under the burden of expectation. It is important to remember that the Redskins are still a franchise in transition, and it won't suddenly all be easy now that there is a potential star quarterback in place.

In the Balance

If you have made it this far then it will come as no surprise that I preach realism and patience going into the draft every year. As susceptible as we all are to fireworks and media frenzy, there is still a place in the NFL for humility and reasoned reflection.

The difference this year is that it is partially to quell the urge to create a slideshow named "Bold Predictions" in which a perfect season is envisaged, ending with RG3 winning Super Bowl MVP honours and setting rookie records every time he opens his eyes. Such is the power of hope, and it is something that Redskins fans have sorely lacked of late.

The roster may lack depth in the secondary, and the hype around Griffin has grown to such heights that he may never justify it, but if the pitfalls outlined earlier can be avoided then there will be a slight—but very noticable— swing in the balance of power within the NFC.

Is 9-7 too much to ask for?