Kansas vs. Kentucky: 2012 NCAA Basketball Championship Prediction

The Kansas Jayhawks (32-6) and Kentucky Wildcats (37-2) will close out the 2012 NCAA tournament when meeting in the championship game Monday night inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

Pinnacle Sports opened the top-ranked Wildcats as five-point favorites, but that number has settled in at six this afternoon after climbing as high as seven.

Let's take a closer look at this matchup featuring the Big 12 and Southeastern Conferences from a betting perspective.

Kentucky Wildcats 75, Kansas Jayhawks 65

Both teams were playing just their second game of the 2011-12 season on Nov. 15, but it's still significant to note that the Kentucky Wildcats claimed an impressive 75-65 win over the Kansas Jayhawks as 6.5-point neutral-court favorites.

The Madison Square Garden crowd on that Tuesday night will pale in comparison to the electricity that will be felt inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome for the rematch.

From a betting perspective, the Wildcats are just 5-6 against the spread (ATS) on a neutral floor this year, while the Jayhawks are 5-7 ATS in the same situation.

2008 National Championship Game

The battle on the sidelines between Kansas Jayhawks coach Bill Self and Kentucky front man John Calipari will receive plenty of attention leading up to the opening tip at 9:23 ET on CBS.

Self guided the Jayhawks to a 75-68 overtime win over the Memphis Tigers as two-point underdogs in the 2008 championship game, with the losing team side being coached by Calipari.

If the game is close down the stretch, it's quite possible that the youthful Wildcats may succumb to the pressure of the moment.

Calipari watched his Tigers miss critical free throws in the final seconds four years ago and may not be able to handle watching it again.

Kansas Jayhawks, Second-Half Spurt

The Kansas Jayhawks have outscored all five of their opponents in the tournament by an average of 8.4 points per game in the opening half.

Jayhawks head coach Bill Self will want to stress that a come-from-behind victory against Monday's opponent might be too much to overcome, as the Kentucky Wildcats are 31-0 when leading at the break this year.

Kansas and Kentucky both scored 28 points in the opening 20 minutes in their first meeting on Nov. 15, but the Wildcats won the game and second half by a 10-point margin.

Whoever leads at the half will most likely win this game.

Kentucky Wildcats Versus Big 12 Conference Opponents

The Kentucky Wildcats have put together an impressive 58-9 all-time mark against current members of the Big 12 Conference, including a 7-1 mark in NCAA tournament action.

Sports bettors will find that the Wildcats are 3-1 ATS in their last five opportunities versus Big 12 opponents.

Kentucky has dropped three of the last four games in this series, but has still managed to win 20 of 26 overall.

Kansas Jayhawks' Success as a No. 2 Seed

The Kansas Jayhawks improved to 18-4 as the No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament after capturing a 64-62 win over the Ohio State Buckeyes as three-point underdogs on Saturday night in the Final Four.

From a betting perspective, the underdog Jayhawks may find it hard to stay within the six-point spread, as No. 2 seeds are 1-5 ATS in their last six championship game appearances when covering their previous game.

The Kentucky Wildcats will look to move No. 1 seeds to 7-2 ATS when playing for the national title as a favorite.

Against-the-Spread Records

Let's just say that the oddsmakers spend a little more time developing the betting odds for games involving these two high-profile teams than almost everybody else in the country combined.

The Kansas Jayhawks have compiled a 19-17-1 ATS record this year, while the Kentucky Wildcats are 15-22-1 ATS through 38 games.

Sports bettors will need to find another angle to play in this championship affair.

Field-Goal Percentage Defense

Early action has definitely landed on the under in the early going inside sports books, as the opening total of 139 has dropped more than 2.5 points in most spots.

Kentucky leads the nation in allowing opponents to shoot just 37.4 percent from the field, while Kansas paced the Big 12 Conference in that category at 37.9 percent.

The first meeting of the year saw the two teams combine for 140 points, staying well below the closing total of 147.5.

All wagering value has vanished if you expected a low-scoring affair.

Kentucky Wildcats Freshman Class

Kentucky Wildcats head coach John Calipari takes a lot of heat for recruiting one-and-done types, but he's just a game away from winning his first national title.

The freshman class has managed to provide 54 percent of the team's offensive production this year while collecting 57 percent of its rebounds.

Center Anthony Davis is the leader of the pack, averaging team highs in points (14.4), rebounds (10.2) and blocks (4.6) per game.

Thomas Robinson, Kansas Jayhawks Forward

Thomas Robinson will need to play the game of his life in order to pull off the upset on Monday night.

The Kansas Jayhawks junior has managed to score 18 or more points in the last three games while grabbing a combined 32 rebounds over that span.

He was the only player in the Big 12 Conference to average a double-double this season, with 17.7 points and 11.7 rebounds.

Bovada sports book has established a number of 17.5 for his total points scored in the championship game.

I'm not sure he gets there, especially after being held to 11 in the first meeting.

Final Prediction

The Kentucky Wildcats demonstrated an ability to dominate their opponents in all five games of the tournament, which isn't the case with the Kansas Jayhawks.

Kansas is definitely battle tested after picking up wins over the likes of North Carolina and Ohio State in the last two rounds, but this is a different animal on Monday night.

Due to the handicapper line that I developed on Saturday night, I have no choice but to lay this number on the Wildcats and hope they don't falter at the free-throw line.

Pick: Kentucky Wildcats -6