2012 NFL Mock Draft: Predicting How Free Agency Affects Every Pick

The free-agency period has started to slow down, even though the big name still floats around in rumors with Peyton Manning.

Regardless, there are still a wide variety of deals that were made that changed the course of what teams may be wanting to do in the first round. A team like Chicago, for instance, was destined to take a wide receiver in the first round, but after trading for Brandon Marshall, that may not be necessary anymore.

Conversely, a team like Miami, who was originally the front-runner for both Manning and Matt Flynn now finds itself without the services of either. Could that affect their pick?

Going team by team in draft order and analyzing their signing relative to their needs could shed some serious light on what their war rooms are thinking on draft day.

1. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are going to try and get lightning to strike twice and select a first-round quarterback who will cultivate a Hall of Fame-type career in Indianapolis.

In order to help him do that, the new Colts front office scored big by convincing star receiver Reggie Wayne to stay and help transition the offense.

The Colts need to address every position in free agency, but putting pieces around Andrew Luck on offense is the key for free agency.

2. Washington Redskins (From St. Louis)

The Redskins mortgaged their draft future in order to secure the services of Robert Griffin III at quarterback. Therefore, it was no surprise that Shanahan and Snyder went full-throttle at offense in the early stages of free agency.

The 'Skins landed wide receivers Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan and were close to reeling in Eddie Royal as well. Another running back might be in the cards as well via free agency.

Washington is likely done making big splashes in free agency, but there is no question that its offense is much improved from last year.

3. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are a lock to take USC's Matt Kalil to bolster their offensive line, which makes the release of Steve Hutchinson a logical one in order to keep costs down on the offensive line. 

The Vikings have not made much noise in free agency yet, but the signing of TE John Carlson makes it seem like Vinsanthe Shiancoe is officially gone from Minnesota.

Solidifying the offensive line would make it seem like the Vikings should be looking for defense via free agency.

4. Cleveland Browns

The Browns have taken a defense first philosophy in free agency, upgrading significantly at several positions. This makes it seem like a safe bet that they will be drafting offense with the fourth-overall pick.

The team allowed Peyton Hillis to move on from their backfield, and that opens up room for Trent Richardson from Alabama to step in. 

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A majority of the money spent by Tampa Bay in free agency was to land arguably two of the best offensive players (not named Peyton Manning) on the market. The Bucs offense is ready to take off, but their defense still needs bolstering.

Look for Tampa to use the draft to pick the player who will take over for the fan favorite, Ronde Barber, at cornerback. It could legitimately use its first three picks on defense and not suffer on offense.

6. St. Louis (From Washington)

Jeff Fisher wasted no time trying to bolster his defense in St. Louis via free agency. He also landed a a stalwart on the offensive line to help fortify the protection of Sam Bradford.

Now that the market for wide receivers is relatively picked over, it makes almost certain that Justin Blackmon will be a Ram if he is still on the board when St. Louis goes on the clock.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville will have a bona fide quarterback competition this offseason as a result of it signing Chad Henne. Whether Gabbert retains his spot or not, adding Laurent Robinson is an upgrade at wide receiver for whoever is taking snaps.

The smart decision for the Jaguars now would be to bolster the offensive line either inside or outside with players like Riley Reiff, Jonathan Martin or David DeCastro.

8. Miami Dolphins

The biggest news about the Miami Dolphins in free agency is who they didn't land. With the decision by Peyton Manning to not land in Miami, along with Matt Flynn's signing in Seattle, the Dolphins are 0-for-2 on potential franchise quarterbacks.

There is rumor of Alex Smith joining the Fins, but in the likely event that does not happen, the Dolphins could surprise everyone and reach way down for a player like Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. 

9. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are an explosive offense as they are constructed currently and likely don't need another influx of first-round talent to keep growing.

The defense, on the other hand, needs more help that, to date, hasn't come through free agency. The likeliest scenario is still that Carolina rolls the dice on a defensive lineman in the first round, but the choice is a tough one.

10. Buffalo Bills

The Bills' inking of Mario Williams was one of the most dogged, unrelenting pursuits of a free agent in recent memory. That signing alone could add wins to their team in 2012 and solidify the defense that improved drastically in 2011.

With so much focus put on Williams, the Bills haven't added any other free agents, and therefore, could still go a number of different ways in the first round.

Drafting an offensive lineman to protect the offense makes sense, but so does taking another intimidating pass-rusher to torment opposing AFC East quarterbacks. 

11. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs defense looked like a pillar of strength down the stretch last season and made the offense's inability to score on a regular basis a real Achilles heel for the team.

Kansas City has gone offense crazy in free agency and beefed up its running game and outside of its offensive line.

It seems likely that the best interior lineman still on the board will help the Chiefs finish their offensive re-tooling.

12. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks just nabbed the second biggest quarterback, buzz-wise, on the market with the addition of Matt Flynn. Additions on the defensive side of the ball also make Seattle an intriguing team this offseason. 

The Seahawks may also go with offensive line to help protect the investment that they have now made in Flynn, but they could look to add a weapon for Flynn on the outside at wide receiver.

13. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have been quiet in free agency, mainly just renegotiating with tackle Levi Brown on a more cap-friendly contract. It makes the direction of their first-round draft pick an interesting one, with a few different options.

The wise move for Arizona would be to add some defense and help slow down the growing offensive threats arising in the NFC West. After all, the division could boast names like Bradford, Flynn and Manning at quarterback before April.

14. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have gone out and addressed several needs in free agency already this year, mainly on defense. Brandon Carr is the premier cornerback that the Cowboys needed, but even with his addition, the Dallas secondary needs more help.

It might be too early to take a safety, but there will still be impact cornerbacks on the board who could be great compliments to Carr in Dallas.

15. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles made a nice get with keeping Evan Mathis on the interior of their offensive line, but the annual problem for Philadelphia is in the middle of its defense at linebacker.

Philly hasn't addressed that need yet in free agency, but there are a few first-round potential names that could fit the bill for Philadelphia. 

16. New York Jets

Other than bringing back kicker Nick Folk, the Jets have been quiet in the free-agent market in 2012. This doesn't point to a sure fire first position to identify in the first round, but their head coach might tip the hand a little bit.

Rex Ryan's calling card will always be defense, and there are some great outside linebackers and defensive ends that project to be here when the Jets pick. A surprise pick might be a running back, but the safer bet is that they go defense.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (From Oakland Raiders)

The Bengals have made some small splashes in their defensive backfield this free-agency period, so it would seem that they are set at that position for the most part.

One position that hasn't been addressed and is vacant due to the assumed departure of Cedric Benson at running back. There are names that Cincy likes here in Chris Polk or Lamar Miller,  but it could also go defensive front line due to the departure of Frostee Rucker.

18. San Diego Chargers

The Chargers tried to replace some of the production that they lost from Vincent Jackson in the signings of Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal. They also added pieces on defense in Jarret Johnson and Atari Bigby.

There are still needs for this Chargers team, and losing a player like Jackson is a huge problem for their offense. It may not be out of the question to add a big wide receiver in the first round, but defensive ends/outside linebackers could be in play here as well.

19. Chicago Bears

Chicago addressed two huge needs on offense by signing a poised veteran to back up Jay Cutler in Jason Campbell, and then gave him a huge weapon in the receiving game by trading for Brandon Marshall.

Prior to the trade, it seemed likely that the Bears would be looking at a wide receiver, and with some big-time talent out there, they still might. Another idea might be a tight end in Coby Fleener, who is moving up some people's boards. Still, the monsters of the midway can always use defense, which is deep in this draft.

20. Tennessee Titans

Do they have Peyton Manning or not? Either way, it might not matter for the Titans, who have only added veteran Steve Hutchinson to their offensive line in free agency thus far.

Tennessee hasn't addressed a need for pass-rushing help in free agency, and there aren't many names left on the list who can fit that need. A name like Melvin Ingram could work well for Tennessee here.

21. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have a rare opportunity to double-dip in the first round, and assuming they go running back with their first pick, in addition to the defense they have added in free agency, they have options here.

An interior offensive lineman could still be available in Cordy Glenn, but there could also be nice depth at interior defensive lineman here as well, which could help Cincinnati.

22. Cleveland Browns (From Atlanta Falcons)

The Cleveland Browns have invested on defense in the free-agent market, likely so they can invest on offense with their first two picks in the draft come April. 

If Ryan Tannehill isn't reached for earlier in the draft, he could be a possibility here, as well as the playmaker Kendall Wright from Baylor at wide receiver. 

23. Detroit Lions

The big deal by the Lions was locking up their All-Universe wide receiver, Calvin Johnson, for the next seven years. This is most definitely money well spent, and beyond that, the Lions have not moved much in free agency beyond potentially working deals to keep current roster players in town.

The Lions offense is on the rise, but their defensive secondary needs help slowing down the opposition if the team gets locked up in a shootout. Look for the Lions to take the best cornerback on the board when their number is called.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers

There hasn't been a peep from the Steelers in free agency this offseason to date. Apart from making some tough decisions to release well-respected veteran players, the Steelers may not be making a huge splash this year.

They have an aging defense that is in need of replenishing  so it would make sense to take a linebacker or defensive lineman. However, the injuries at offensive line are always plentiful in Steel Town, so depth there could make sense as well.

25. Denver Broncos

Here is another team that will make or break their offseason plans by the addition of Peyton Manning or not, but during the waiting period, the team has added only safety Mike Adams to their roster.

Denver has also reached an agreement to keep linebacker Joe Mays, but that may not close the door for Denver looking at a linebacker for a couple of reasons. First, Joe Mays is not a long-term answer despite his three-year agreement. Second, the players drafted last year have not developed very quickly, and finally, veteran DJ Williams could be suspended for the first six games of the season.

Still, the vocal majority in Denver perennially wants to roll the dice on a defensive lineman in the first round, and they may get their wish this year.

26. Houston Texans

The Texans knew they weren't going to be able to keep some of their key free agents, like Mario Williams and Jason Allen, but they seemed to be OK with it. Keeping underrated center Chris Myers was huge, as well as the extending of Arian Foster.

Houston may want to look at another weapon on the outside at wide receiver, or possibly a safety/cornerback could benefit the team here as well.

27. New England Patriots (From New Orleans)

The Patriots went out and reunited Josh McDaniels with Brandon Lloyd, as well as added Anthony Gonzalez to the passing attack for Tom Brady's arsenal.

That doesn't mean that Josh McDaniel won't convince his new (former) team to go after a tall, athletic receiver from Georgia Tech like he did during his days in Denver. Stephen Hill is still a name to watch here, but it seems more likely that the Patriots continue to solidify their secondary in the first round.

28. Green Bay Packers

The Packers moved quickly to lock up Jermichael Finley before he hit the open market, and since then, they have not done a lot more except lose starting center Scott Wells.

It seemed likely that the Packers were going to need to beef up their offensive line in the draft, and they may look at this part of the first round as the best time to do it with the premium on defensive players going before them. 

29. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens were dealt a tough blow by losing both Jarrett Johnson on defense and Ben Grubbs on the offensive line. This leaves serious holes to fill on both sides of the ball, but defense is king in Baltimore and should be where it looks with its first pick.

The loss of Johnson will hurt more than people think, so snatching a player like Whitney Mercilus could really help ease the pain for the Ravens.

30. San Francisco 49ers

Randy Moss. Mario Manningham. Looks like the Niners are trying to sweeten then deal for Peyton Manning, right?

Wrong. San Francisco had needed help at wide receiver for a long time, and after Josh Morgan moved on, it had an additional hole to fill for whoever its quarterback is going to be.

They could still be in the market for another wide receiver if a player has dropped this far, but the Niners are returning every starter on defense next season which makes offense the likely choice in Round 1.

31. New England Patriots

The Patriots saw just how much they miss the pass rush with their inability to pressure Eli Manning in the Super Bowl. They have taken steps in free agency to address that, but it is a position that can never be full enough on the roster.

Late in the first round could be a good time to take interior linemen from either side of the ball, or a specialty pass-rusher that needs a little extra help developing.

32. New York Giants

The Giants have some trouble brewing due to injury at the tight end position, but they moved to try and address it with the signing of Martellus Bennett from Dallas. The contract seemed like it wasn't the strongest vote of confidence, but could be a steal.

Either way, this could be the spot where Coby Fleener makes his mark on the first round, or it could be a time when New York quietly adds another impact player on the defensive front.