2012 NFL Draft: 6 Bold Predictions for the First Round

With the drama of Peyton Manning searching for a new team and Mario Williams' blockbuster deal with the Buffalo Bills, no scene in the NFL has been hotter than free agency.

But championship teams aren't built by being the highest bidder for services. It comes through the draft, and nowhere are the stakes higher for success than in the first round.

And with every writer posting first-round mock drafts, the reports and websites start leveling off with a semi-universal consensus of who will be picked where and by whom.

But the draft never turns out as people expect.

Sure, some selections go just like everyone thought they would, but who expected the Ravens to default on their pick after a miscommunication with the Bears last year?

With that in mind, here are six predictions that defy conventional wisdom and should throw a M. Night Shyamalan-style twist into this year's draft.

Miami Dolphins Draft Ryan Tannehill, but Not in the Top 10

Even if the Dolphins could land Peyton Manning (which seems highly unlikely at this point in the game), Miami needs a new quarterback waiting in the wings. And regardless of the success Matt Moore had last year, he's not it.

So, Miami needs to make a move on a quarterback, but they're not about to waste the eighth pick overall by reaching for someone who hasn't done enough to belong in the top 10.

Ryan Tannehill brings a lot to the table except experience, so he should really have a year to develop in the NFL before being handed the reins to a team.

He can do that next year behind Moore. But not if he's drafted with the Dolphins first pick.

General manager Jeff Ireland knows he dodged a bullet when Miami fired Tony Sparano and not him; if he doesn't, then he should. And since you don't keep your job as a team GM by whiffing on a quarterback high in the first round, Ireland will have the Dolphins look for Tannehill later on.

That means trading back into the first round.

Miami can't afford to wait for the Browns to get their shot at the top of the second round, so they'll part with next year's first to get who they'll hope is finally the answer to Dan Marino's retirement.

New England Patriots Will Trade out of the First Round...Again

Fortunately for the Dolphins, there's always someone ready and waiting to parlay their late first-round pick into a second now and first later.

His name is Bill Belichick.

So this isn't really much of a "bold prediction" as it is common sense. Regardless of their previous year's performance, the Patriots are always building for the future, and stockpiling future picks allows New England the flexibility to get the players it wants right where its value puts them.

The boldness in this call comes from the trade itself. Miami knows this year will still be a transition; they've traded Brandon Marshall and lack a viable starting quarterback.

So, they'll hedge their bets on this coming season and trade their first-round pick in 2014 instead. Two years should be plenty of time for Ryan Tannehill to get comfortable in the system and perform his sophomore year in the league.

And the Patriots won't mind, since they can always trade Miami's second-round pick for a first next year. That's how Belichick does things, and how he keeps New England flush with talent and winning games.

Trent Richardson Drops out of the Top 10, Possibly Further

Trent Richardson stands as one of the most hyped non-quarterbacks in the league. A solid runner and certain to step in as an instant starter, predictions place Richardson securely among the draft's top ten selections.

But teams don't need a premier running back to win the Super Bowl anymore, and it will show as Richardson drops into the latter half of the first round.

With pass-first teams like New Orleans, Green Bay, New England and Indianapolis as the most recent Super Bowl attendees, it's apparent that pass-blockers, receivers and quarterbacks hold much more value than a running back regardless of their ability.

Even New York with their run offense took a back seat last year to Eli Manning and the Giants' stout defense.

That means Richardson will likely take the biggest hit of any draft projection this year. The Cleveland Browns could be Richardson's landing spot to upgrade their offense, but selecting him at the 22nd pick is more feasible than taking him at fourth overall.

Jacksonville Jaguars Trade Up for Justin Blackmon

Regardless of who quarterbacks for the Jacksonville Jaguars—Blaine Gabbert, Tim Tebow or Mickey Mouse—they desperately need someone to throw to.

Now, if the Browns had traded up for Robert Griffin III, Jacksonville would have little choice but to trade down or reach for a player with the seventh overall pick.

But that didn't happen, and the top candidate for Justin Blackmon now sits only one slot above the Jaguars.

It's not that the Rams weren't compensated for potentially missing out on this year's top receiver. But St. Louis' gain is also their loss. The Jaguars will find a more-than-willing partner in the Buccaneers, who can trade down two slots and still get Morris Claiborne to bolster their defense.

And the Jaguars will finally start building a passing game to take pressure off Maurice Jones-Drew, who has to be tired of carrying the team on his shoulders.

Only Three Quarterbacks Will Go in the First Round

Over the last few drafts, quarterbacks keep popping up higher and higher in the draft than where people originally expected them. Last year, four quarterbacks went in the Top 12 picks, and six in the Top 40.

And while Cam Newton and Andy Dalton immediately impacted their teams, Jake Locker and Colin Kaepernick can't feel good about their chances of starting anytime soon while one owner is wooing Peyton Manning and the other is finalizing details for a three-year contract with Alex Smith.

Last year's draft has its own quarterback stretch in Tim Tebow. Despite my personal fanaticism towards Tebow, the Broncos drafted him far too early for where his development as a passer stood out of college.

But with the glut of quarterbacks to come out in recent years, that trend should turn around. Few teams are in desperate need for a starting quarterback and will therefore be less likely to reach for one in the first round.

Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are locks for the top two picks, but after that, only Ryan Tannehill really warrants first-round consideration.

With my prediction that Miami trades back into the first round for Tannehill, expect lower rated talents like Brandon Weeden (who I expect to go in the second round to Cleveland) to wait at least a day before someone calls them on draft weekend.

Dont'a Hightower Drops out of the First Round Entirely

One prospect regularly projected in the first round is Alabama's Dont'a Hightower.

A mainstay in the Crimson Tide defense, Hightower supplanted Rolando McClain as their starting middle linebacker following his selection in the first round by the Oakland Raiders in 2010.

But Hightower won't continue taking McClain's place this year, at least not as a first-round draft pick. Hightower doesn't possess McClain's instincts, and McClain has yet to truly live up to his draft slot at eighth overall two years ago.

Plus, with the stronger emphasis on nickel formations and stopping the passing game, Hightower's skills in run defense will hold less value than in previous years.

Finally, if a team feels they need an inside linebacker in the first round, Luke Kuechly is the more attractive prospect to put the final touch on Hightower's descent out of the first round.