Big Ten Tournament 2012: Buckeyes and Spartans Are Sleepers for No.1 Seed

Two of the top seeds in the NCAA tournament are locked down, but Ohio State and Michigan State have an outside shot to grab one of the other two.

Provided one of these two teams wins the Big Ten tournament, they will be in striking distance.

Nobody is going to knock Kentucky and Syracuse out of a top seed, but Missouri and North Carolina's hold is not nearly as tight.

If Missouri loses to Baylor in the Big 12 final, they still have a good shot at gaining it, but is it crazy to argue that Michigan State or Ohio State could be in the picture?

Not in my opinion.

Missouri would have a 29-5 record, this is impressive, but their strength of schedule (SOS) is 109th in the nation. Compound that with the fact that they lost twice to an unranked Kansas State during the regular season and they aren't a lock.

The Tigers also have the lowest RPI (15) of any team in the running for a top seed.

Losing to Baylor could leave the door cracked open for Ohio State or Michigan State to creep in.

Ohio State's SOS is 15th in the nation and its RPI is seventh. If the Buckeyes win the Big Ten tournament, they will have a 28-6 record, with the regular-season Big Ten title (via overall record tie-breaker) and the tournament championship under their belt.

There is a strong case to be made that their resume is stronger than Missouri's in this scenario.

It's a similar situation for the Spartans. They have the nation's toughest SOS and an RPI of five. They finished in a three-way tie for the regular-season Big Ten title, but the Bucks had a better overall record.

If they win the conference tournament, they will that distinction on their resume. It will be especially big if they defeat Ohio State in the title game.

They would have a 27-7 record overall and a strong case for a top seed as well.

As for North Carolina and Duke, the Big Ten hopefuls need a bit more help if they are to upend them. They would likely need for Carolina to lose to North Carolina State and Duke to fall to Florida State to have a shot.

Both teams have SOS and RPI in the top seven in the country, and if they advance to a conference tournament final, whoever wins will gain a top seed.

Even without that, the Tar Heels defeated the Spartans head to head in the regular season, so that also makes it difficult.

The Missouri scenario is far more plausible from a numbers and geographic standpoint. All three teams are in the Midwest, so it makes perfect sense that they would battle for a top seed in the same region.

My prediction is Ohio State will win the Big Ten tournament but that Missouri will defeat Baylor in the Big 12 title game as well.

It will be interesting to see what the committee decides in that scenario.