NCAA Tournament: Bubble Watch Part V 3/5

Just six days separate us from selection Sunday, aka Christmas for College Basketball fans.

We will finally find out what 68 teams the committee selects to play in the big dance, where they will all end up, and who their opponents will be.

The bubble is enclosing now as teams make one final push to try to bolster their résumé before Sunday. So what teams are in and out? Let's look at this week's Bubble Watch.

Conference Leaders/Champions

Four teams have already punched their tickets to the NCAA Tournament, but for the rest we will retain our system of the team with the best record in each conference getting their auto bid. Or, if a conference already has begun their conference tournament, we will use the highest remaining seed.

Stony Brook (America East)

Temple (A-10)

North Carolina (ACC)

Belmont (A-SUN)*

Kansas (Big 12)

Syracuse (Big East)

Montana (Big Sky)

UNC-Asheville (Big South)*

Ohio State (Big Ten)

Long Beach State (Big West)

Drexel (CAA)

Memphis (C-USA)

Valparaiso (Horizon)

Harvard (Ivy)

Loyola (MD) (MAAC)

Akron (MAC)

Savannah State (MEAC)

Creighton (MVC)*

New Mexico (MWC)

LIU-Brooklyn (NEC)

Murray State (OVC)*

Washington (Pac 12)

Bucknell (Patriot)

Kentucky (SEC)

Davidson (Southern)

Texas-Arlington (Southland)

Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)

Oral Roberts (Summit)

Denver (Sun Belt)

St. Mary's (WCC)

Nevada (WAC)

Teams in Good Shape

Here's the list of teams who, while not winning their conference, should be in good shape on selection Sunday.

Duke (ACC)

Florida State (ACC)

Virginia (ACC)

Marquette (Big East)

Georgetown (Big East)

Louisville (Big East)

Notre Dame (Big East)

Cincinnati (Big East)

Michigan State (Big Ten)

Michigan (Big Ten)

Indiana (Big Ten)

Wisconsin (Big Ten)

Purdue (Big Ten)

Missouri (Big 12)

Baylor (Big 12)

Kansas State (Big 12)

Iowa State (Big 12)

Florida (SEC)

Vanderbilt (SEC)

Alabama (SEC)

New Mexico (MWC)

UNLV (MWC)

Saint Louis (A-10)

Wichita State (MVC)

Gonzaga (WCC)

Southern Mississippi (SEC)

If you don't feel like counting (and not blame if you don't) that's 26 teams. Although Saint Louis, So. Miss, Memphis, New Mexico, and Cincinnati shouldn't feel completely safe (see Colorado last year), they are more likely than not in good enough shape regardless of the outcome of their conference tournament games.

So, 26 at large teams already in, and 31 conference leaders/winners adds up to 57 teams already in the field, which means there are only 11 spots remaining for bubble teams to snatch up.

Xavier 19-11 (10-6)

RPI: 53

SOS: 46

The Musketeers are about as bubble as a team get with under a week to go before fate is determined. 

Xavier's number are okay, but certainly won't jump out at anyone from the committee. The question may very well be how much does the committee value early season wins over Purdue, Vanderbilt, and Cincinnati? This team is a much different team since that day (known as the post brawl Xavier team), and is a mediocre 10-6 in the Atlantic 10.

Right now it's a tossup. I have them in, but they can easily be passed if they fail to impress in the A-10 tourney.  

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: On the fringe 

Dayton 19-11 (9-7)

RPI: 74

SOS: 63

Dayton's bubble was nearly burst last week when they fell to Richmond, dropping them to just 8-7 in the Atlantic 10. However, it is still conceivable they can make it if they make a spirited run to the Atlantic 10-tournament championship game.

The wins (surprisingly) are actually there for Dayton. Temple. St. Louis, Ole Miss, Xavier, and Alabama can all be considered quality wins.

However, that 9-7 record is a huge no-no coming out of the A-10 and more likely than not, it will be too much for them to overcome.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: In trouble 

St. Joseph's 19-12 (9-7)

RPI: 56

SOS: 41

If St. Joe's win over Temple puts them back in position to make a bubble run, then their loss to St. Bonaventure in double OT, dropped them back down.

It was an impressive late season run to get them back in contention for a tournament spot, but much like Dayton, there are simply too many losses on St. Joe's schedule.

While the Creighton and Drexel wins are nice, it would take a run to the conference title game, and some favor from the committee for the Hawks to score an at-large this season.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: In trouble 

Miami (FL) 18-11 (9-7)

RPI: 51

SOS: 37

Miami's loss to NC State last week did two things. It gave the Wolfpack bubble hope once again, and put a huge dent in the tournament hopes of the Hurricanes this year.

Miami has two very good wins in conference, over Duke (in Cameron) and Florida State (without Reggie Johnson), but right now they're in tough shape.

Miami needs a win over Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament opening round and another win over Florida State in the tournament quarters. 

It's possible they can score a berth without that win, but they would be playing with fire.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: Fading 

North Carolina State 20-11 (9-7)

RPI: 64

SOS: 26

NC State appeared to fall off the bubble map when they lost four-straight games in late February. However, after two-straight wins, including one over fellow bubble team Miami, the Wolfpack are back in the mix, if only barely.

NC State gets Boston College in the ACC tournament-opening round. Assuming they win that game, they will get an opportunity with a quarterfinal game against Virginia, and then a possible semifinal matchup with North Carolina to prove their worth.

If they can make it to the tournament championship game, it may be very hard to leave Mark Gottfried's squad out of the big dance, win or lose. 

In right now: No

Bottom Line: On the rise, but still on the outside looking in.

Texas 19-12 (9-9)

RPI: 51

SOS: 22

The Longhorns missed out, once again, on an opportunity to pick up a signature win when they fell to Kansas at home on Saturday. 

That drops them to 9-9 in the Big 12, with a manageable, but not great, RPI and a good SOS. Still, Texas is relying heavily on a December win over Temple and wins over Iowa State and Kansas State to be enough.

It might not be.

The Longhorns get Iowa State in the Big 12 quarterfinals. If they win that game, they're probably in. If they don't, Rick Barnes and company will be sweating it out come Sunday.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: On the fringe 

Connecticut 18-12 (8-10)

RPI: 33

SOS: 3

Assuming the Huskies knock out DePaul in the opening round of the Big East tournament, they would face a huge bubble matchup in the 2nd round of the Big East against West Virginia.

Can UConn still make it with a loss in that game? Probably. The 8-10 record is overshadowed by the great SOS number. 

UConn avoided disaster and beat Pitt at home to close out the regular season. Whether they deserve it or not, as long as they beat DePaul, UConn will most likely have a chance to defend their title. 

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: In decent shape, but work to do.

South Florida 19-12 (12-6)

RPI: 46

SOS: 25

South Florida missed a chance to gain a double bye in the Big East when they lost at home to West Virginia on Saturday. The win would have probably got the Bulls in no matter what.

After all, can the committee ignore a 13-5 Big East record?

Now though, USF has earned only the six seed in the Big East tournament and must face either Rutgers or Villanova in the Big East second round. That game will be a must win.

A loss there would more than likely knock South Florida out of the tournament. If they win, they will have a chance to move into the semis against Notre Dame.  

However, if South Florida can't beat the Fighting Irish, the committee will have to determine if their conference record will make up for a 1-9 record against the RPI top 50. 

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: Steady 

West Virginia 19-12 (9-9)

RPI: 44

SOS: 13

It was a big win for Bob Huggins club when they went to South Florida over the weekend and knocked off the Bulls at home. 

That win kept West Virginia at .500 in the Big East, which could be huge. Considering West Virginia's lack of real quality wins, especially in non-conference games.

As it stands now, the Mountaineers should be fine thanks mostly to that gaudy SOS number.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: On the rise

Seton Hall 19-11 (8-10)

RPI: 60

SOS: 49

The Pirates once great computer numbers are taking a steady decline after two head-scratching losses to Rutgers and DePaul, the latter of which they lost by 30. As it stands now, the Pirates are in deep trouble.

The wins are okay (VCU, St. Joe's, Dayton, West Virginia, UConn, and most notably Georgetown), but unlike the Huskies, I don't see their résumé being good enough to make up for an 8-10 record in the conference. 

If Seton Hall beats Providence in the first round of the Big East tournament (no guarantee considering how they are playing), then a win over Louisville is a must to keep them in the conversation.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: Fading 

Northwestern 18-12 (8-10)

RPI: 48

SOS: 18

The Wildcats win over Iowa on the road on senior night might go unnoticed by the committee, but it won't from me. That win was huge for a Northwestern team who still had to be reeling from heartbreaking home losses to Michigan and Ohio State.

Beating Iowa at least keeps them in the mix. Surviving Minnesota in the opening round of the Big Ten-tournament goes without saying. If they do that, they'll get another chance against Michigan in the Quarters.

Do they need to win that game to get in? Maybe—but without it, they can't feel any kind of safety.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: On the fringe 

VCU 27-6 (15-3)

RPI: 49

SOS: 173

VCU certainly looked like a top 68 team when they jumped out to a 32-4 lead over George Mason in the CAA semi finals on Saturday.

If they can't beat Drexel in the title game, will they get in anyway?

Unfortunately for the Rams, while they may very well pass the eye test, their résumé is still lacking. The wins just aren't there. The best one is South Florida and then GMU. 

Still, this team put up a solid run through to the conference tournament final and losing to Drexel would not be a bad loss in any way.

The CAA feels like a two bid league to me, and we saw how well the committee treated VCU's suspect resume last season. VCU clearly will want to take care of business to ensure things, but if they don't, their case will be a very interesting one come Sunday.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: On the rise 

Central Florida 21-9 (10-6)

RPI: 64

SOS: 94

Give the Knights some credit for the 10-6 mark in a tough Conference USA, but in terms of an at-large profile, they are still on the outside looking in by a fairly large margin.

The only way UCF can seemingly get back into it would be a run to the C-USA title game, which would almost assuredly include a win over Memphis.

Central Florida lost to Memphis by 30 just a week ago, so logic says that would be a tough game to win for Marcus Jordan and company. But if they want into the big dance, it's something they simply need to do.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: In trouble 

Marshall 18-12 (9-7)

RPI: 67

SOS: 30

Although the Thundering Herd's at-large chances may be slim, I'm at least willing to include them on this list after their impressive victory over Southern Mississippi over the weekend.

The early-season road victory over Cincinnati keeps looking better, and Marshall beat Iona and Belmont to go along with their win over USM.

Still, like many teams, there may simply be too many numbers in the "L" column to warrant a bid. 9-7 in C-USA is just simply not likely to be good enough.

Like UCF, Marshall's only chance is to make it to the C-USA title game (oddly enough they are the number six seed) which would mean upsets over Tulane and Southern Miss again. Even then, it seems bleak.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: On the rise, but still on the outside looking in

Iona 25-7 (15-3)

RPI: 41

SOS: 144

Unfortunately for MAAC player of the year Scott Machado and the Gaels, after a loss in the conference semi finals to Fairfield, their fate is no longer in their hands.

Iona has been the class of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference all season long, and really could pull off a win or two in the NCAA Tournament if they get there.

The problem is the best wins they can fall back on are St. Joe's and Nevada.

The RPI is nice, and yes there is a chance, but it's unlikely that the committee will take this conference champion with three losses in the MAAC over a .500 team in a major conference.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: In trouble 

Colorado State 19-10 (8-6)

RPI: 21

SOS: 7

All of the sudden, Colorado State's profile is looking nearly untouchable amongst bubble teams. 

The Rams have been helped all year long by their unexplainably high RPI and SOS numbers, but now that they have beat New Mexico and UNLV, it adds some meat to a résumé that was severely lacking it just a few weeks ago.

A loss in the conference quarters against TCU would not be advisable considering there are still holes in CSU's profile (see 5-9 road record). But even with a loss, I can't envision Colorado State not getting a bid come selection Sunday.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: In decent shape 

California 23-8 (13-5)

RPI: 37

SOS: 91

Cal was going to get an at large birth easily before they inexplicably lost back-to-back games against Colorado and Stanford to close out the Pac 12 regular season, and the conference regular season title to Washington in the process.

Now Cal faces a potential rematch with the Cardinal in the Pac 12 quarterfinals on Thursday. Lose that game, and things are not looking so bright in Berkley.

Cal's best win out of conference is Weber State (ouch). They lost to both Oregon State and Washington State in conference (double ouch).

But not all is lost, as those 13 wins in a major conference should get them in... maybe.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: Declining 

Oregon 22-8 (13-5)

RPI: 50

SOS: 88

The Ducks are doing all they can do in Pac 12 play to push themselves inside the bubble. Oregon is winners of four-straight games heading into the Pac 12 Tournament, and many people (including yours truly) would probably pick them to win the wide open auto bid coming out of the Pac 12 this year.

If they can't get it, though, will they get in? Oregon is 0-5 against the RPI top 50 (bad), 13-5 in the Pac 12 (good) and has an SOS in the 80's (bad).

Oregon's best wins are Washington and Arizona, which is simply not going to get it done. But if the Ducks can add a win over Cal in the Pac 12 semis, it's certainly possible the committee could call Oregon's name for a first-four matchup in Dayton next week.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: On the rise 

Arizona 21-10 (12-6)

RPI: 76

SOS: 115 

All that can go wrong, will go wrong. At least that's what Arizona's Sean Miller would probably tell you if you asked him in a week why the Wildcats are not participating in the 2012 NCAA Tournament.

Arizona lost on the road to rival Arizona State to close out the regular season the Pac 12, the absolute last thing they could afford after probably being fairly comfortably in the tournament before hand. 

I still don't think Arizona is as far out as many others do, but simply put, the Wildcats must get to the conference championship, including a win over Washington, to have any realistic chance. 

In right now: No

Bottom Line: In trouble 

Mississippi State 21-10 (8-8)

RPI: 65

SOS: 67

The Bulldogs bounced back nicely from their five-game losing streak with a two straight wins to close out the SEC schedule, including a twenty-point drubbing of Arkansas.

Mississippi State probably has done enough to get in thanks to their slew of at least moderately impressive early season victories.

Still, winning a game or two in the SEC tournament certainly wouldn't hurt.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: Steady

Tennessee 18-13 (10-6)

RPI: 75

SOS: 33

Suddenly, Tennessee has gone from being nowhere close to being one of the teams right on the edge of the bubble with under a week to go before the big dance.

Tennessee somehow managed to jump all the way to the No. 2 seed behind Kentucky in the SEC tournament after winning eight out of their last nine games heading into the conference tournament.

Out of conference, there really is nothing other than missed opportunities (Memphis, Duke) and bad losses (Austin Peay, College of Charleston), other than one nice victory over UConn.  

In conference though, the Volunteers have beaten Florida twice and Vanderbilt. Not half bad, and better than most bubble teams can claim.

If Tennessee gets into the conference semis they could square up against Vanderbilt. Win that game, and then lose to Kentucky in the SEC title game, which no one can be blamed for, and Tennessee may be going dancing after all.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: Surging 

Ole Miss 18-12 (8-8)

RPI: 58

SOS: 39

For some reason, the Ole Miss Rebels are getting little to no attention in most bubble circles this year. However, when you look at their résumé they are not far off.

The numbers aren't half bad, with a top 40 SOS to boot, and an 8-8 mark in the SEC, which is at the very least respectable.

Ole Miss scheduled heavy in non-conference games with against Marquette, Miami, Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee State, and Dayton. However, the bad news for Andy Kennedy's team is that they were just 1-4 in those games. 

In the league, the best win is the one they just picked up last week over Alabama. Make no mistake, they're on the outside looking in, but if they make a dent in the SEC tournament, then Ole Miss is at least in the conversation.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: On the rise, but still on the outside looking in. 

Middle Tennessee State 25-6 (14-2)

RPI: 59

SOS: 184

It would be foolish not to include the Sun Belt regular season champions on this list, but in reality their chances of getting an at-large bid are slim to none.

The Blue Raiders lost in the quarterfinals of the Sun Belt conference tournament to Arkansas State after being the class of the conference during the regular season, which was assuredly a devastating loss that will likely leave them out of the NCAA tournament this season.

The best they can muster are wins over UCLA, Belmont, and Ole Miss, which is not going to get it done, and they're probably even behind Iona in terms of mid-majors.

It was a great season for MTSU, but unfortunately for them, it will have to continue in the NIT this year.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: In trouble 

Brigham Young 25-8 (12-4)

RPI: 45

SOS: 96

BYU came close to entering in the "teams in good shape" category, but their 1-6 record versus the RPI top 50, keeps them on the bubble for the moment.

The Cougars do have a win over Gonzaga and Oregon, plus 11 road wins, which is fantastic. It still is up in the air a little bit, but BYU  should feel more confident than the majority of their fellow bubble teams on Sunday evening.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: Steady 

Last Ten In/ First Ten out

For the record here is my last ten in and first ten out with six days to go before the selections are made.

Last Ten In

1. VCU

2. Xavier

3. Northwestern

4. Texas

5. South Florida

6. Mississippi State

7. California

8. Connecticut

9. Colorado State

10. BYU

First Ten Out

1. Seton Hall

2. Oregon

3. Tennessee

4. Miami (FL)

5. Arizona

6. Iona

7. North Carolina State

8. Ole Miss

9. Middle Tennessee State

10. St. Joseph's