2012 NFL Draft: Kellen Moore and 14 Other Players Unworthy of Their Hype
The NFL draft process is a roller-coaster ride of ups and downs. Events like the Senior Bowl and combine usually set people into a frenzy generating a ton of hype. An impressive 40-yard dash time could really improve a prospect's stock, especially in the eye of the media.
This media hype is the main cause for a lot of prospects becoming overvalued and unworthy of some projections. The upcoming slides breakdown some players who don't quite live up to the hype they're receiving.
Mohamed Sanu, Wide Receiver, Rutgers
1 of 15Highest Projection: Late First Round
Best Value: Mid-Second Round
Rutgers' Mohamed Sanu has the potential to develop into a very effective NFL wide receiver. However, his lack of elite speed limits his big-play ability. Sanu ran a disappointing 4.67 40 time, showing he will likely struggle to separate in the NFL. This performance should halt the discussion of Sanu coming off the board in the first round.
Sanu's size, leaping ability and body control makes it tough for smaller defensive backs to defend him. He's a reliable target who does a good job picking up yards after the catch. These skills are what makes Sanu a solid second-round prospect.
The difference between a first- and second-round wide receiver prospect is usually the speed factor. Teams are looking for someone that can provide explosive plays and have the potential to develop into a No.1 receiver. Sanu's lack of top-end speed limits his potential to develop into that go-to receiver.
Nick Perry, Defensive End/Linebacker, USC
2 of 15Highest Projection: Top 15
Best Value: Early Second Round
NFL defenses have become obsessed with players who are capable of generating pressure on the quarterback. This obsession results in many defensive players coming off the board much earlier than expected. USC's Nick Perry will be one of those overdrafted prospects.
Perry's performance at the combine turned a lot of heads, as he showed off his top-level athleticism. His 40 time, 10-yard split and three-cone drill performance were all among the tops for the defensive line prospects. The combination of his good workout numbers and his position gives Perry a great shot of coming off the board in the Top 15.
However, Perry's performance on the field doesn't match his workout numbers. He struggled to consistently beat the offensive linemen to the edge and create pressure. Selecting Perry early in the first round will be a major risk.
Bruce Irvin, Defensive End/Linebacker, West Virginia
3 of 15Highest Projection: Late First Round
Best Value: Early Third Round
West Virginia's Bruce Irvin boasts the explosiveness needed to create pressure off the edge. During his college career, he showed the ability to fire off the ball and consistently work his way into the backfield. However, Irvin doesn't possesses the bulk or strength to be an all-around player.
He's a prospect without a true position, and may have to begin his career as a situational player. First-round prospects are expected to make an immediate impact and fill more than a part-time role. Selecting Irvin before the third round brings the risk of a wasted pick.
Michael Brockers, Defensive Tackle, LSU
4 of 15Highest Projection: Top 10
Best Value: Late First Round
As soon as LSU's Michael Brockers declared for the NFL draft he became one of the more interesting prospects available. His combination of size, athleticism and flashes of dominance have some believing he could be the next great defensive tackle. However, Brockers' value is based too much on upside for him to be a Top 10 pick.
Brockers' numbers at the combine actually show that he might not have the type of athleticism some projected. He ranked near the bottom in each of the workouts, with the most concerning being his 19 reps on the bench press and 5.36 40 time.
These poor workout numbers combined with his inconsistent play on the field don't make him worthy of an early first-round pick. He would bring more value as a late first-rounder.
Brock Osweiler, Quarterback, Arizona State
5 of 15Highest Projection: Second Round
Best Value: Fifth Round
There are a lot of evaluators who look at the measurables and fall in love with a prospect. Arizona State's Brock Osweiler has had that type of effect on a lot of draft analysts. At 6'7" and 242 pounds, Osweiler possesses elite size and bulk for the position. He also brings a strong throwing and good quickness to the table. However, his on-the-field production doesn't equal the type of hype he is receiving from the draft community.
Osweiler's career at Arizona State was plagued with inconsistency and poor decisions. A lot of this is due to inexperience, but he isn't going to get a lot of playing time early in his NFL career. Osweiler also struggles to deliver the ball with accuracy, which comes from his inconsistent throwing technique. He releases the ball from the side of his body and struggles to square up to his target.
Overall, Osweiler is too much of a project to warrant a pick prior to the fifth round.
Chris Polk, Running Back, Washington
6 of 15Highest Projection: Late First Round
Best Value: Third Round
First, the running back position's value really pushes many prospects down the draft. This is especially true for backs who don't really possesses a ton of explosiveness. Washington's Chris Polk is a bigger back who doesn't bring much explosiveness to the table.
Watching Polk play he doesn't do a great job running behind his pads. His up-and-down running style limits his ability to pick up yards after the catch. So, Polk is a bigger back who doesn't run with great power or have breakaway speed. This doesn't describe a running back worthy of a first-round pick.
Rueben Randle, Wide Receiver, LSU
7 of 15Highest Projection: Late First Round
Best Value: Late Second Round
LSU's Rueben Randle is one of the prospects who have seen their stock rise since the end of the season. Most evaluators love his combination of size and quickness. However, only looking at his athleticism results in overlooking his limited production.
Randle's college career featured a lot of underwhelming performances and issues catching the football. Some will point to LSU's problems at quarterback as the reason for his limited production. However, there were still some missed opportunities throughout his career.
His combine performance also brought up some questions about his ability to stretch the field. A 4.55 40 time doesn't exactly show someone capable of outpacing defensive backs.
Randle still brings a ton of upside, but shouldn't be considered a first-round prospect.
Dwayne Allen, Tight End, Clemson
8 of 15Highest Projection: Late First Round
Best Value: Late Second Round
I've been a major supporter of Clemson's Dwayne Allen. His play on the field showed a player capable of attacking the seam and making plays in the passing game. However, his 4.89 40 time really has me questioning his big-play potential. Allen doesn't have the in-line blocking skills needed to hold his value after that disastrous performance.
The combine should only be used as part of the evaluation process, but something like this really brings questions. Allen will have an opportunity at his pro day to post a better time, but right now he looks more like a third round prospect.
In my pre-combine mock draft, Allen came off the board at the of Round 1 to the New York Giants.
Zebrie Sanders, Offensive Tackle, Florida State
9 of 15Highest Projection: Second Round
Best Value: Fourth Round
Offensive line prospects capable of playing left tackle receive a ton of attention come draft season. Florida State's Zebrie Sanders seen his stock rise throughout the season because he showed flashes of the ability to play left tackle in the NFL. However, after his Senior Bowl and combine appearances those abilities are in question.
During the Senior Bowl, Sanders struggled to anchor after contact and hold up against the bull rush. His limited bulk and strength will limit his ability to protect the quarterback. His athleticism is considered his best attribute, but the combine results paint a different picture.
Sanders tested near the bottom of the pack in both the three-cone drill and 20-yard shuttle. Both of these tests are a good measurement of a player's athleticism. In order to play left tackle at the next level, a prospect must be able to hold up against both speed and power rushers.
Vontaze Burfict, Linebacker, Arizona State
10 of 15Highest Projection: Late First Round
Best Value: Third Round
I'll admit that Arizona State's Vontaze Burfict held a spot in my first mock draft for a long time. Watching him play you can see the upside he possesses. However, the draft process hasn't been kind and Burfict is dropping down draft boards.
Prior to the combine, the biggest issue surrounding Burfict was his immaturity and questionable character. However, after posting a disappointing 5.09 40 time there's legitimate concerns about his speed and explosiveness.
The combination of questionable character and athleticism should remove Burfict from the first-round discussion.
Ryan Tannehill, Quarterback, Texas A&M
11 of 15Highest Projection: First Round
Best Value: Third Round
There are mock drafts out there that have Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill projected as a first-round prospect. However, his on-the-field production and technique make him more of a third-round prospect. Tannehill's college career was filled with poor decisions and costly mistakes. His inconsistency is a major reason why Texas A&M had a disappointing season.
This past season was only his second at quarterback, so he still needs some time to develop. However, it's this lack of experience that makes him a better fit in the middle of the draft. A lot of those projecting him to come off the board early are basing their evaluations on potential. There's been plenty of strong-armed quarterbacks who never developed.
Tannehill has upside but not enough to warrant a first-round pick.
Janoris Jenkins, Cornerback, North Alabama
12 of 15Highest Projection: Top 15
Best Value: Late First Round
North Alabama's Janoris Jenkins boasts Top 10 talent but also brings plenty of character concerns. His off-the-field issues are a major cause for concern. Teams willing to take a risk on him in the first round could eventually get burned. The decision-makers need to rely on the interview process to determine Jenkins' risk-reward ratio.
Because of his off-the-field issues and talent level, Jenkins continues to receive a ton of media attention. These issues also result in a very fluid draft stock. Where he lands in the draft will depend on what teams are willing to do their homework.
Selecting such a risky player early in the first round could turn into a major mistake.
Ronnell Lewis, Linebacker, Oklahoma
13 of 15Highest Projection: Late First Round
Best Value: Mid-Second Round
Oklahoma's Ronnell Lewis boasts the type of quickness and athleticism needed to create pressure on the quarterback. These abilities have drawn the attention of evaluators, with some projecting him as a first-round prospect. However, his consistency and limited pass-rush moves hurt his chances to make an immediate impact.
Too often, players are elevated because of potential and the position they play. Lewis' pass-rush potential is what drives his draft stock. Potential is important but, the production also needs to be present to earn a first-round grade.
Lewis is a solid second-round prospect but a reach for teams considering him in the first.
Zach Brown, Linebacker, North Carolina
14 of 15Highest Projection: Mid-First Round
Best Value: Early Second Round
North Carolina's Zach Brown is a terrific athletic who boasts defensive back-type speed. At the combine, he recorded the second fastest 40 time at 4.50 seconds. However, speed and athleticism play only part in what makes a players successful. Brown's struggles diagnosing plays and reading keys will limit his ability to get to the football.
Any team selecting Brown is doing so based on his potential. He's going to need the right scheme and good coaching to develop into a consistent playmaker. The uncertainty of his production makes him a risky pick early in the first round.
Kellen Moore, Quarterback, Boise State
15 of 15Highest Projection: Fourth Round
Best Value: Seventh Round or Undrafted
Boise State's Kellen Moore won a lot of games during his college career, but that doesn't guarantee success at the next level. Moore's draft stock is one of the more interesting stories of this year's draft. Some are willing to overlook his physical limitations because of his ability to win games. However, the fact remains he doesn't have tools needed to succeed in the NFL.
Moore lacks size and arm strength to make the necessary throws at the next level. His throwing motion also limits how quickly he can get the ball out of his hands. Moore will struggle to consistently connect on plays deep down the field and to the sideline.
The biggest issue he faces is the athleticism of the defensive backs. They'll be able to easily break on his passes and either create a turnover or a pass breakup.
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