NHL Playoffs: Assessing the Chances of the Eastern Conference Bubble Teams

It is perhaps because I had my heart shattered in 1996 when the Jets left Winnipeg that I can no longer invest emotionally in the cause of a team I support without doing my due diligence, determining the actual statistical probabilities of that team's success and using various metrics to decide just how much of my peace of mind I'm willing to wager.

With that in mind, let us examine the playoff picture in the NHL's Eastern Conference, focusing on the four teams that, according to playoffstatus.com, have a better than 30-percent probability of making the playoffs without having a probability over 70 percent. These probabilities are determined assuming that each team's remaining games are won or lost based on relative team strengths.

The four teams in this bubble are the Florida Panthers (68-percent chance of making the playoffs), the Toronto Maple Leafs (52 percent), the Washington Capitals (48 percent) and the Winnipeg Jets (35 percent)

Home/Away

All four teams play significantly better at home than they do on the road. This is not to be expected, necessarily, as there are five teams in the Eastern Conference alone with road records as good or better than their records at home. But it is safe to assume that, in the case of our four teams, home games are advantageous.

Jets fans are currently frothing at the mouth as they sit tied for eighth with the Maple Leafs with 64 points while staring down six straight home games over the next two weeks. However, all four of our bubble teams have exactly the same number of home games remaining in their schedules (12) while the Jets have played more games overall (61) than the other three, with both the Caps and Leafs sitting at 59 games and the Panthers sitting at just 58. So the bad news, if you're Winnipeg, is that each team you're fighting with has games at hand. The good news is that those games will all be played on the road.

Strength of Schedule

A slight edge belongs to the Florida Panthers if you take into consideration the records of their remaining opponents, whose aggregate winning percentage is 47, weaker than that of the Jets (49 percent) and both the Caps and Leafs (50 percent). These differences may seem negligible, but with only two points separating the four teams, it's safe to say that even the slightest advantage could mean the difference between the first round and the first tee.

For example, the Leafs (again, according to playoffstatus.com) have an 80-percent chance of making the playoffs if they win 12 of their next 23 games. If they only win 11, their playoff probability dwindles to 46 percent. Two percentage points in strength of schedule with 23 games to play could be all the difference in determining that one game that puts them into the postseason.

Important Games 

Strength of schedule doesn't tell the whole story when you take into account the varying urgency of each team's upcoming opponent. This, of course, is harder to quantify as some weaker teams may be more dangerous the less they have to lose, just as some of the better teams may be less dangerous the more they have to lose.

The Capitals, for example, play their final game of the season against the Rangers, who currently sit first in the conference, nine points above the second-place Bruins. If the Rangers maintain their current trajectory, that last game against Washington will likely mean nothing to them, while possibly being make or break for the Capitals. This would increase the chance that their (possible) MVP candidate goaltender, Henrik Lundqvist, is given the night off. In fact, it's fair to assume a high likelihood that any Ranger nursing even the slightest injury is rested for at least their last regular season game, giving the Capitals a significant advantage. 

So for fun, let's first look at how many games our four bubble teams play against each other. The Panthers and Caps both have 5 of the so-called four point games, while the Jets have four and the Leafs have three. 

Then, let's add games against the teams above them in the East who are jockeying for position, excluding the Rangers who, as mentioned, are comfortably in first place (leaving Boston, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Ottawa). This is where it starts to get interesting. The Maple Leafs have eight games in this category, while the Caps have six, the Panthers have five, and the Jets only three.  

Finally, lets throw in games against the Western Conference teams who are fighting for playoff entry and/or home ice advantage, which is basically the top nine. Winnipeg has four games remaining against Western teams with something to play for, while the Leafs and Caps have two and the Panthers only one.

If you add up the three subsets mentioned above, you get an idea of how many important games (as defined here) each bubble team we've analyzed has coming up. Once again the difference is marginal, with both the Panthers and Jets claiming 11 such games, while the Caps and Leafs will play 13. 

There is every reason to believe that two of the teams we've looked at will make the playoffs, while the other two will not. With every NHL team playing at least 20 more games, teams below them may still make a move while teams above them may still come crashing down.

But from just about every angle, it appears that the Panthers, Caps, Leafs and Jets are destined for a dogfight.

Looks like my heart might be hedging for a while.

And yes, I did watch Moneyball last night.