NHL Trade Speculation: Why Teams Don't Need Nash or a Deadline Splash

It's that time of year again.

A time when the hockey obsessed rejoice with unbridled expectant anticipation.

Call it a second Christmas, if you will. But, on Feb. 27, gifts don't come wrapped in shiny paper and a bow. Instead, they come parceled in their new team's sweater, offering the promise of ascending hockey's highest peak, a Stanley Cup championship.

That's right, it's the NHL trade deadline.

Unfortunately, deadline day is quite deceiving, duping NHL general managers and fans into the notion that wheeling and dealing for high profile talent, a late season savior, will undoubtedly produce major dividends.

After analyzing the NHL's trade deadline, which debuted during the 1979-80 season, it's clear that major deadline deals rarely produce a Stanley Cup. 

Chemistry is one of the biggest deterrents to immediate acquisition success. It's a difficult ask of any player, let alone a bona fide star, to immediately gel with new linemates and produce in a meaningful way.

Then, there are the contractual issues that convolute the process. The biggest fish in this year's pond is Columbus Blue Jackets captain Rick Nash, who commands a cumbersome $7.8M cap hit for any team that acquires his services.

Tough to foot that bill if you're unsure of the return on your investment.

But, there will always be teams with cap space willing to take the gamble, while the team on the other end of the phone is looking to get some compensation for a player before they walk away during free agency.

We'll have to wait and see who those parties are this season.

Given the economics of the new NHL, the movement of marquee names at the deadline is assuredly a newer phenomenon, but the track record speaks volumes. Here are a few recent examples of splash deals (like, belly flops) that left teams wanting: 

• 2010-11: Pittsburgh Penguins acquired (LW) James Neal and (D) Matt Niskanen from the Dallas Stars for (D) Alex Goligoski. With both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin injured last season, the pressure was on Neal to supplement an anemic offense, but he failed to do so.

  Neal averaged more than a half-a-point per game before the deal, after, he struggled mightily. The 23-year-old tallied just one goal and six points in the Penguins remaining 20 games, and only mustered a goal and an assist as the Penguins fell to the Lightning in seven games during the first round of the playoffs.

• 2007-08:The Dallas Stars acquired (C) Brad Richards and (G) Johan Holmqvist from the Tampa Bay Lightning for (LW) Jussi Jokinen, (C) Jeff Halpern, (G) Mike Smith and a 2009 fourth-round pick. Richards finished the regular season with Dallas averaging roughly a point per game, and posted similar numbers in the postseason.

  Unfortunately, the acquisition of Richards couldn't get Dallas over the hump, succumbing to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Detroit Red Wings in the Western Conference finals.

• 2007-08: Pittsburgh Penguins receive (RW) Marian Hossa and (RW) Pascal Dupuis from the Atlanta Thrashers for forwards (RW) Colby Armstrong, (C) Erik Christensen, (C) Angelo Esposito and a 2008 first-round draft pick (Daultan Leveille).

  Hossa produced for Pittsburgh in the final quarter of the season and ran roughshod in the playoffs, tallying 26 points in 20 games, but the Penguins could not overcome Detroit in the Stanley Cup Finals.

In reality, it's those Olympic-esque splashes (you know, the ones where a diver displaces very little water, if any) that make all the difference. Picking up a veteran, adding a third liner or acquiring a complimentary winger, those are the deals that payoff in the long run. During their cup years, Pittsburgh and Carolina made those types of moves and it paid off in spades:

• 2008-09: The Pittsburgh Penguins acquired (RW) Bill Guerin from the New York Islanders for a conditional 2009 draft pick. The former Islanders captain provided 12 points in the Penguins 17 remaining games, and 15 points in 24 playoff games, bringing the Steel City its first Stanley Cup since 1992.

  Indeed, it was Guerin's veteran leadership on a young, talented team that proved the impetus for a Cup victory.

• 2005-06: The Carolina Hurricanes acquired forward (LW) Mark Recchi from the Pittsburgh Penguins for (LW) Niklas Nordgren, (C) Krystofer Kolanos, and a second-round pick in 2007.

  Never heard of those guys? That's okay, few have. Carolina parted with very little to acquire Recchi's leadership and above average offensive production. As for the payoff, Raleigh was rocking as the Cup headed south for a second time in two years.

It's evident that depth moves are much more valuable at deadline time. So why make the splash?

Of course, it's inevitable that a team this year will take the bait. But, buyer beware, it's unlikely to yield the result you seek.

So, San Jose, Los Angeles, New York—you still want Nash?

You may want to think again.

**Special thanks and a tap of the stick to Casey DeMarco for his contribution to this piece.

Ryan O'Leary is a researcher and writer for Bleacher Report's Video Production Department with seven years experience in the sports industry. Ryan covered the 2010 Vancouver Olympic Hockey Tournament with CTV and the 2011 IIHF World Championships with the NBC Sports Channel. He was also a member of NBC's 2008 Olympic Coverage in Beijing. Ryan resides in Connecticut and supports the Pittsburgh Penguins, San Francisco Giants and San Francisco 49ers from afar. Ryan received his bachelor's degree in Broadcast Journalism from the University of Missouri and Master's of Sports Management from West Virginia University.