Roger Federer: Glaring Signs Fed-Ex Will Have a Disasterous 2012

So far, so good for Roger Federer at the 2012 Australian Open. He made quick work of Alexander Kudryavtsev in the first round and then advanced to the third round via a walkover when Andreas Beck withdrew from their second-round match with an injury.

If Federer keeps advancing at this rate, it wouldn't be at all surprising if he made it to at least the semifinals, which would be nothing new for him. Indeed, Federer has gone as far as the semis in eight consecutive Australian Opens.

Given the way things are going, there's nothing to be concerned about, right?

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Though Federer has made it to the third round at the Aussie Open, there's still some cause for concern.

A lot of cause for concern, in fact.

We can start with what we've seen from Federer most recently, a discussion that takes us to his first-round match against Kudryavtsev.

The final numbers indicate that Federer played very well, and he did. Kudryavtsev never was going to beat him, so Federer finishing him off in straight sets was really nothing more than a formality as soon as the match got under way.

However, it would be a stretch to say that Federer dominated Kudryavtsev. On the contrary, the Russian put up a strong fight in the first set, forcing Federer to ramp up his game to finish him off. Federer didn't exhaust himself, but he did have to work to beat Kudryavtsev.

This is all well and good when you look at Federer's performance without context, but he's at a point in his career where he must be compared to his competition at all times.

His competition, of course, would be world No. 1 Novak Djokovic and world No. 2 Rafael Nadal.

As was expected, Djokovic truly was dominant in the first round against Paolo Lorenzi, dropping two games in the first set and then shutting him out in the final two sets. Djokovic looked very much like the same player that was practically unbeatable in 2011, including at the Australian Open.

Nadal wasn't quite so dominant in his first match against Alex Kuznetsov, nor was he dominant against Tommy Haas in the second round. But at the same time, Nadal at least looks healthy, and we all know that a healthy Nadal can beat anybody at any time.

So while Federer is still clearly better than 99 percent of the players in the field, we haven't seen anything from him yet that suggests he's capable of beating Djokovic or Nadal. He's bound to run into one (or both) of them at the Open, and when he does it wouldn't be very wise to anticipate a victory.

Plus, let's not forget that Federer had to pull out of the Qatar Open in early January with back muscle spasms. He looked fine in the first round against Kudryavtsev, but we shouldn't take that as a guarantee that his back pain isn't going to flare up again.

In particular, you have to worry about how Federer's health will hold up if he finds himself in a marathon match. As he gets deeper and deeper into the tournament, the more likely it is he's going to find himself in one of those.

Keep in mind that these concerns are arising at the very first Grand Slam of the year. If Federer misses out on his 17th Grand Slam once again (and he will), his year will have gotten off to a very tough start. An injury in one tournament, and disappointment in the next.

Even if Federer manages to stay healthy, the pattern of disappointment is one that dates back to 2010. Federer fell short at each of the three Grand Slams following his win at the Australian Open, and he failed to win any Grand Slams in 2011.

This pattern is likely to persist in 2012, and it's actually a good bet that things will be even worse. The competition he's up against is still top-notch, and Federer will only be getting older as time goes by. He's already 30 now, and August will bring us to his 31st birthday. His fitness is legendary, but great fitness can only do so much against the wear and tear brought on by Father Time.

By regular standards, Federer will still end up having a good year. But by his own standards, it's not going to be fun.