Saints vs. 49ers: Predicting Stats, Stars and Score for Saturday's Game
The San Francisco 49ers host the New Orleans Saints on Saturday afternoon in a matchup between the league's top defense and top offense.
With the specter of last year's road Wild Card loss to the Seattle Seahawks still fresh on their minds, the Saints are hoping to leave San Francisco as the victor and with a spot in next week's NFC championship game.
But it's not going to be easy, with Saints quarterback Drew Brees likely to face pressure throughout the game and his receivers needing to be at the top of their games.
In the following slides, I detail which players are going to make the biggest impact in this game and predict the outcome of this highly compelling contest.
New Orleans Saints: Quarterback Drew Brees
1 of 5New Orleans Saints victories hinge on the success of their quarterback, Drew Brees, and in the regular season, he had very little trouble handling that pressure, leading his team to a 13-3 record.
It's going to be a harder go of things for the league's passing yardage leader today, when he faces a San Francisco 49ers defense that's unlike anything he's seen all season.
While Brees is averaging over 340 passing yards per game, the Niners defense has held opposing quarterbacks to 230.9 yards this season and have picked them off 23 times. They've also notched 42 sacks.
Though it's hard to imagine the explosive Brees being held down today, the fact that his team is on the road in chilly, blustery San Francisco against such a high-powered defense, I predict that he will be somewhat overwhelmed by all the pressure and have a down day.
Look for Brees to end the day around 260 passing yards with a pair of touchdowns and a pair of interceptions as a result.
New Orleans Saints: Running Back Darren Sproles
2 of 5With quarterback Drew Brees likely to be harassed throughout the game by the San Francisco 49ers defense, the Saints will have to look elsewhere to gain consistent yards: their run game.
The Saints are averaging 132.9 rushing yards per game and had 167 yards on the ground in last week's win over the Detroit Lions.
Though Pierre Thomas was the highest-producing running back in that game, with 66 yards and a score on eight carries, it was Darren Sproles who ultimately made the highest impact.
Sproles carried the ball 10 times, for 51 yards and two touchdowns and also caught four passes for 34 yards. His versatility, speed and elusiveness will be invaluable against a San Francisco team that's stingy when it comes to giving up rushing yards.
Sproles isn't a typical running back, which should make him the team's most productive rusher of the day.
While he may not get a touchdown today, the yards he puts up will be extremely useful. I see Sproles carrying 12 times for 60 to 70 yards and catching four passes for 40 more.
San Francisco 49ers: Defense
3 of 5The San Francisco 49ers defense is their team's best weapon in today's contest against the New Orleans Saints. They'll need to be on top of their collective games if they are to successfully stop Saints quarterback Drew Brees and the other members of their high-powered offense.
The Niners defense leads the league in forced turnovers, with 23 interceptions and 20 forced fumbles—with 15 recoveries—during the regular season. They've held opponents to just 53 rushing first downs as well, and they didn't give up a rushing touchdown until Week 16.
They'll have to put pressure on Brees while not allowing the Saints' receivers to get separation, and they'll need sacks and turnovers to change the game's momentum.
I see them succeeding in these efforts this week, picking Brees off twice, forcing a fumble and notching four sacks. It also wouldn't be surprising if one of those turnovers led to a defensive score for San Francisco this afternoon.
San Francisco 49ers: Quarterback Alex Smith
4 of 5While the San Francisco 49ers have been better known as a running team this year, they will need a significant contribution from quarterback Alex Smith in today's game against the New Orleans Saints to steer them to a win.
The Saints defense ranks 30th in passing yards allowed, giving up an average of 259.8 per game.
They allowed Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford to throw for 380 yards last week, and while Smith doesn't boast as big of an arm, he will still have ample opportunity to make big completions downfield against such soft coverage.
Smith had the best regular season of his career this year, completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 3,150 yards, 17 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He also ran with the ball 52 times for 179 yards and two scores.
Though Smith has averaged under 200 passing yards per game this year, look for him to throw for nearly 250 yards against the Saints' weak secondary today, notching two touchdowns and zero interceptions.
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers: Final Score Prediction
5 of 5The New Orleans Saints-San Francisco 49ers matchup won't likely settle the debate on whether defense wins championships in the modern, quarterback-centric NFL, but it should prove whether or not a team like the Niners can hold their own against the league's top offensive squad.
San Francisco was a 6-10 team in 2010 and haven't had a winning season since 2002, but they were able to turn things around in a short period of time thanks to the addition of head coach Jim Harbaugh and his ability to develop his team's strengths while minimizing or eliminating their weaknesses.
The Saints have been a powerhouse since winning the Super Bowl in 2009 and seemed to rarely make significant mistakes this season.
While it first appeared to be a foregone conclusion that the Saints and their offense could have their way with the Niners, or with any team, it's going to be a rough go of things for the team today.
The Saints are a good team, to be sure—in fact, they're one of the best in the league, and they made the playoffs for a reason. However, today I predict the Niners will win, playing a less-flawed game in which their defense makes all the difference.
Final Score: 49ers 28, Saints 20
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