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NFL Playoff Picks: Why the New England Patriots Keep Rolling All the Way to Indy

John RozumJun 7, 2018

Although the New England Patriots haven't won a playoff game since the 2007 AFC title over San Diego, this 2011-12 team has a different feel than their more recent postseason appearances.

That being said, let's break down each side of the ball for coach Bill Belichick's squad as to why New England will make another Super Bowl appearance.

Offense

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Obviously any time Tom Brady is under center, you know New England has a chance to win. Excluding the 2008 season that he missed due to injury, the only year that the Patriots have missed the playoffs with Brady starting through the season was 2002.

And comparing this season's team to their 2007, 2009 and 2010 ball clubs, New England has one major difference—Rob Gronkowski.

Having Wes Welker and the return of Deion Branch is great and all, but missing from their previous teams was a stud tight end. Even when New England won their Super Bowls, the tight ends weren't nearly as dangerous as Gronk has been in 2011.

The man has simply changed the way offenses work because it shows you can dominate without a deep-threat wide receiver. Instead, having a tight end—if not all defensive backs—who's faster and bigger than most and can beat any single coverage situation, well, the defense doesn't have a choice but to double-team him.

In turn, that opens up the rest of the field for guys like Welker, Branch, fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez and the rushing attack. New England may not look like it, but when it's needed their ground game can be very effective.

Especially inside the red-zone.

Defenses gear toward Gronkowski and Hernandez over the middle while Welker and Branch threaten the outside. That just opens up the running lane as there are no blitzing linebackers and if New England passes, Tom Brady has even more time to throw.

And because of that offensive weaponry, none of the remaining AFC playoff teams will be able to put an insane amount of pressure on Brady while pitting an offense that's capable of keeping pace. Which brings us to Belichick's defense.

Defense

Yes, New England is supremely weak against the pass, and it has affected the Patriots rush defense as well. In addition, they haven't had an overly impressive pass rush, however, it's their red-zone defense that steps up.

For as many yards that New England has allowed this season, they have only allowed an average of 21.4 points per game (rank No. 15). And when you have an offense that is capable of putting up 30- or 40-plus every week, allowing roughly 21 per game is just fine.

Thanks to Brady's brilliance once again, New England finished No. 1 in the AFC with a turnover differential of plus-17. They intercepted 23 passes (tied for No. 2 in the league) and also recovered 11 fumbles.

They're eerily similar to the Green Bay Packers defense as the Cheese also give up yards and cause turnovers. But since New England can step up when backed near its own goal line, it can be frustrating for any offense's confidence by not putting up a lot of points.

Luckily for New England, no AFC offense has nearly as much explosiveness as their own, and with an opportunistic defense New England has a major edge since they can win the turnover battle.

Denver's Tim Tebow has been prone to turnovers before; Baltimore's Joe Flacco has played poorly throughout his postseason career; and Houston's T.J. Yates is a third-string rookie without an overly impressive strong arm.

Belichick will attack any of the three with a blitz package that also accounts for stopping the run. So, although they give up yards, New England has a young secondary with potential, and we'll see them mature this postseason.

 Follow John Rozum on Twitter.

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