NFL Playoff Predictions: Why Home Field Advantage Is Key For Super Bowl Run
As the divisional round of the 2012 NFL Playoffs are upon us, last week's Wild Card Round was anything but wild, as all four home teams emerged from their matchup victorious.
This was a departure from recent history, as last season three of the four wild-card winners were road teams (with the NFC's sixth seed, the Green Bay Packers, going on to win the Super Bowl) and since the NFL went to eight divisions in 2002 the home team in the Wild Card Round has posted only a .575 winning percentage, winning 23 of 40 games over that span.
However, that percentage goes WAY up as the playoffs progress, with the home teams winning over 68 percent of games in the divisional round and conference championships, taking 30 of 44 contests over that same stretch.
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So, if the past decade is any indication, this year's playoffs may hold more true to form than any in recent memory, and we not have many "upsets" this go round in the National Football League.
It isn't just past performance that shows how important locking up home-field advantage can be in the playoffs, however, as some of this year's participants in the NFL's second season have been very different teams at home as opposed to on the road.
The top two seeds in each conference, for example (the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens in the AFC, and Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers in the NFC), went 30-2 in their home stadiums, but were much more vulnerable on the road, where they posted a 23-9 mark.
The Ravens are the poster boys for the benefits of "home cooking" in the NFL in 2011. While they were a perfect 8-0 in the friendly confines of MCT Bank Stadium, they were an average team record-wise outside Baltimore, losing four of eight road games.
The New Orleans Saints were also a much different squad outside the Superdome, as although they too finished 8-0 at home, they dropped three of eight contests outside New Orleans. After finishing as the third seed in the NFC they will travel to San Francisco to face a 49ers team that lost only one home contest this season and is undoubtedly pleased to avoid having to square off against Drew Brees and the prolific Saints offense indoors.
The only exception to this rule this season has been the New York Giants, who actually posted a better road record (5-3) than they did at MetLife Stadium (4-4), but it's hard to imagine that the G-Men are kicking up their heels at the prospects of traveling to Lambeau Field to attempt to become the first team to defeat the Packers there this season.
So what does this all mean?
It's the National Football League, and anything can happen in any given week, but the Giants, Saints, Houston Texans and Denver Broncos face a tall order in trying to buck the historical trend this week. It's possible that for only the second time since 1993 Super Bowl XLVI could feature the top seeds in each conference.
However, it's only happened twice in almost 20 years, so fans of the road teams still have room for hope. While history shows that the home squads win the vast majority of games as we advance deeper into the playoffs, it also shows that at some point an upset will be pulled that will shake things up a bit.
Which David will rise up and slay Goliath? Make your predictions below!

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