NFL Playoff Bracket: Ranking Most Likely Upsets in Divisional Round

The 2012 NFL playoffs have already seen one monumental upset, as Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos knocked the Pittsburgh Steelers out of the Wild Card Round on Sunday.

That won't be the last upset we see in these playoffs. In fact, we're bound to see at least one more in this weekend's Divisional Round.

The early spreads suggest otherwise, of course. Three of the four games carry spreads of greater than seven points, and the road team is favored in the other game. The oddsmakers have thus made it quite clear who they think the better teams are.

So which underdog is most likely to pull off an upset?

To answer that question, let's go ahead and rank them.

Note: all spreads according to Sportsbook.

4. Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-13.5)

Heading into Wild Card Weekend, the Steelers-Broncos game seemed like the most likely place to find an upset. Lo and behold, we got one.

Don't expect the Broncos to pull off the same stunt when they travel to New England to take on the Patriots on Saturday. The Patriots got to play the Broncos in Denver during the regular season and they killed them. It shouldn't be too hard for them to do the same to the Broncos in their own backyard.

The key concern for the Broncos will be shutting down Tom Brady and New England's offense, which is something they failed to do in their first meeting. The other concern will be Tim Tebow's ability to complete passes as consistently as he did against the Steelers.

Even if he does, victory is far from guaranteed. Outscoring a wounded Steelers offense is one thing; outscoring a perfectly healthy Patriots offense is another thing entirely.

To be exact, it's nigh impossible.

3. New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-8)

The Giants very nearly beat the Packers at MetLife Stadium back in early December. They did well to keep the game close, but in the end Aaron Rodgers was just too good.

The only way the Giants are winning this game is if their defensive line harasses Rodgers the same way it harassed Matt Ryan on Sunday. That would put the clamps on Green Bay's offense, leveling the playing field in a significant way.

The trouble is that the Giants are not going up against the Falcons, a team that has a tendency to crumble when the bright playoff lights are shining. They're going up against the reigning Super Bowl champs and the best team in the league during the regular season.

While this Giants team has shown incredible grit and determination to even get this far, we know that they are a team that is very limited in terms of what it can do. The Packers don't have to worry about such limits.

I'm willing to give the Giants a chance, but the Packers are a better team than they are. Plain and simple.

2. Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)

In their wild-card tilt against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Texans needed to prove that they are capable of advancing in the playoffs without the help of an experienced quarterback.

They did just that, and they did it in convincing fashion. Arian Foster provided plenty of offense, and Houston's defense took care of the rest.

If the Texans can get a similar performance from their defense against the Ravens, they stand a very good chance of advancing to the AFC Championship Game. As strong as the Ravens are, they are hardly invincible. They made that abundantly clear at times during the regular season.

Credit where credit is due, though—the Ravens play very well at home. For that matter, one of their victims this season was Houston. The Ravens gave the Texans a 29-14 beating way back in Week 6, when they still had Matt Schaub under center.

As such, the only way the Texans are winning this game is if the bad Ravens show up. The odds of that happening are somewhere between decent and good.

1. New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers

If there's one team in these playoffs that hasn't gotten its due as a serious Super Bowl contender, it's the 49ers.

The problem a lot of people have with the 49ers is that their offense is one-dimensional, meaning they will surely be doomed against Drew Brees and the high-flying Saints offense.

What people have to realize is that the 49ers do have the kind of defense that is capable of countering New Orleans' offense. The 49ers were one of the best defensive teams in the league during the regular season, and they got the better of some pretty good quarterbacks. Their ability to rush the passer and to create turnovers had a lot to do with that.

When the time comes, my intention is to pick the Saints to win this game. Just in case you're wondering.

But are the Saints a lock to win? No way.

Updated NFL Playoff Bracket

Divisional Round (Jan. 14 and 15)	Conference Championships	Super Bowl (Sunday, Feb. 5 at 6:30 p.m. ET)
Denver	AFC Championship Game (Sun, Jan. 22 at 3:00 p.m. ET)
New England	TBD
		TBD
Houston	TBD
Baltimore
	NFC Championship Game (Sunday, Jan. 22 at 6:30 p.m. ET)
New Orleans
San Francisco	TBD
		TBD
New York Giants	TBD
Green Bay