Forecasting Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray in 2012

Every tennis season brings with it new stories, new challenges and new adventures. This year, 2012 should prove no different.

Like almost anything in this world, big things happen at the very top, and the least significant at the bottom of the hierarchy. And 2011 left us with a very clear one—one, for the first time, led by a new tennis world No. 1, and a trio of eager—albeit somewhat subdued—rivals.

Looking back at the sort of epochal, grandiose narratives the first weeks of the last few tennis seasons had in store for us, one ought to be amazed at how differently events transpired over the ensuing twelve months.

In 2006, Roger Federer seemed almost vulnerable, off a five-set loss to Nalbandian. He would then compile his best year ever.

In 2007, Federer looked invincible, but was to face his most challenging and doubtful season. Likewise, in 2008, few could have conceived of his loss at the Australian Open—one short year after his most dominant performance there ever. Instead, he would lose in straights in the semifinal, and be dethroned from his top perch in the months to come.

Then, 2009 seemed to herald a new reign of dominance for Rafael Nadal, but ended only in a startling season of upsets and surprises, along with Federer's rejuvenation. Fortunes were mirrored for both in 2010. Then, in 2011, just when we thought Nadal seemed on the verge of another historic season—and seemingly on his way to a ‘Rafa Slam’—Novak Djokovic came out of the proverbial nowhere to not only win the Australian Open, but go on to comprehensively dethrone Nadal.

We ought not be overly optimistic, then, about our abilities as tennis weathermen.

Too often, too many factors have conspired to overthrow and destabilise long visions of the future. Having said so, nonetheless, might we at least be allowed to claim something for 2012—to at least promise an air of the historic for the next twelve months?

It's true, the ‘historic’ has become something of a cliché in these few years.

Men’s tennis in the Open Era—many pundits have contended—experienced quite as many dramatic and soaring moments in quite as short a time as 2004-2011. Can we conceivably set Marat Safin’s 2000, or Hewitt’s 2002, against any of the numbers set by Federer’s 2006, Nadal’s 2010 or Djokovic’s 2011 seasons? No.

Quite simply, we do have a right to claim the historic for 2012.

Not only will it be off one of the ‘greatest seasons in men’s tennis’, as many have seen it, it will also see the emergence of more—even if recurring—at least matured, stories.

We start with Novak Djokovic. Can he possibly re-enact his heroics of 2011? Or will the pressures of kingship be simply too much for the newly crowned, long-time tennis prince?

There is no possible talk of him winning a ‘Novak Slam’ at the Australian Open, because that would only be his third in a row. But he would be defending a grand slam title successfully if he did, and would poise him nicely for the Novak Slam at the French, where he only narrowly missed out on the final in 2011.

Djokovic most certainly won’t be having the blessing of the Davis Cup in 2012, which many claimed ignited his whole love affair with playing tennis tyrant. He had brought Serbia to victory in 2010, but managed the exact opposite last year—when he retired tamely against Del Potro in the deciding semifinal match.

The two who very well might have something from the Davis Cup to draw upon for their singles games, however, are Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. Both ended their 2011 campaigns highly successfully in that regard.

Nadal, of course, did exactly what Djokovic had done in 2010, winning the whole thing for Spain in his decisive encounter with….Del Potro. (Could the tennis world really be hinging on the Atlantine shoulders of the Argentine?). The world No. 2 could do well with such confidence, and the 2012 season awaits eagerly to see if the Davis Cup has indeed rubbed off on him like it did for Djokovic.

Federer brought Switzerland to victory over her longtime Davis Cup nemesis Australia, beating them on home ground for the first time. H

is fortunes since then have—predictably—prospered, with an unbeaten run since then. Going into 2012, the 16-time grand slam champion is riding a 19-match winning streak, and is certainly eager for more success this year. The last two years have been something of a baptism by fire for the Swiss No. 1 and world No. 3—encompassing his worst grand slam seasons since 2002-3.

News of the Big Three at the beginning of any year has been taken for granted in the last five years, but with Murray, we find something slightly more recent—his real prominence and potential at the very top dates to 2008—and not simply in his relatively sooner rise to the top.

In 2012 he announced his hiring of Ivan Lendl as his new coach, a move that many experts have claimed should add a new spring to the Scot’s already formidable tennis step. Also a loser in his first couple of grand slam finals, Lendl might well provide the mental fortitude and breadth of experience, as well as the rigour and stern discipline Murray would need to hoist his first slam trophy this year.

At the Australian Open, he is a two-time losing finalist, and one suspects, it is a venue at which he is desperate to turn things around for himself. Murray would otherwise find himself very quickly down the ugly road of Favourite-turned-Flunk.

Maybe the Davis Cup does have the power to determine ontologically the fate of the tennis season. Perhaps it acts like something of a crystal ball catalyst—where tennis seems to obey certain laws concerning the prosperity and happiness of those who lay down their self-centred egos for a greater cause.

If we think like that, we seem headed for a renewal of the Federer-Nadal rivalry in 2012, and a downturn in the fortunes of Djokovic and Murray. But that would only be a very bad, charlatanic, over-exertion of apparent psychic powers.

Reflecting on the prognoses of even the most seasoned tennis observers, however, who is to say that it is that very bad?