NFL Playoff Picture 2024-25: Standings, Bracket Scenarios After Jets Win vs. Texans
The NFL season is nearing the end of its first half after the New York Jets kicked off Week 9 with a 21-13 home win over the Houston Texans on Thursday evening.
This season has been an interesting one to say the least, and both conferences offer far different division races.
In the AFC, it's possible three teams (the Buffalo Bills, Texans and Kansas City Chiefs) run away with their division titles before we get too far into December, although Houston's loss knocks the 6-3 team down to a game-and-a-half ahead of the 4-4 Indianapolis Colts (albeit with the head-to-head tiebreaker in hand).
But the race for the AFC's top seed (and bye) could be a great one. The 7-0 Chiefs lead that charge, but the 6-2 Bills and 6-2 Pittsburgh Steelers aren't far behind.
It's a lot tighter in the NFC, where the first- and second-place teams in three of the four divisions are tied or a half-game apart in the standings. Even the NFC South is competitive, as the Atlanta Falcons hold only a one-game edge over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (with the head-to-head tiebreaker confirmed).
Following Thursday's matchup, here's a look at the latest standings and playoff pictures, alongside bracket scenario discussions and a closer look at two of the more intriguing division races thus far.
AFC Standings
1 of 2
Division Leaders
1. Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
3. Buffalo Bills (6-2)
4. Houston Texans (6-3)
Wild-Card Race
5. Denver Broncos (5-3)
6. Baltimore Ravens (5-3)
7. Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)
8. Indianapolis Colts (4-4)
9. Cincinnati Bengals (3-5)
10. New York Jets (3-6)
11. Miami Dolphins (2-5)
12. Cleveland Browns (2-6)
13. Las Vegas Raiders (2-6)
14. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)
15. New England Patriots (2-6)
16. Tennessee Titans (1-6)
Italics: Currently in wild card playoff position.
Bracket Scenarios: No. 1 Seed Talk, and The Texans/Jets Game Impact
The Chiefs have a massive leg up on the rest of the AFC thanks to a two-game edge in the loss column over the Bills and Steelers.
However, Buffalo and Pittsburgh both host Kansas City for home games later this year, on Nov. 17 and Christmas Day, respectively. They can take care of business and position themselves nicely in the fight for the No. 1 seed.
But the two-time defending Super Bowl champions are still in good shape. Six of their next nine games are at home. Two of the road games are against the one-win Carolina Panthers and two-win Cleveland Browns. Barring a monumental collapse, the Chiefs should be in the No. 1 seed mix to the end.
Meanwhile, Thursday was a brutal loss for the shorthanded Texans, who are notably without wideouts Nico Collins (IR, hamstring) and Stefon Diggs (season-ending torn ACL). Houston's passing attack, understandably, couldn't get going, and it's fair to wonder whether the team is a step behind the AFC's elite (e.g. the Chiefs, Bills and the AFC North's top two).
At this juncture, it's feasible that the AFC South's victor could very well be the No. 4 seed, hosting the runner-up of the AFC North race between the Steelers and Ravens. That's a tough matchup for Houston.
And it's not over for the Jets, who would have been 15th in the AFC with a loss. Instead, the team has a pulse in 10th. A long road still awaits, but the Jets only play one team currently holding a winning record (the 6-2 Bills) the rest of the way. New York could very well parlay this momentum, go on a late run and sneak into the playoffs at 9-8 or 10-7. That's the optimistic side, of course, with the other side being the Jets stumble to the finish of a disappointing year.
Thursday brings hope, though, and it remains to be seen whether it's a dangerous thing or the best of things.
AFC North: Steelers and Ravens Race Once Again
The Steelers or Baltimore Ravens have won the AFC North a combined 16 times since the division's advent in 2002. It's very likely this season will mark No. 17.
The 6-2 Steelers are off to a tremendous start. If not for a pair of three-point losses, Pittsburgh would be 8-0. The team's No. 2 scoring defense leads the way, but the running game has gotten going behind Najee Harris (744 total yards), and the pass game has fared well behind new quarterback Russell Wilson.
The only downside here is a brutal schedule in the second half. Pittsburgh somehow hasn't faced a division rival yet, so six AFC North games remain.
That means two games against the 5-3 Ravens, two games against a potentially explosive Cincinnati Bengals offense and two games against a Cleveland Browns team that looks rejuvenated with Jameis Winston now at quarterback. The three other games are at the 6-2 Washington Commanders, at the 5-2 Philadelphia Eagles and home versus the 7-0 Chiefs.
Meanwhile, the Ravens stand as one of the NFL's most perplexing teams. At their best, they look like the league's No. 1 team, nevermore than when they crushed the Bills 35-10. At their worst, they've fallen to the 2-6 Las Vegas Raiders and 2-6 Browns.
But the bottom line is this team can go places with potential three-time MVP Lamar Jackson and rushing leader Derrick Henry pacing the offense. The problem is a leaky defense that's 26th in points allowed, even though the team has solid playmakers in the likes of Kyle Hamilton and sack leader Kyle Van Noy.
The schedule isn't easy, with six games remaining against winning teams. Five of their remaining nine are at home, though, which should help matters.
NFC Standings
2 of 2
Division Leaders
1. Detroit Lions (6-1)
2. Washington Commanders (6-2)
3. Atlanta Falcons (5-3)
4. Arizona Cardinals (4-4)
Wild-Card Race
5. Green Bay Packers (6-2)
6. Minnesota Vikings (5-2)
7. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)
8. Chicago Bears (4-3)
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4)
10. San Francisco 49ers (4-4)
11. Seattle Seahawks (4-4)
12. Los Angeles Rams (3-4)
13. Dallas Cowboys (3-4)
14. New Orleans Saints (2-6)
15. New York Giants (2-6)
16. Carolina Panthers (1-7)
Italics: Currently in wild card playoff position.
Bracket Scenarios: Lions in Driver's Seat, But For How Long?
There's much evidence to suggest, of course, that this could finally be the Detroit Lions' year.
Through seven games, Detroit is 6-1, outscoring opponents by 14.3 points per game. Detroit is No. 1 with 33.4 points per game, including 43.0 PPG in its last four.
Their only issue is the brutally tough division, which features four teams with winning records. If the Chicago Bears successfully defended a Hail Mary last Sunday, the last-place team in the NFC North would have been 5-2.
Detroit got an early NFC North win, taking down the 5-2 Minnesota Vikings on the road, 31-29. But the 6-2 Green Bay Packers will now welcome the Lions into town Sunday. The Vikings are about to embark on a three-game stretch against the AFC South's .500-or-below teams, which include the 2-6 Jacksonville Jaguars and one-win Tennessee Titans. And the Bears are legit, as evidenced by its strong fourth-ranked scoring defense and promising offense.
Will a team rise from the black-and-blue division to be the No. 1 seed, or will they beat each other up so much to knock themselves down and see an NFC East team or even the 5-3 Atlanta Falcons rise up?
The current edge goes to the Lions, of course, as the team looks like a clear Super Bowl contender. But the path to glory won't be easy.
NFC East Shaping Up To Be Tightly Contested 2-Team Race
The sky appears to be the limit for presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders, who could be a team of destiny after the quarterback's Hail Mary fell into the hands of Noah Brown last Sunday in an 18-15 win over the Chicago Bears.
At 6-2, the Commanders are well-positioned for the playoffs, and 7-2 is well within reach with a road game against the 2-6 New York Giants looming. But it feels like Daniels can put this team on his back and take it to the Super Bowl at this stage. The third-ranked offense is explosive, and the 10th-ranked defense is playing hard, especially with future Hall of Fame linebacker Bobby Wagner aboard.
But the 5-2 Eagles are flying high as winners of three straight and could spoil the Commanders' division title chances. They also sport a Top 10 offense and defense, and six of their final nine games are against teams with losing records. Four of their final five games are also at home. The table is set for a great second-half run and a potential NFC East title (and maybe the NFC's No. 1 seed).
Washington and Philadelphia still have to play each other twice, and those games should go a long way toward determining the division champ.
The two don't have much competition. The Dallas Cowboys have seemingly played themselves out of the NFC East race with ugly performance after ugly performance, putting the team at 3-4 overall. And with the Giants sitting in the basement, this appears to be a two-horse race.
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