How Many Current MLB Stars Were Once Top 100 Prospects?
Not every top-tier MLB prospect develops into a star at the big league level, and not every MLB star was a top-tier prospect during his time in the minor leagues.
How often do future stars slip through the top-prospect cracks?
Perhaps the most notable current examples of players who were nowhere to be found on Top 100 prospect lists during their time in the minors are Jose Altuve, Paul Goldschmidt and José Ramírez, though they are far from the only examples.
Ahead is a deep dive into the prospect history of baseball's biggest current stars, but the first step in that process was determining who would be included on our list of stars and which top-prospect lists would be used.
First things first, let's lay out those parameters.
Who Qualified as a Star?
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The first order of business was to get a large enough sample size of players to actually be able to draw some conclusions, with the initial goal being to put together a list of at least 100 players.
Deciding who qualifies as a "star" could have been largely subjective, but instead I stuck to a purely statistical approach to remove any potential bias from the equation as far as who was and was not included.
In order to be considered for inclusion, a player had to fulfill one of the following criteria:
- 4+ WAR in 2024
- 6+ WAR in 2023 and 2024 combined
- 9+ WAR in 2022, 2023 and 2024 combined
Each player's WAR totals from both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs were considered to broaden the scope even further, and the end result was a list of 116 players who gave a good snapshot of the league's top-tier of talent.
By digging back into 2022 and 2023, it allowed for guys like Ronald Acuña Jr. to be included in the conversation. Looking at combined WAR from previous seasons rather than simply single-season totals helped to eliminate one-year outliers who have since regressed.
Which Top 100 Prospect Lists Did We Use?
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The initial plan was to use a combination of the Top 100 lists from Baseball America, MLB.com and my own here at Bleacher Report, but that quickly hit a snag.
The Top 100 list database from MLB.com only goes back to 2011, while I released my first Top 100 ranking at Bleacher Report in 2012.
That was fine for most players, but someone like Justin Verlander created problems.
The future Hall of Famer was at his prospect peak in 2006, so there was not an available data point on his ranking position from MLB.com or Bleacher Report.
With that in mind, the decision was made to narrow focus solely to the Baseball America Top 100 list, which has been around since 1990.
Never a Top 100 Prospect
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Total: 30/116 (25.9%)
Hitters (15): 2B Jose Altuve (HOU), IF Luis Arraez (SD), C Patrick Bailey (SF), C William Contreras (MIL), 1B Yandy Díaz (TB), OF Brenton Doyle (COL), 1B Paul Goldschmidt (STL), OF Steven Kwan (CLE), 2B Ketel Marte (ARI), 2B/OF Jeff McNeil (NYM), 1B Matt Olson (ATL), C Cal Raleigh (SEA), 3B José Ramírez (CLE), 3B Eugenio Suárez (ARI), 1B Christian Walker (ARI)
Pitchers (15): SP Tyler Anderson (LAA), SP Luis Castillo (SEA), RP Emmanuel Clase (CLE), SP Zach Eflin (BAL), SP Zac Gallen (ARI), SP Michael King (SD), SP Pablo López (MIN), SP Seth Lugo (KC), SP Cole Ragans (KC), SP Cristopher Sánchez (PHI), RP Tanner Scott (SD), SP Justin Steele (CHC), SP Spencer Strider (ATL), SP Framber Valdez (HOU), SP Logan Webb (SF)
Notes
-A few names in particular stand out on this list, starting with Jose Altuve and Paul Goldschmidt, who are likely both headed for the Hall of Fame one day. Altuve spent his time in the minors overlooked due to his small stature, while Goldschmidt fit the bust-heavy mold of a right-handed-hitting, first-base only prospect.
-José Ramírez signed for just $50,000 out of the Dominican Republic, was never ranked higher than the No. 9 prospect in the Cleveland system, and spent his first two years in the big leagues as a utility player before developing into the perennial MVP candidate he is today.
-It was surprising to see Ketel Marte was never a Top 100 prospect given his profile as an athletic shortstop with a high offensive ceiling. The same goes for Spencer Strider given his high-octane stuff, though he moved so quickly through the Atlanta system that there was not much time for him to join the rankings.
Peaked in the No. 100-76 Range
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Total: 10/116 (8.6%)
Hitters (9): 3B Matt Chapman (SF), OF Jarren Duran (BOS), IF Ha-Seong Kim (SD), 3B Isaac Paredes (CHC), C J.T. Realmuto (PHI), OF Brent Rooker (OAK), 2B Marcus Semien (TEX), C Will Smith (LAD), 2B Brice Turang (MIL)
Pitchers (1): SP Tanner Bibee (CLE)
Notes
-Isaac Paredes, Brent Rooker and Marcus Semien all found success once they left the organization that originally signed or drafted them. Semien was a sixth-round pick by the Chicago White Sox in 2011, but he was traded to the Oakland Athletics along with a young Chris Bassitt in a six-player deal to acquire Jeff Samardzija prior to the 2015 season.
-Not all former top prospects find instant success in the big leagues, and Jarren Duran and Brice Turang are good examples of that. Both players have taken a significant step forward this season after struggling to find their footing in their first taste of the big leagues.
-The Cleveland Guardians have a fantastic track record of developing late-round pitching prospects into solid MLB contributors. Tanner Bibee was a fifth-round pick in 2021, and he jumped onto Top 100 prospect lists in 2023 after posting a 2.17 ERA with 167 strikeouts in 132.2 innings the previous year.
Peaked In the No. 75-51 Range
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Total: 13/116 (11.2%)
Hitters (10): OF Mookie Betts (LAD), C Willson Contreras (STL), OF Ian Happ (CHC), OF Aaron Judge (NYY), SS Zach Neto (LAA), DH Marcell Ozuna (ATL), SS Jeremy Peña (HOU), OF Juan Soto (NYY), 2B Bryson Stott (PHI), OF Daulton Varsho (TOR)
Pitchers (3): SP Sandy Alcántara (MIA), SP Erick Fedde (STL), SP Sonny Gray (STL)
Notes
-It's hard to believe that Mookie Betts (No. 75 in 2014), Aaron Judge (No. 53 in 2015) and Juan Soto (No. 56 in 2018) were never Top 50 prospects to start any season during their time as prospects, which shows that there is plenty of superstar potential even in the bottom half of Top 100 lists.
-Willson Contreras and Ian Happ were the No. 2 and No. 3 prospects in the Chicago Cubs farm system heading into what would be their World Series-winning campaign in 2016. The No. 1 spot belonged to Gleyber Torres, who was traded for Aroldis Chapman later that summer.
-It has been seven years since Erick Fedde last appeared on a Top 100 prospect list, peaking at No. 52 prior to the 2017 season, yet he is finally enjoying a long-awaited breakout season following a stint in the KBO.
Peaked in the No. 50-26 Range
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Total: 18/116 (15.5%)
Hitters (11): 1B Pete Alonso (NYM), DH Yordan Alvarez (HOU), 3B Nolan Arenado (STL), 3B Alex Bregman (HOU), 2B Andrés Giménez (CLE), OF Michael Harris II (ATL), 2B Nico Hoerner (CHC), OF Brandon Marsh (PHI), C Sean Murphy (ATL), OF Brandon Nimmo (NYM), SS Masyn Winn (STL)
Pitchers (7): SP Corbin Burnes (BAL), SP Dylan Cease (SD), SP Max Fried (ATL), SP Logan Gilbert (SEA), SP Hunter Greene (CIN), SP Reynaldo López (ATL), SP Aaron Nola (PHI)
Notes
-Right-handed-hitting first basemen have a higher bust rate than almost any position player demographic, so it speaks to just how impressive Pete Alonso was in the minors that he was a Top 50 prospect. He was No. 48 in 2019 after hitting .285/.396/.580 with 31 doubles, 36 home runs and 119 RBI the year before.
-It's interesting to see that Dylan Cease (CHC to CWS), Max Fried (SD to ATL) and Reynaldo López (WAS to CWS) were all traded while they were still prospects. Selling high on pitching prospects is often a good idea, but there is potential for it to come back to bite clubs.
-As the No. 2 overall pick in the 2015 draft and an immediate star in the big leagues, it was surprising to see that Alex Bregman never climbed higher than No. 42 on the Top 100 list. He was only eligible once, as he exhausted his prospect eligibility down the stretch in 2016 before taking over as an everyday guy the following year.
Peaked in the No. 25-11 Range
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Total: 16/116 (13.8%)
Hitters (9): 2B Ozzie Albies (ATL), 3B Rafael Devers (BOS), 1B Freddie Freeman (LAD), 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT), 3B Manny Machado (SD), OF Jackson Merrill (SD), 3B Austin Riley (ATL), OF Kyle Tucker (HOU), OF Christian Yelich (MIL)
Pitchers (7): SP Kevin Gausman (TOR), SP Tyler Glasnow (LAD), SP George Kirby (SEA), SP Chris Sale (ATL), SP Tarik Skubal (DET), SP Blake Snell (SF), SP Zack Wheeler (PHI)
Notes
-Rafael Devers entered pro ball as one of the most hyped international prospects of all time after signing for $1.5 million in 2013, and he put up strong numbers throughout his time in the minors, so it's a bit surprising he never cracked the Top 10 on leaguewide lists.
-Zack Wheeler (No. 6 in 2009), Chris Sale (No. 13 in 2010), Blake Snell (No. 52 in 2011), Kevin Gausman (No. 4 in 2012) and George Kirby (No. 20 in 2019) were all first-round picks in their respective draft classes, so they entered pro ball with lofty expectations and delivered.
-NL Rookie of the Year contender Jackson Merrill was the No. 17 prospect in baseball heading into the 2024 season, and he has flashed some legitimate superstar potential in his age-21 season while learning to play center field on the fly.
Peaked in the No. 10-1 Range
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Total: 29/116 (25.0%)
Hitters (26): SS CJ Abrams (WAS), OF Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL), SS Willy Adames (MIL), OF Cody Bellinger (CHC), SS Bo Bichette (TOR), 2B Xander Bogaerts (SD), OF Corbin Carroll (ARI), SS Carlos Correa (MIN), SS J.P. Crawford (SEA), SS Elly De La Cruz (CIN), OF Riley Greene (DET), 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), 1B Bryce Harper (PHI), SS Gunnar Henderson (BAL), SS Francisco Lindor (NYM), C Gabriel Moreno (ARI), DH Shohei Ohtani (LAD), OF Julio Rodríguez (SEA), C Adley Rutschman (BAL), SS Corey Seager (TEX), SS Dansby Swanson (CHC), OF Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), OF Mike Trout (LAA), SS Trea Turner (PHI), SS Anthony Volpe (NYY), SS Bobby Witt Jr. (KC)
Pitchers (3): SP Gerrit Cole (NYY), SP Paul Skenes (PIT), SP Justin Verlander (HOU)
Notes
-Bryce Harper (2011, 2012), Corey Seager (2016), Ronald Acuña Jr. (2018), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2019), Adley Rutschman (2022) and Gunnar Henderson (2023) each took a turn as the No. 1 overall prospect in baseball.
-If you're wondering who was ranked ahead of Shohei Ohtani in his lone year as a prospect-eligible player, it was Ronald Acuña Jr. on the 2018 list. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the No. 3 spot that year, it is arguably the best trio of prospects atop the Top 100 list in any year in recent history.
-It speaks to how volatile pitching prospects can be that there are only three pitchers on this list, and all three of them were viewed as no-doubt, top-of-the-rotation starters when they were drafted. Gerrit Cole (2011) and Paul Skenes (2023) were both No. 1 overall picks, while Justin Verlander (2004) went No. 2 overall behind Matt Bush.
Breakdown and Final Thoughts
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Here are a few interesting statistics now that we have crunched the numbers on MLB stars and their history on Top 100 prospect lists.
- There were 80 hitters and 36 pitchers in our sample size of 116 players, which speaks to the lack of star-caliber pitching talent across baseball right now, at least in terms of year-in, year-out consistency.
- Of the 80 hitters, a staggering 81.3 percent were Top 100 prospects during their time in the minors.
- Of the 36 pitchers, only 58.3 percent were Top 100 prospects during their time in the minors.
- All told, 74.1 percent of the stars included in this article were Top 100 prospects at one point in their careers.
It would be interesting to run this same exercise for 2014, 2004 and 1994 to see how much better or worse the industry has become at identifying future stars on Top 100 prospect lists. Perhaps that's an article for another time.
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