2024 Paris Olympics: Biggest Keys for Team USA vs. Nikola Jokić, Serbia in Semifinals
Nikola Jokić and his Serbian teammates overcame a 24-point deficit on Tuesday to win their quarterfinal matchup against Australia, 95-90. Hours later, Team USA throttled Brazil, 122-87.
Now, the knockout phase matchup many of us have been anticipating for months is here. It's the No. 1 team in the men's FIBA world rankings vs. No. 4. It's the best individual player in the world against the best team. It's Jokić vs. Joel Embiid, one of the defining rivalries of this era.
The Americans handily beat Serbia in both an exhibition leading up to this tournament and during group play, but all bets are off in a single-elimination situation. In their last meeting, the score was 81-81 with Jokić on the floor. Serbia lost nine non-Jokić minutes 29-3.
Will Svetislav Pešić play his superstar all 40 minutes on Thursday? Will that be enough for Serbia to pull off the massive upset (Team USA has opened up as a 16.5-point favorite)?
The biggest keys for the Americans to avoid that can be found below.
Three-Point Shooting
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After shooting 15-of-31 from deep in its blowout win over Brazil, Team USA now has 55 triples and has made 44.0 percent of its three-point attempts in this tournament.
If the Americans continue to shoot at or around that rate, Serbia won't have much of a chance in this game. It is 35-of-108 (32.4 percent) from deep, and if the Serbians are five or six threes in the hole, they won't be able to make up that gap with twos and free throws.
Perhaps what's most scary is the fact that Stephen Curry hasn't even gotten going yet. The excellent outside numbers are largely courtesy of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Anthony Edwards. Curry is now 5-of-20 from deep in France.
If he gets on track, keeping up with the American attack could be impossible.
Perimeter Defense
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After there was some controversy over the finalization of Team USA's roster while it was in Las Vegas for training camp, it's hard to argue with the results.
The Americans have been dominant through their four Olympic games, and the perimeter defense of Jrue Holiday and late-addition Derrick White is a big reason.
Both guards can bother any opposing 1 or 2 in this field. Both are stout enough to even guard some 3s and hold their own after switches onto 4s. And that will be particularly important against Serbia.
Two of its best players are in the backcourt.
Vasilije Micić is a 6'5" playmaker who can shoot off the bounce and set up teammates for easy baskets. For the tournament, he's averaging 13.3 points, 5.5 assists and 1.8 threes in just 22.3 minutes.
The bigger threat, though, is almost certainly Bogdan Bogdanović, who's averaging 18.5 points, 4.3 assists and 3.0 threes while shooting 48.0 percent from deep. He's the kind of shooter who can completely swing a game with a hot stretch, and defenders like Holiday and White will be tasked with preventing that.
If Micić and Bogdanović have big games, Team USA's margin of error will be slimmer. If the Americans slow those two down, they might be able to cover that big betting line.
Scoring Balance
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After Booker scored 18 points in Tuesday's win, the Americans have now had a different leading scorer in each of their four Olympic games. KD, Edwards and Bam Adebayo led the charge in the previous contests.
The depth of scoring talent on this team is unrivaled in France. Regardless of who's on the floor, opposing defenses have to be keenly aware of the scoring opportunities of at least four or five players. And Serbia simply doesn't have enough NBA-caliber defenders to cover four to five NBA-level scorers on every possession over the course of a 40-minute game.
To an extent, the Serbians can overcome that with sound team defense, crisp rotations and timely help, but there will be breakdowns, especially if Team USA continues to move the ball and pass up good shots for great ones.
If some of the more ball-dominant scorers like Embiid, Edwards or Jayson Tatum stop the motion and allow Serbia's off-ball defenders to take a breath, the defense will have a better shot.
If the Americans don't let it off the hook, the balanced attack is borderline unstoppable.
Nikola Jokić's Playing Time
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Jokić's plus-minus may be the stat of the tournament to this point.
The most dramatic example of his impact on it happened in the opener against Team USA. Again, Serbia played the Americans even with Jokić on the floor and were leveled when he wasn't. But he was plus-10 or better in each of the other three games. Over the course of all four games, he's plus-43, while his team is plus-31.
When he plays, every other Serbian on the floor is more dangerous. Opposing defenses have to pay a ton of attention to Jokić, both on and off the ball, giving everyone else extra operating space. When he's holding or handling the ball, his ability to manipulate defenses and hit cutters or shooters with on-time, on-target passes is unrivaled.
If he plays 38-40 minutes, an upset might be in the cards (even if it's a long shot). If he sits for an extended stretch or is forced into one by foul trouble, the only drama might be how big the final spread is.
Joel Embiid
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The Americans recruited Embiid to play for this team. Securing the big man gave them, without question, the deepest and most talented (in the aggregate) corps of bigs.
But prior to Tuesday's blowout over the woefully outmatched Brazilians, his fit alongside the rest of Team USA often looked wonky. His post touches slowed down an offense that flowed better when he wasn't featured (or in the game at all). And he sometimes looked sluggish in transition.
But he did have 14 points on Tuesday. He was plus-25, which brought his tournament-long total to plus-24. And if there's one matchup where this squad truly needs the 2022-23 MVP, it might be this one.
Embiid was thoroughly outplayed by Jokić in group play, and he hasn't appeared in a game in Denver since 2019. But the last three times these two went head-to-head in the NBA, Embiid averaged 40.7 points.
If he takes Thursday's matchup with Jokić as seriously as he has the ones that have impacted MVP races, Team USA losing feels highly unlikely. And if that approach to the game leads to Embiid outplaying Serbia's star center, the Americans are a virtual lock.
