2012 NFL Draft: First-Round Talents Most Likely to Be Busts

What defines a first-round bust? Is it a player that simply winds up sucking and not seeing the field? Or is it more than that—is it a player that doesn't live up to the lofty expectations given to them on draft day?

For every complete and utter bust like JaMarcus Russell, there is a player like Alex Smith that has been a serviceable NFL player but absolutely did not warrant a top-overall pick. These are the busts I'm interested in here—players who won't live up to their considerable hype.

Let's take a look.

Justin Blackmon

To me, Blackmon conjures up memories of another stud Big 12 receiver we were all convinced would be dynamic at the pro level. That is, Michael Crabtree.

Crabtree—another two-time Biletnikoff Award winner, by the way—has shown steady improvement in San Francisco, but one would hope the 10th overall selection in 2009 would have put up better numbers in his third year than 73 receptions for 880 yards and four touchdowns.

Those are solid numbers, but they aren't Top-10 draft pick numbers in year three.

That being said, I consulted Bleacher Report's Matt Miller, who thinks Crabtree could possibly be elite yet.

Blackmon should be good. However, I don't see him being great.

Vontaze Burfict

I love Burfict's physical gifts at the linebacker position. With hard work and dedication, he could be an absolute stud and anchor a defense in the NFL for years to come.

However, Burfict is also known for playing out of control and earning himself personal fouls. Furthermore, his commitment to the game off the field has been questioned by some scouts.

Consider the following, from Rob Rang of CBS:

"

Burfict had 69 stops in 13 games (5.3 per game), which didn't rank highly enough to register among the nation's top 100 tacklers.

For the record, Burfict didn't rank in the top 100 in solo tackles ... or tackles for loss, sacks, forced fumbles or any other statistic that typically defines an "impact" linebacker.

"

Burfict will either be a home-run pick or a major disappointment. Much as I love his potential, it's hard to ignore the signs that suggest he'll be a bust.

Andrew Luck

Here's the thing about Luck—everyone expects him to be the next Peyton Manning. Therefore, if he becomes the next Matt Ryan, he'll be judged by many as a bust.

Is that fair?

Probably not.

Is Matt Ryan a solid, franchise quarterback?

Absolutely.

No matter. The Colts are either going to navigate a tricky situation by drafting Luck—perhaps leading them to trade the face of the franchise, Peyton Manning—or another team is going to pay a huge price to acquire the first-round pick.

If Luck doesn't become a top-three quarterback in the NFL and win a Super Bowl, he'll be looked at as a bust.

Expectations can really suck, huh?

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