Final Win-Loss Predictions for Every NBA Team
The 2023-24 NBA season has progressed to the point that there are too many nail-biting playoff races to count.
Each day the Association creeps closer to the campaign's April 14 finale adds a new look to the league standings, making it tricky for even the most seasoned scoreboard-watchers to be totally in-tune with where everything stands.
While many of these races appear headed for photo finishes, we don't want to wait that long to see the results, and we're guessing you don't either. So, let's break out the crystal ball and form final win-loss projections for all 30 teams, weighing everything from season-long stats and recent trends to gut feelings and eye-test results.
Atlanta Hawks (37-45)
1 of 30
The Hawks have that classic, totally undesirable quality where they can beat anyone but also anyone can beat them. To that end, they have just as many wins against .500 or better teams as the Cleveland Cavaliers (19) and just as many losses against sub-.500 opponents as the Detroit Pistons (13).
That's why this team never strays too far in one direction or the other. Atlanta's season-long winning streak is four games. Its longest losing streak spanned five games. Whether the Hawks are up or down, you shouldn't expect them to stay there very long.
So, while we're calling for more losses (six) than wins (five) over the remaining schedule, the difference is negligible. This is a mediocre group, so mediocre results must be the expectation.
Boston Celtics (64-18)
2 of 30
With the East's No. 1 seed already in hand, the Celtics certainly don't need to sprint through the stretch run. But they shouldn't down-shift too dramatically, as they'll want to maintain momentum for what they hope will be a championship trek through the playoffs.
The Shamrocks probably should feel unbeatable. They clinched their conference before anyone else secured a playoff spot, which might be the best testament yet to their wire-to-wire dominance this season.
Yet, due to previous stumbles on the big stage, Boston still has plenty to prove about its ability to perform under the brightest lights.
The Celtics won't be able to answer those questions until the postseason, but this lingering skepticism may help fuel them toward the finish line.
Brooklyn Nets (30-52)
3 of 30
If the coaching change from Jacque Vaughn to interim skipper Kevin Ollie was intended to spark this squad, that never happened.
After posting a forgettable .389 winning percentage under Vaughn, the Nets have managed just a .368 clip under Ollie's direction.
To be clear, this bit of backtracking isn't on Ollie. This roster just doesn't have the high-end talent needed to compete. Mikal Bridges is over his skis as a primary option, Cam Thomas is a scoring specialist whose buckets aren't the most efficient, and Ben Simmons is barely a footnote after having yet another season prematurely ended by a back injury.
Normally, this might make Brooklyn a bottom-out candidate, but tanking is off the table, since the Nets' upcoming first-rounder belongs to the Houston Rockets. So, Brooklyn won't even get the benefit from its ever-swelling loss column.
Charlotte Hornets (20-62)
4 of 30
The Hornets are barreling toward another brutal finish in Buzz City, where it feels like folks are waiting less on the returns of LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams and more on the reports that these primary building blocks will be shut down.
Between Ball's absence and the trades of Terry Rozier and P.J. Washington, this offense is about as punch-less as any you'll find. And it's not like there's much to write home about with this defense.
Charlotte is bad in a way that even its .239 winning percentage may not fully communicate. That's an atrocious mark, sure, but it's only the league's fourth-worst. The Hornets' minus-11.0 net rating, meanwhile, not only brings up the league's rear, but it's also the worst by nearly two full points per 100 possessions.
Chicago Bulls (39-43)
5 of 30
The Bulls should be looking up at the Philadelphia 76ers and plotting ways to leapfrog the Joel Embiid-less team in the standings.
Instead, Chicago is looking over its shoulders and hoping that it won't get jumped by Atlanta.
That possibility remains very much in play, especially with the Bulls having just face-planted against a Washington Wizards team playing without Kyle Kuzma and Tyus Jones.
"We shouldn't drop games like this right now," DeMar DeRozan told reporters afterward. "We're resilient, but we can't live on the edge every single game."
What other choice does Chicago have, though? The Bulls don't have the firepower to overwhelm opponents, so they're either grinding out wins or suffering gut-punch losses. They've managed all of 10 double-digit wins on the season, tying the Toronto Raptors for the fourth-fewest in the conference.
Cleveland Cavaliers (50-32)
6 of 30
Prior to the All-Star break, the Cavaliers were a legitimate threat to capture the East's No. 2 seed, and Donovan Mitchell built a credible case to be a down-ballot MVP candidate. Since intermission, though, Mitchell has missed too many games to be considered for end-of-season awards, while Cleveland has spiraled in a way that skidding to the No. 5 seed is a real possibility.
The Cavs don't know when Mitchell will be ready to return from his knee and nasal injuries, which makes it tricky to project what's ahead for this team. Cleveland isn't nearly as competitive without the All-Star guard. When he plays, this group performs like a powerhouse (plus-8.7 points per 100 possessions). When he doesn't, it becomes a pushover (minus-1.7 points per 100 possessions).
The Cavaliers have gone just 6-8 in March (entering Wednesday) with the month's 10th-worst net rating (minus-3.2). If Mitchell doesn't get healthy—and stay healthy—soon, then this projection could prove too generous.
Dallas Mavericks (50-32)
7 of 30
Should we be talking more about the Mavericks as real threats to make major noise come playoff time?
That might sound like a rhetorical question, but the answer is obviously yes.
While external observes may have quibbled about Dallas' willingness to part with first-round picks for P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the deadline, it's safe to assume the Mavericks are having zero second thoughts about those trades, having gone a blistering 15-6 with the league's fourth-best net rating since the deadline (plus-7.1).
Star guards Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving have predictably been front-and-center for this surge, posting a dominant plus-9.8 net rating over their 527 shared minutes since the deadline. Dončić is building a compelling MVP case, Irving is doing everything you want to see from a superstar sidekick, and the role players are all finding their fits around them. Expect to hear the Mavs mentioned a lot as a team no one wants to face in the first round.
Denver Nuggets (58-24)
8 of 30
The Nuggets could push hard for a better record than this, and if they view the No. 1 seed as a non-negotiable part of their championship defense, then they just might do it. But with Jamal Murray fighting an ankle sprain, and Aaron Gordon dealing with a plantar fascia strain, Denver figures to prioritize health and freshness above all else.
Depending on what happens behind them, that could wind up costing the Nuggets that top spot in the West, though as long as Nikola Jokić remains upright, this club can reel off victories even when it is less than 100 percent.
This projection might prove a pinch conservative, but Denver has some tough games remaining and a few injuries to manage, so it feels appropriate.
Detroit Pistons (14-68)
9 of 30
The full-strength Pistons have been awful this season, so it's no surprise to see their less-than-full-strength version get routinely housed here lately. Detroit has dropped seven in a row entering Wednesday, and only one of those losses was decided by fewer than 13 points.
Injuries are mounting in the Motor City, and it's hard to imagine these absences clear up over the final few weeks. The Pistons have nothing to play for beyond draft lottery odds, so if any of their young players are less than 100 percent, it makes sense to sit them.
Again, though, Detroit could roll out everyone and still get rolled over by the opposition. The Pistons aren't good enough to feel confident going into matchups with anyone, and no one has struggled to punch up a competition level or two more than this bunch. They have a league-worst two victories against .500-or-better teams this season.
Golden State Warriors (44-38)
10 of 30
For much of this season, the focus has fallen on Golden State's attempt (and inability) to find a second star to pair with Stephen Curry. Lately, though, the bigger concern has been the fact the Warriors' superstar hasn't been his best, net-shredding self. Since the All-Star break, he's averaging just 22.3 points with an uncharacteristic 40.3/34.4/92.9 shooting slash line.
Golden State doesn't have the talent to win without Curry playing at a high level, though it's possible this recent (and relative) swoon is a result of the massive burden he's carried to this point. To that end, Warriors coach Steve Kerr has aimed to limit the workload of the 36-year-old scoring guard, who's averaging an even 30 minutes since the break.
"We can't expect to just ride Steph game after game after game," Kerr told reporters. "We've put the burden of this franchise on his shoulders for 15 years. We can't expect him to play 35 minutes."
The Warriors, who ostensibly still hold championship aspirations for this core, are suddenly sweating out a late charge from the Houston Rockets, which could lead to the disastrous result of the Dubs not even reaching the play-in tournament. Based on our projections, Golden State won't slip quite that far, but if it gets in, it will be by a photo finish.
Houston Rockets (43-39)
11 of 30
The Rockets appeared dead in the water when breakout big man Alperen Şengün suffered what seemed to be (but maybe isn't actually) a season-ending ankle sprain in early March. They became the basketball world's hottest team instead, riding a nine-game winning streak entering Wednesday while posting the month's third-highest net rating (plus-11.7).
Jalen Green is breathing fire, Amen Thompson connects dots as a two-way playmaker and coach Ime Udoka keeps pressing the right buttons.
All of that said, a soft schedule has helped a lot, too, and that tide is about to turn. Still, the Rockets are in such a good groove they have a real chance to level up against strong competition and take this fight for the West's final play-in spot to the finish line.
Indiana Pacers (47-35)
12 of 30
This projection is perhaps a pinch more generous than the Pacers deserve. Tyrese Haliburton hasn't been the same caliber of scorer—and certainly not the same quality of shooter—since missing much of January with a hamstring strain, and this offense lost plenty of perimeter punch with the Buddy Hield trade and Bennedict Mathurin's season-ending shoulder surgery.
Still, there's a lot to like about this roster, in particular the talented trio of Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner. When those three are clicking, great things can happen, like when they just popped for 76 points on 44 shots in their 17-point takedown of the Los Angeles Clippers.
"We've shown signs of real progress," Pacers coach Rick Carlisle told reporters afterward.
If Indy can build off that triumph, this team has another tier it can rise to—if not more than one. The Pacers also have ample motivation to find this rhythm as soon as possible, since they have zero margin for error in their quest to hold onto a top-six seed.
Los Angeles Clippers (50-32)
13 of 30
The Clippers' championship-or-bust grading scale means no assessments about this squad—good or bad—can be made before the playoffs. If L.A. was to evaluate its regular-season performance, though, it might raise more than a few alarm bells. This group was basically unbeatable in December and January, but a choppy 8-10 effort since the All-Star break (entering Wednesday) has coach Ty Lue questioning his club.
"Identify for us, it's got to be toughness," Lue told reporters after back-to-back double-digit losses. "Which means physicality, mental and physical toughness, a high-powered offense— we can score in a lot of different ways—and we got to have a defensive mindset. And so right now, do we have an identity? I think, yeah, we're soft."
Teams never want to get labeled with the "S" word, especially not at this point on the calendar. Yet this group can't seem to get out of its own way lately, and these struggles have lingered long enough to assume more uneven play is in the cards.
Los Angeles Lakers (47-35)
14 of 30
The Lakers have looked legitimately feisty since the All-Star break (10-6 entering Wednesday), and Tuesday's double-overtime triumph over the Milwaukee Bucks was the latest evidence of that. L.A. not only wiggled out of a 19-point hole in the fourth quarter, but it did so without LeBron James, who was sidelined by a nagging ankle issue.
"I told them, 'Hey, man, just band together. The next couple of minutes, let's try to get it down to single digits. And we have plenty of time to do what we need to do,'" coach Darvin Ham said. "And they went out there and just started making plays and making shots, getting stops."
That was a significant victory for the Lakers, who need all the wins they can to hold onto—if not improve—their ticket to the play-in tournament. They likely have too much ground to make up to snag the sixth seed, but climbing up from the No. 9 spot is certainly possible.
Memphis Grizzlies (27-55)
15 of 30
Despite being eliminated from postseason contention and finding themselves on the business end of a beatdown by the injury bug, the Grizzlies seem determined to run through the tape. Desmond Bane recently returned from a lengthy absence, and Brandon Clarke, who suffered a torn Achilles last March, could be up next.
It's possible, of course, that Memphis' other injury issues render these returns meaningless. The Grizzlies dropped each of Bane's first four games back, and the last three were all decided by double digits.
With no Ja Morant, who had season-ending shoulder surgery in January, Memphis lacks the scoring punch and star power needed to win with any kind of consistency. The Grizzlies have won consecutive games just twice since the start of February, and this projection doesn't see that number increasing.
Miami Heat (45-37)
16 of 30
Between Erik Spoelstra's mastermind coaching and the franchise's famed #culture, it's hard to count out the Heat regardless how their injury report reads. Still, with so much of this roster perpetually missing in action—Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro have shared the hardwood just 21 times—they may not have the bodies or the legs to climb out of the play-in tournament.
And maybe that's no big deal for this bunch. Just last season, Miami was a play-in participant and still reeled off three consecutive series wins before finally falling to Denver in the NBA Finals.
With that run still fresh on the mind, the Heat won't run themselves ragged to post the best regular-season record possible. If their players need more time to get healthy, they'll give it to them and hope they'll be ready for another seed-line-defying playoff performance.
Milwaukee Bucks (53-29)
17 of 30
This projection is, admittedly, one the Bucks haven't earned. Or at least, to reach it, they'd need to show a higher level than they've flashed under coach Doc Rivers, who's a losing skid away from falling below .500 since getting the gig in late January.
Saying that, the talent level on this team makes you want to believe better days are ahead.
Giannis Antetokounmpo remains a reasonable answer in the greatest-player-on-the-planet debate, Damian Lillard is one of the league's most feared closers and a healthy Khris Middleton is one heck of a third wheel. When those three have shared the floor, the Bucks have gone 27-12 and bashed opposing teams by 16.8 points per 100 possessions.
Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26)
18 of 30
The Wolves have shown plenty of bite since losing star big man Karl-Anthony Towns to a meniscus tear in early March. For an offense that is less than elite, the subtraction of his scoring and spacing could've sent them tumbling down the standings. They instead won six of the first nine games he's missed while posting a rock-solid plus-4.4 net rating.
Of course, when forecasting the ferocious fight for the West's top seed, Towns' absence still looms large in that discussion. It is, at the very least, the easiest reason to believe Minnesota likely winds up with the bronze in this three-team race for the top.
Again, though, things could've been much worse without Towns, and the ongoing ascension of Anthony Edwards is the primary reason they're not. The budding superstar has upped the ante without the big fella, averaging 28.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 2.4 combined steals and blocks since Towns went down.
New Orleans Pelicans (51-31)
19 of 30
Because the West is so bunched up, there are scenarios in which New Orleans does anything from snagging a top-four seed to slipping into the play-in tournament. That's why losing Brandon Ingram, the team's top distributor and second-leading scorer, to a bone contusion in his left knee is so worrisome. The Pelicans' margin for error is effectively nonexistent.
And, guess what? We still see this group doing just enough to climb into the No. 4 spot.
New Orleans is third in post-All-Star defensive efficiency, and while the offense isn't as potent without Ingram, it's not at all punch-less. There are still five other double-digit scorers in the rotation, led by a finally healthy Zion Williamson, who's showing no signs of fatigue despite eclipsing the 60-game mark for just the second time in his career.
New York Knicks (50-32)
20 of 30
The Knicks still aren't whole, and a scenario unfortunately exists in which they won't be again this season. But they've recently navigated those injury issues better than most, and this recent surge (seven wins in eight games) gives them a real chance of not only retaining a top-four seed but even pushing for the No. 3 spot.
So many factors have contributed to this resilience, but three stand above the rest. One is Jalen Brunson's ongoing ascension into full-fledged superstardom. Another is some absolutely absurd (and record-setting) shot-making from Donte DiVincenzo. The final tip of the cap goes to stat sheet-stuffing iron man Josh Hart, who has triple-doubled four times and eclipsed 40 minutes seven times in the month of March.
It's fair to question this club's offense with Julius Randle (shoulder) and OG Anunoby (elbow) stuck on the sideline, but this team's tenacious defense and relentless energy can clearly go a long way toward covering up any deficiencies in the point-production department.
Oklahoma City Thunder (58-24)
21 of 30
Scoreboard-watching is much more of a pastime for fans and talking point for talking heads than it is a go-to hobby within NBA locker rooms. Rest assured, though, these ahead-of-schedule Thunder know exactly where they stand and what they can accomplish in the race to be the best in the West.
"You keep tabs on it," Thunder swingman Kenrich Williams told reporters. "The guys, they watch it closely."
Oklahoma City faces a tough schedule from here, but if it can avoid any major slipups during an upcoming five-game road trip featuring stops in New York and Boston, this group has a real shot at the No. 1 seed. And given how well the Thunder have fared at home (28-7 entering Wednesday), they just might go full-throttle in their pursuit of the top spot.
Orlando Magic (49-33)
22 of 30
If you find yourself watching the Magic and are anything other than an ardent Orlando supporter, the games have a claustrophobic feel to them. Their length is intimidating, and their energy levels are seemingly inexhaustible, giving their defense a distinct feeling of being everywhere all at once.
And Orlando has only grown stingier as this season has progressed. Since the All-Star break, coach (of the year candidate) Jamahl Mosley's group has allowed just 106.8 points per 100 possessions. For reference, Minnesota has the best defensive rating on the season at 108.3.
Orlando's offense can be hit or miss, as scorers not named Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner rarely go supernova, and there is a general shooting shortage across this roster. Still, the defense all but ensures the Magic will be in every game they play, and they're in a good enough groove (12-4 since the All-Star break entering Wednesday) to think they'll make a real push for the No. 3 seed.
Philadelphia 76ers (44-38)
23 of 30
Nearly two months have passed since Sixers star center—and reigning MVP—Joel Embiid last suited up due to a meniscus injury. Philadelphia has predictably plummeted without him, posting a .630 winning percentage prior to the injury and only a .385 win rate since.
That's why the Sixers suddenly seem locked into the play-in tournament, which surely isn't how they planned on opening their postseason. As for what happens beyond that, it basically boils down to whether Embiid returns and how close to 100 percent he can reasonably get.
Philly could be a real threat to even the Eastern Conference's elite with a healthy, in-rhythm Embiid manning the middle, but without him, this group could easily fizzle out of the play-in tourney.
Phoenix Suns (47-35)
24 of 30
The Suns' loss on Monday to the Victor Wembanyama-less San Antonio Spurs was brutal for a lot of reasons, but none bigger than this: There just aren't any gimmies left on Phoenix's schedule.
The Suns, who need a lift to escape the play-in tournament, face the league's most difficult remaining schedule by a wide margin. The collective winning percentage of the club's remaining opponents is a staggering .645, per Tankathon.com. No other teams' remaining opponents eclipse the .600 mark.
While you should never totally write off a team with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, on-paper talent only goes so far to ease concerns with choppy on-court performances. Maybe everything suddenly clicks, and the Suns surge through the stretch run, but our crystal ball can't see it happening.
Portland Trail Blazers (20-62)
25 of 30
Plagued by injuries and not overly talented to begin with, Portland opened a seven-game road trip on Monday with an 18-point loss in Houston. Considering the trek will later include stops in Miami, Orlando and Boston, more lopsided losses might be unavoidable.
And maybe that's a good thing, since there's a non-zero chance the Blazers could still sink into the league's bottom three for maximum draft lottery odds.
While this isn't a banner year for draft prospects, there's still young talent available, and Portland needs all it can get to help navigate this post-Damian Lillard era.
Sacramento Kings (48-34)
26 of 30
If Tuesday's tilt with the Mavericks was a measuring-stick matchup for the Kings, then the measurements were ominous.
Sacramento kept things close for two quarters and then completely collapsed over the final 24 minutes, losing the second half by a 74-43 margin. And that wasn't the first time this offense has malfunctioned of late, as the Kings, who were historically efficient just last season, are just 17th in offensive efficiency since March 10.
Granted, that's a tiny sample size, but it's kind of an important one considering where we are on the hoops calendar. And since defense clearly isn't this club's calling card—the Kings are 15th in defensive efficiency on the season—anything less than high-level offense won't cut it.
San Antonio Spurs (19-63)
27 of 30
Record-wise, the Spurs don't look any different from any other bottom-feeder. What makes them unique, though, is the fact they can go into a lot of games feeling as if they have the best player on the court.
Granted, that player is just a 20-year-old rookie, but Victor Wembanyama certainly doesn't produce like an NBA novice. If the campaign closed today, he'd become just the seventh player ever—regardless of experience level—to average 20 points, 10 rebounds, three assists and three blocks.
As long as Wembanyama's ankle injury doesn't linger, his ability to take over a game should net San Antonio at least a few more wins.
Toronto Raptors (24-58)
28 of 30
For the non-math majors in the audience, yes, this projection would give Toronto just one more victory the rest of the way. But given the fact the Raptors have just a single win—a five-point squeaker over the Hornets—to show for their last 15 games, that feels very much possible.
And that isn't necessarily a bad thing. Not when the 2024 first-round pick Toronto owes San Antonio carries only top-six protection. The Raptors need all of the losses they can get if they want to hang onto their pick.
Unless they feel they can stomach another down season, they should absolutely want to keep this pick. After making future-focused trades involving OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, Toronto should be chasing young talent whenever and wherever possible.
Utah Jazz (30-52)
29 of 30
The Jazz headed into the trade deadline with a 26-26 record and a real opportunity to crack the play-in tournament field. Utah's front office, though, prioritized bigger long-term goals and wound up trading away three rotation players—Kelly Olynyk, Ochai Agbaji and Simone Fontecchio—without bringing a plug-and-play contributor back to Salt Lake City.
The Jazz have predictably fallen into a tailspin ever since. Even the front office may not have envisioned things getting this unsightly: 3-17 with a wholly atrocious (and league-worst) minus-10.4 net rating since the deadline.
They've admittedly faced a difficult schedule here lately, but that isn't about to change, so the losses could continue to stockpile.
Washington Wizards (16-66)
30 of 30
Washington's recent, out-of-nowhere three-game winning streak added an unexpected twist to this projection, but we aren't buying much into it. Not when it was directly preceded by a five-game losing streak, and certainly not when said skid was only its sixth-longest of the season.
The Wizards remain in the infancy stage of their top-to-bottom overhaul, and they've yet to even lay the foundation for whatever comes next. For much of this season, Washington fans could at least avert their attention to intriguing rookie Bilal Coulibaly, but even that welcome distraction is gone, as the lottery pick was shut down by a wrist injury.
If this recent winning lasts any longer, Washington could shut down all useful contributors if needed to preserve its standing among the league's bottom three. Chances are, though, the talent gap this squad faces on a near-nightly basis will take care of that on its own.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com and current through games played on Tuesday.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on X, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
.png?w=480)
