NFL Divisional Sunday 2024 Takeaways: What's Next for Bills, Chiefs?
The Super Bowl is within striking distance. In some ways, Sunday's divisional-round games invoked Ace Ventura when it came to exorcising the demons that plagued at least one franchise and a downtrodden quarterback.
With Sunday's victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Detroit Lions will play in the NFC Championship Game for the first time in 31 years. Meanwhile, Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield should be looking at a fresh contract extension this offseason.
Alas, the potential dream matchup of the Lions and Buffalo Bills for one to collect their first Super Bowl victory won't happen, because Josh Allen and Co. can't seem to overcome Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs during the postseason.
Still, a certain vibe is invading the 2023 playoffs, and it's trending positively toward those teams still remaining and individuals with so much to prove.
Buccaneers Can Build on Unexpected Success by Retaining QB Baker Mayfield
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The Baker Mayfield experience was largely positive for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season, even though he threw a game-sealing interception during Sunday's 31-23 loss to the Detroit Lions in the divisional round of the playoffs.
One sour moment can't overshadow everything the team accomplished. The transition from Tom Brady to Mayfield wasn't seamless, but it went much smoother than expected.
Tampa Bay won one more regular-season game in 2023 than it did last year and captured another NFC South title. Along the way, Mayfield set career highs in completions (364), passing attempts (566), completion percentage (64.3), passing yards (4,044) and passing touchdowns (28).
During the postseason, the 2018 No. 1 overall draft pick posted back-to-back performances with 300 or more passing yards and three touchdown passes. Mayfield is the only quarterback in Buccaneers history to achieve that feat, per Fox Sports' Greg Auman.
Mayfield played on a one-year, prove-it deal this season, but his latest performance should help him earn a new contract. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the Buccaneers "want Baker Mayfield back next year" and "he wants to be back as well."
The price for Mayfield could be a sticking point. As well as he played at times this season, he's still not an elite quarterback. He's just in the right situation.
During a pregame interview on NBC, Mayfield said he lost confidence at his previous stops. Now, he said he's "definitely the most comfortable that [he's] ever been."
That doesn't mean he should make the same average annual salary as the Cincinnati Bengals' Joe Burrow, Los Angeles Chargers' Justin Herbert, Philadelphia Eagles' Jalen Hurts, Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes or Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen. Instead, Mayfield's number should fall somewhere among the next tier between $35-40 million annually.
The Buccaneers also need to bring back offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who already interviewed to become the Carolina Panthers' next head coach, and wide receiver Mike Evans, who is a pending free agent. Without those two, Mayfield won't be nearly as effective nor carry the same value, which is the case with most quarterbacks when they lose their top target and play-caller.
Mayfield found the right situation in Tampa Bay to thrive. The Buccaneers made if further this year than anyone expected, and the quarterback was a big reason why. It now falls on Tampa Bay's front office to keep its talented core together, add to it this offseason and continue to build toward a legitimate contender.
"He's had a hell of a year," head coach Todd Bowles told reporters after the game. He added that Mayfield earned the right to start next year.
Detroit Lions Find Themselves in Uncharted Territory, But Have Concerns Along O-Line
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It's impossible not to be happy for the long-suffering fans of the Detroit Lions, whose team is headed to the NFC Championship Game for the first time since the 1991 season.
The next step will be the hardest, though, particularly considering the injuries that the Lions suffered Sunday along their standout offensive line.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Lions featured a top-five offensive line during the regular season. The overall protection during Sunday's win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers held up, but left guard Jonah Jackson left the game with a knee injury, and center Frank Ragnow gutted his way through what looked like an ankle injury.
"Frank's a stud," head coach Dan Campbell told reporters in reference to Ragnow playing through the injury. "That's what he does."
However, Campbell said "it doesn't look good" for Jackson's chances of being available for next week's game, per the Detroit News' Justin Rogers.
Losing a Pro Bowl-caliber guard is bad enough, but the Lions will likely go to San Francisco with Ragnow not being 100 percent, either. As The Athletic's Nate Tice noted in December, Detroit's yards per play, success rate and EPA per play all dramatically dipped when the Pro Bowl center missed time during the regular season.
The 49ers will certainly attack Detroit's interior to blow up run plays and collapse the pocket. San Francisco features two excellent interior pass-rushers in Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead. Niners defensive coordinator Steve Wilks can also reduce defensive ends Nick Bosa and/or Chase Young over the guard and center in obvious passing situations.
Either way, life will be extremely difficult for the Lions' banged-up offensive line. Those injuries could very well be the difference between the Lions' first road playoff victory since 1957 and a Super Bowl berth or a postseason exit.
Will WR Stefon Diggs Be a Member of Buffalo Bills During During 2024 Campaign?
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Bills Mafia will go to bed tonight with those same dreaded words—"wide right"—ringing through their heads. But Tyler Bass' missed 44-yard field goal wasn't the moment when Buffalo lost 27-24 to the Kansas City Chiefs.
On the first play of the Bills' final drive, Josh Allen uncorked a perfect 60-yard pass to his top target, Stefon Diggs. The three-time Pro Bowl honoree didn't adjust properly, and the ball fell harmlessly through his arms to the ground. Allen targeted Diggs twice more during the same drive, with zero receptions.
The Bills' leading receiver, who posted his sixth straight 1,000-yard campaign this season, caught three passes for 21 yards against the Chiefs. That continued a downward trend that's been going on for a while.
In Buffalo's first six games, Diggs averaged 103.3 receiving yards per game. Since that point, his average flatlined at 48.9 yards per game. His production decreased and his drops increased.
Diggs didn't take any of the blame when his downturn was brought up by local Buffalo media.
"It's not because of me," the 30-year-old told reporters a little over a month ago.
Yes, opposing defenses' double-team rates increased. Other options like rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid and running back James Cook emerged in the passing game. But the Bills' WR1 hasn't been shy about discussing his discontent.
"I'm going to be honest: It's frustrating," Diggs said. "Being out there, I've got to do a lot of things to get open, and then a lot of things got to go right for me to get the ball.
"For me, when it doesn't happen, of course, I'm going to be frustrated. Y'all know how much of a competitor I am. I like to play at a high level, and I always want it to happen, and even when it doesn't materialize, I definitely get discouraged at a moment. But then I've got to shake back because I always look at it, like, my team still needs me."
Do the Bills really need a frustrated wide receiver on the field, one whose drop rate increased when it mattered the most, didn't make the play necessary to extend the season and holds a $27.9 million salary-cap charge in 2024?
The Bills could trade or release Diggs post-June 1 and save $19 million toward next season's cap, according to Over The Cap. They should strongly consider doing so.
As of the moment, Buffalo is projected to be $43.6 million over next year's cap, per Spotrac. General manager Brandon Beane must also decide on the free-agent fates of safety Micah Hyde, defensive tackles DaQuan Jones and Tim Settle, cornerback, Dane Jackson, defensive end A.J. Epenesa, defensive end Shaq Lawson and wide receiver Gabriel Davis.
The Bills haven't been able to overcome the Chiefs in the playoffs with Diggs on the roster. They should look to reallocate their financial resources elsewhere, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, and then select a quality wide receiver prospect in April's draft.
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Kansas City Chiefs Will Need Another Complete Offensive Performance Against Ravens
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Once again, Patrick Mahomes was magical. Travis Kelce kept the Swifties invested with his two touchdown catches. Andy Reid's offense was humming on its way to the Kansas City Chiefs' sixth straight AFC Championship Game appearance.
For Kansas City to reach the Super Bowl for a fourth time during that six-year stretch, its next contest in Baltimore must be more than the Mahomes and MaAuto Show.
Granted, the duo's two touchdown hookups during the 27-24 victory over the Buffalo Bills made them the most prolific postseason battery in NFL history with 16 touchdowns. They passed some guys named Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski and Joe Montana and Jerry Rice.
While Mahomes and Kelce drive the Chiefs offense, the offensive line serve as the motor, the running game provides the wheels and emerging wide receivers pick up the speed.
"Everybody has got to make plays in order to win playoffs games," Mahomes told reporters after Sunday's contest.
Up front, the Chiefs were stellar. The offensive line allowed zero sacks and only two quarterback hits. Kansas City's front five stymied the Bills' standout defensive tackles, Ed Oliver and Daquan Jones, who didn't manage a single pressure, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. The Chiefs also averaged 6.1 yards per carry.
Running back Isiah Pacheco deserves plenty of credit for that success on the ground. The 5'10" 216-pound back runs like he's Juggernaut. The Chiefs put the ball in Pacheco's hands instead of their all-world quarterback when they found themselves inside of the 5-yard line for their final score.
As of late, rookie Rashee Rice has been the breakthrough star of the Chiefs' passing attack. Fellow wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling showed up and showed out against the Bills, with two huge downfield catches for 62 yards. Valdes-Scantling can provide a critical vertical element when he's on his game.
Next weekend, Kansas City will face arguably the league's best schemed defense in Baltimore. The Ravens held quarterback C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans offense to 213 total yards and zero touchdowns during their divisional-round meeting Saturday. The Chiefs will need all these pieces to play well again to reach Las Vegas and possibly become the NFL's latest dynasty.
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